for Tuesday, 02 July 2013 [1:00 PM PhT]
for Tuesday, 02 July 2013 [1:00 PM PhT]
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 11:00 am today, the center of TS Rumbia (Gorio) was located over Guangxi Province...about 144 km northwest of Zhanjiang City, China...currently moving north-northwest with an accelerated forward speed of 35 km/hr in the general direction of the northern part of Guangxi Province.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly decreased to 85 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Rumbia (Gorio) remains an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 390 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Rumbia (Gorio) is estimated to be heavy (220 mm).
1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TS Rumbia (Gorio) is expected to continue moving north-northwestward during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Rumbia (Gorio) will continue to move over land across the northern part of Guangxi Province today...and through Guizhou Province on Wednesday.
Rumbia (Gorio) is forecast to gradually weaken into a Tropical Depression (TD) within the next 12 hours due to land interaction and dry continental air affecting the storm. It will dissipate into an area of low pressure on Wednesday noon.
The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:
WEDNESDAY NOON: Just an area of low pressure as it moves into the southern part of Guizhou Province...about 530 km north-northwest of Mong Cai, Vietnam [11AM JULY 03: 26.2N 107.1E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
INNER RAINBANDS - over land (Southern China). Affected Areas: Southern part of Guangxi Province. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over land (Southern China) and water (Rest of Gulf of Tonkin & the Northwestern part of South China Sea). Affected Areas: Leizhou Peninsula and some parts of Western Guangdong and the rest of Guangxi Province. Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 220 mm (heavy) along areas to the west, north and near the center of Rumbia (Gorio).
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Tue July 02, 2013
Class/Name: TS Rumbia (Gorio)
Location of Center: 22.2º N Lat 109.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 144 km NW of Zhanjiang City
Distance 2: 173 km ENE of Mong Cai, Vietnam
Distance 3: 251 km NNW of Haikou, Hainan Is.
Distance 4: 422 km W of Macau
Distance 5: 484 km W of Hong Kong
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph
Present Movement: NNW @ 35 kph
Towards: Guangxi Province
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [220 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 390 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): N/A
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
