13. Typhoon AERE (Marce/20w)                       
>> August 19-31, 2004

Aere: contributed by the United States, is the Marshallese word for 'storm.'

Storm Origins

An area of convection developed approximately 250 nm east of Pohnpei and was included as a suspect area with poor development potential in JTWC's STWO at 0600 UTC on 13 August. Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery revealed a weak LLCC situated in an environment of weak vertical shear and favourable divergence aloft. Deep convection increased in association with this LLCC on the 14th, and as the system began to consolidate JTWC issued the first in a series of TCFAs at 15/2200 UTC. This statement relocated the centre to a position 205 nm east of Fananu. The next day at 2200 UTC the disturbance was passing 40 nm north of Chuuk. A second TCFA was required at 17/0300 UTC to cover for a relocation and placed the centre 220 nm south-southeast of Guam. While microwave imagery revealed a well-defined mid-level circulation, an upper-level analysis indicated the area was under moderate shear at this time.

Another TCFA was issued at 18/0300 UTC as the suspect area passed 260 nm south of Guam. Signs of a weak LLCC were noted south of the deep convection in animated multi-spectral imagery. A STWO issued at 18/0600 UTC mentioned that while the development potential remained good, the system had become less organized over the previous six hours. At 18/1230 UTC the potential was dropped to poor after an 18/0330 UTC AMSR-E micro- wave image failed to show a distinct LLCC. However, deep convection began to consolidate once again over the LLCC and the potential was raised to fair at 2200 UTC. The final TCFA was issued at 19/0100 UTC when the system was passing 100 nm north of Yap. A 200-mb analysis indicated a more favourable environment with weak shear and good diffluence aloft. JMA first mentioned the disturbance as a tropical depression at 19/0600 UTC, and this was followed six hours later by JTWC's first warning.

Synoptic History

At the time of the first warning, issued at 1200 UTC on 19 August, Tropical Depression 20W was located 500 nm west of Guam and heading in a northwesterly direction at 10 kts along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level steering ridge. The system didn't appear particularly well- organized at this time, but it exhibited moderate convection and radial outflow. Based on low shear in the immediate vicinity of the storm, further development was expected and the system reached tropical storm status at 0000 UTC on 20 August. JMA also at this time upgraded the MSW to 35 kts (10-min avg) and assigned the name Aere. Tropical Storm Aere was relocated at 20/0600 UTC after animated multi-spectral imagery revealed that the LLCC had consolidated approximately 100 nm to the northeast of the 0000 UTC position. An upper-level LOW had been inhibiting development up to this point. However, the LOW shifted to the northwest of the tropical cyclone and freed the outflow pattern to the north. Overall, Tropical Storm Aere was looking healthier and by 20/1800 UTC the MSW had increased to 55 kts.

At 20/0000 UTC Typhoon Aere crossed into PAGASA's AOR and that agency named it Marce from their internal names list. At 21/0000 UTC Tropical Storm Aere/Marce was still tracking northwestward some 630 nm southeast of Okinawa, Japan. It was upgraded to typhoon intensity at 21/0600 UTC when the MSW had reached 65 kts. Multi-spectral satellite imagery showed a decrease in convective coverage but cloud tops had cooled sufficiently enough to support continued intensification. Typhoon Aere's intensity remained at 65-kts through the 21st and there was little change during the 22nd. At 22/0000 UTC enhanced water vapor imagery showed that dry air was being advected into the eastern and northern parts of its circulation while microwave data showed a lack of symmetric convection around the LLCC. The system was moving on its continuing northwesterly track and was located approximately 380 nm south of Naha, Okinawa. Aere edged a little closer to the Japanese island during the course of the day. JMA raised their 10-min MSW estimate to typhoon intensity at 22/1200 UTC.

At 23/0000 UTC Typhoon Aere was downgraded to a tropical storm briefly as shear increased due to a passing shortwave trough. The cyclone was located 200 nm south of Naha, Okinawa, at this time. Once the trough had passed by and the shear relaxed, JTWC raised the MSW back up to 65 kts and upgraded Aere back to typhoon strength. This intensity was maintained for the rest of the 23rd as the storm swayed from west- northwest to north-northwest and slowed its forward speed. Typhoon Aere began to intensify and had reached 75 kts by 23/1800 UTC when its 50-nm eye was located 250 nm south of Naha, Okinawa, and moving away from the island. At 24/0000 UTC deep convection had decreased to the north of the eye but the MSW continued to climb and reached a peak intensity of 85 kts at 24/1200 UTC. Aere's heading had been wobbling from northwest to west-northwest, but a definite westerly heading was finally established. As the storm crossed the northern tip of Taiwan it started to feel the effects of land interaction and subsequently began to weaken.

Typhoon Aere then turned west-southwestward at 25/0000 UTC and made its closest approach to Taipei, Taiwan, passing approximately 30 nm to the north. The MSW started to fall as the storm crossed northern Taiwan and headed into the Taiwan Strait. Aere had weakened to a 65-kt typhoon by the time it reached the Chinese coastline near Pingtan at 25/1200 UTC. It then turned southwestward, and this heading persisted into the next day. This peculiar track carried the storm past Xiamen around 25/1800 UTC and close to Shantou at 26/0000 UTC, seemingly en route to Hong Kong. At this time Aere was downgraded to tropical storm status and had lost much of its deep convection, leaving the LLCC completely exposed. Surface observations from Shantou reported wind speeds of around 10-15 kts. Aere lingered off Guangdong for awhile before turning west, and at the time of the final warning at 26/1200 UTC, was moving further inland as a 30-kt tropical depression approximately 115 nm northeast of Hong Kong. The remnants of Typhoon Aere remained identifiable in satellite images until around 28 August, and JMA maintained the left- overs as a tropical depression until 0000 UTC 31 August. JMA, NMCC, and HKO all estimated peak intensities of 80 kts (10-min avg). CWB considered Aere as a moderate typhoon with the MSW estimated at 75 kts. During the time that Aere/Marce was within PAGASA's AOR, the MSW set by that agency was 65 kts. The typhoon reached its maximum intensity after crossing PAGASA's western boundary at 23/1800 UTC. The lowest CP estimated by JMA was 955 mb.

 
Meteorological Observations from Japan

The data in this section was compiled and sent by Huang Chunliang of Fuzhou City, China. A special thanks to Chunliang for sending the information. (To convert metres/second (m/s) to knots, divide by 0.51444, or for an approximate conversion, double the m/s value.)

{Part I}. Ryukyu obs
====================

Station        Min SLP (hPa)      Peak SW (m/s)     Peak Gust (m/s) 
------------------------------------------------------------------- 
Miyakojima     971.0 [23/1546Z]   27.2 [23/1600Z]   51.3 [23/1546Z] 
Ishigakijima   961.7 [23/2305Z]   34.3 [24/0110Z]   56.0 [24/0036Z] 
Iriomotejima   961.1 [24/0037Z]   30.6 [24/0220Z]   45.2 [24/0204Z] 
Yonagunijima   976.6 [23/2241Z]   27.3 [23/2320Z]   43.5 [23/2316Z] 


Station           Storm total (mm)
-------------------------------------------
Miyakojima        280.5  [22/0600-24/1600Z]
Ishigakijima      314.5  [22/2100-25/1400Z]
Iriomotejima      265.0  [22/1400-25/1100Z]
Yonagunijima      202.0  [22/2000-25/0200Z]

Note 1: The 24-hr [23/1500-24-1500Z] accumulations reported by the 
four stations reached 164.0 mm, 204.0 mm, 192.5 mm and 147.5 mm, 
respectively.

Note 2: Miyakojima------WMO47927, Alt 40 m
        Ishigakijima----WMO47918, Alt  6 m
        Iriomotejima----WMO47917, Alt  9 m
        Yonagunijima----WMO47912, Alt 30 m


{Part II}. Focus on Ishigakijima, Okinawa (WMO 47918, ROIG,
           24.34 N 124.16E, Alt 6 m)
===========================================================

1. Introduction
---------------

The Island of Ishigakijima spent as long as 8 hrs (approximately)
within Aere's eye, which was about 110 km in diameter, during 
the storm. See the next section for the "eye obs".

2. Hourly sustained wind/rain/pressure obs
------------------------------------------

DD/HH (UTC)  Wind (mps/dir)    Rain in past 1 hr    Pressure in hPa 
                                                    (Land/SLP)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
23/08        17.9/NNE           6.5 mm              983.2/984.5
23/09        18.4/NNE          10.0 mm              982.3/983.6
23/10        16.0/NNE           4.5 mm              980.8/982.0
23/11        19.1/NNE           8.0 mm              979.6/980.8
23/12        19.5/NNE           7.0 mm              978.9/980.1
23/13        18.6/NNE           7.5 mm              976.9/978.1
23/14        21.8/N             8.0 mm              972.7/973.9
23/15        24.6/N            23.0 mm              967.7/968.9
23/16        11.7/N             6.0 mm              963.8/965.0
23/17         6.6/NW            0.0 mm              961.8/963.0
23/18         6.6/NW            0.0 mm              960.9/962.1
23/19         8.2/W             0.0 mm              960.9/962.1
23/20        11.0/WSW           0.5 mm              961.6/962.8
23/21        15.8/SW            0.0 mm              961.8/963.0
23/22        17.7/SW            0.5 mm              961.9/963.1
23/23        23.8/SW            0.0 mm              961.1/962.3
24/00        26.9/SW            2.5 mm              963.1/964.3
24/01        30.6/SW           20.0 mm              965.0/966.2
24/02        32.2/SSW          35.0 mm              971.1/972.3
24/03        28.3/SSW          18.0 mm              974.0/975.2
24/04        27.7/SW            8.5 mm              976.4/977.6
24/05        26.4/SSW          15.0 mm              977.7/978.9
24/06        25.3/S            21.5 mm              980.2/981.5
24/07        22.4/SSW          26.5 mm              980.9/982.2
24/08        22.2/SSW           8.5 mm              982.1/983.4
24/09        22.5/S             9.0 mm              983.1/984.4
24/10        20.8/S             7.0 mm              983.8/985.0
24/11        16.4/S             9.5 mm              986.3/987.6
24/12        15.5/S             5.0 mm              987.2/988.5
24/13        15.8/S             5.0 mm              988.0/989.3
24/14        17.4/S             5.5 mm              987.9/989.2

Note 1: None of the Aere-related hourly sustained winds recorded 
outside the period [23/08-24/14Z] reached gale force.

Note 2: The hourly values may not represent the true extrema.  
Please refer to Part I for the extrema of the Ishigakijima obs.


{Part III} References (Japanese versions only)
==============================================

http://www.data.kishou.go.jp
http://www.okinawa-jma.go.jp

 
Meteorological Observations from China

All the information in this section was compiled and sent by Huang Chunliang. A special thanks to Chunliang for his efforts. To convert wind speed in meters/second (m/s) to knots (kts), divide m/s by 0.51444. For an approximate conversion, simply double the m/s value.

{Part I} Landfalls
==================

According to the NMC bulletins, Typhoon 0418 (Aere) made four
landfalls in the mainland of Fujian Province, which possesses 
the most flexuous coastline of China:  Typhoon 0418 (Aere) 
made landfall in Gaoshan Town, Fuqing City (a sub-city of 
Fuzhou City), Fujian Province, around 25/0830 UTC with a MSW 
of 36 m/s and a CP of 970 hPa.  As a result, Aere turned out 
to be the first tropical cyclone to make landfall in Fuzhou 
with typhoon intensity since Typhoon 0102 (Chebi). 
Interestingly, the town of Gaoshan was exactly where deadly 
Typhoon 0102 (Chebi) made landfall on June 23, 2001.

Typhoon 0418 (Aere) next made landfall in Shishi City (a sub-
city of Quanzhou City), Fujian Province, around 25/1330 UTC 
with a MSW of 33 m/s and a CP of 970 hPa.  Severe Tropical 
Storm 0418 (Aere) also made landfall in Gangwei Town, Longhai 
City (a sub-city of Zhangzhou City), Fujian Province, around 
25/1830 UTC with a MSW of 30 m/s and a CP of 975 hPa.

Finally, Tropical Storm 0418 (Aere) made landfall in 
Dongshan County, Zhangzhou City, Fujian Province, around 
26/0230 UTC with a MSW of 20 m/s and a CP of 985 hPa.

This typhoon also passed over at least two of the Fujian 
islands, including Pingtan Dao (Fuzhou City) and Nanri 
Dao (Putian City), the former island being the fifth 
biggest one in China:

(1) Typhoon Aere made landfall in Pingtan County, Fuzhou 
City, Fujian Province, around 25/0750 UTC. 

(2) Typhoon Aere made landfall in Nanri Town, Xiuyu District, 
Putian City, Fujian Province, just shortly after moving into 
the sea from Fuqing's Longgao Peninsula, where the typhoon 
made its first landfall on the mainland.


{Part II} Fujian Obs
====================

(1) Rain
========

During the 72-hr period ending at 27/0000Z, rains >100 mm 
were recorded in 26 cities/counties, 7 of which reported 
rains >200 mm with Fuding (located in Ningde City) reporting 
the highest amount of 663 mm.(Qinglan Reservoir located in 
Zherong County, Ningde City, reported the highest 24-hr 
accumulation of 504 mm.)

(2) Wind
========

13 WMO stations of coastal Fujian reported gusts of gale 
force or higher:

       Station                    Peak Gust
------------------------------------------------
Zherong, Ningde City             32 m/s (ESE)
Fu'an, Ningde City               20 m/s (ENE)
Fuding, Ningde City              20 m/s (ENE)
Pingtan, Fuzhou City             27 m/s (NNE)
Fuqing, Fuzhou City              20 m/s (NE)
Xianyou, Putian City             20 m/s (NNE)
Tong'an, Xiamen City             22 m/s (NW)
Xiamen, Xiamen City              33 m/s (NNW)
Chongwu, Quanzhou City           25 m/s (NW)
Zhangpu, Zhangzhou City          21 m/s (N)
Dongshan, Zhangzhou City         19 m/s (W)
Longhai, Zhangzhou City          21 m/s (WNW)

All the insular automatic stations of northern and middle 
Fujian reported gusts of typhoon force or higher: 

Station                    Peak Gust           DD/HH
--------------------------------------------------------
Taishan                  37.1 m/s (N)         24/1600Z
Xiyang                   43.8 m/s (ENE)       25/0300Z
Pingtan                  35.8 m/s (NNE)       25/0800Z
Nanri                    43.8 m/s (NW)        25/0800Z
Weitou                   34.4 m/s (S)         25/1600Z

{Part III} Taiwan Obs
=====================

(1) Rain
========

A few stations recorded storm totals exceeding 1000 mm:

      Station                        Rainfall (mm)
--------------------------------------------------------
Matala, Miaoli County          1546 [22/1600-25/1200Z]
Pai Lan, Hsinchu County        1335 [22/1600-25/1200Z]
Hsuen-lin, Taichung County     1243 [22/1600-25/1500Z]

(2) Wind
========

Only those stations that reported peak sustained winds 
of gale force or peak gusts of typhoon force are given:

Station                 Peak Sustained Wind        Peak Gust
                        (mps/dir/Local Date)   (mps/dir/Local Date)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
An Bu (WMO46691)          25.9/350/24th          42.2/10 /24th
Taipei (WMO46692/58968)   13.3/320/24th          33.1/350/24th
Chu-tzu-hu (WMO46693)     10.2/180/25th          33.1/20 /25th
Keelung (WMO46694)        17.9/210/25th          34.4/240/25th
Ilan (WMO46708)           20.9/330/24th          34.1/330/24th
Lanyu (WMO46762/59567)    30.4/250/24th          44.1/250/24th
Kinmen (WMO46736/59135)   24.1/270/25th          31.9/280/25th

{Part IV} Zhejiang Obs
======================

During the 31-hr period ending at 25/0700Z, rains >100 
mm were recorded at 14 stations with Haishan (162.7 mm), 
Pingyang (157.4 mm) and Wencheng (152.6 mm) ranking the top three.  
Significant gust reports included:  Zhaoshandu, Rui'an City 
(coastal station)--34.9 m/s; Beiji (insular station)--31.4 m/s; 
Nanji (insular station)--30.4 m/s; Dachen (insular 
station)--30.1 m/s.

Around 24/1755Z, 6 villages located in Gaoqiao Town, Yinzhou 
District, Ningbo City, were struck by a tornado, which was 
triggered by Typhoon Aere.  The tornado did cause some 
economic losses, but no casualties were reported.

{Part V} Guangdong Obs
======================

Torrential rains lasted for nearly five days (Sep 26--30) 
in Guangdong during the period when the remnant depression, 
formerly Typhoon Aere, traversed the province from the 
neighboring Fujian. 

Zhuhai City was hammered by Aere's downpours when the remnant arrived
in the mouth of Pearl River on the 29th.  Five stations recorded 6-hr
[0000-0600Z] rainfall amounts that ranged from 100 mm to 160 mm.  The
most torrential rain--38 mm/minute--was reported by the urban area of
the city.

{Part VI} Other Obs (from Hainan Province, Hong Kong & Macao Special
          Administrative Regions
====================================================================

Station                         Coordinates         Rainfall (mm)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Haikou, Hainan                 20.03N 110.35E   154.0 [28/00-29/00Z]
Dongfang, Hainan               19.10N 108.62E   312.8 [27/00-30/00Z]
Danxian, Hainan                19.52N 109.58E   252.9 [27/00-30/00Z]
Hong Kong Int. AP, Hong Kong   22.32N 113.92E   184.1 [28/00-30/00Z]
Taipa Grande, Macao            22.17N 113.57E   215.0 [28/00-30/00Z]

The HKO report on TY Aere can be found at the following link:

   

{Part VII} Damage and Casualties
================================

(1) Fujian
==========

Preliminary statistics on August 26 indicated that the typhoon 
had caused 2.485 billion yuan of direct economic losses and 
was responsible for two deaths in the province.  Aere also 
affected 3,479,900 residents in 421 towns of 48 counties of 6 
cities in Fujian, where three cities were flooded, 10,100 houses 
were toppled, 236 embankments and thousands of water conservancy 
facilities were damaged.  Some 937,000 people were evacuated and 
10,676 vessels were called back before the typhoon's arrival.

(2) Taiwan
==========

Typhoon Aere pounded northern Taiwan with torrential rains and 
strong winds before hugging the coast of Fujian, causing wide-
spread disruption to air and sea transport.  It caused 24 deaths 
and left nine people missing in the region.  Water supply to 
910,000 households was cut off, and power supply to 360,000 
households was disrupted.  The economic losses were estimated to 
have been at least NT$ 400 million.

{Part VIII} First "Black Typhoon" for Fuzhou
============================================

The local government of Fuzhou, the provincial capital of Fujian,
ordered work to stop at all construction sites and cancelled 
after-class activities at schools and universities when the city 
was under their first Black Typhoon Signal in history.  (Starting 
from 2003, a system of color-coded typhoon warning signals labeled 
white, green, yellow, red and black in an ascending order was 
employed in Fujian Province to give information to the residents 
on the existence and the potential threat of a tropical cyclone.  
A Black Typhoon Signal, the most severe of the five grades, 
indicates that a tropical cyclone is affecting the district or is 
to affect the district within the next 12 hours with sustained
wind of Beaufort Force 12 or higher.)

Typhoon Aere played havoc with the traffic of the city.  Flights
associated with the Changle Int. AP, which happened to be the 
destination of my flight which departed from Shanghai (please refer 
to Part IX for HCl's encounter with Typhoon Aere), were either 
cancelled or delayed and the whole airdrome had to be shut down for 
several hours during the typhoon.  Meanwhile, the traffic of the 
urban area, as well as several thruways starting from the city, were 
also under extraordinary control. Trains and buses travelling on 
local short-distance routes, however, were immune from the storm.

{Part IX} HCl's "Reconnaissance Mission" of Aere
================================================

Below is my experience of coming up against Typhoon Aere in 
the air 10,000 meters above the sea level.  (Time in BJT, 
i.e., GMT + 8 hours.)

I booked an airline ticket of MF8548 (Shanghai--Fuzhou, 
05:05 p.m. on the 25th of August) 9 days ahead of schedule.   
Of course, I didn't know beforehand that it would become my 
first "reconnaissance mission" of a typhoon, which shared 
the same destination with me exactly on the same afternoon.

I had just arrived at the Shanghai Hongqiao Int. AP that 
afternoon when I saw the notice, saying that MF8548 had been 
cancelled due to the severe weather condition at the port of 
destination.  Nevertheless, a few hours later we were informed 
that all the scheming passengers of MF8548 had been incorporated 
into another delayed flight, MF8542, which should have been the 
first one heading for Fuzhou that afternoon.

My plane eventually took off from Shanghai Hongqiao Int. AP 
in good weather condition at 09:35 p.m.  So the take-off and 
climb were smooth enough for me to enjoy the beautiful nocturnal 
view of Shanghai in a merry mood.  As soon as we reached 
cruising altitude, the public address announced to the 
passengers that the plane was scheduled to arrive at the port 
of destination on time at 10:35 p.m.

Being on a night flight for the first time (though not out of 
my original intention), I was fairly busy looking out of the 
window just next to my seat--12F--during the in-flight services.  
At first I managed to see nothing but the faint horizon.  
However, as we flew more and more southward, the grey clouds 
emerged and then increased gradually. I also noticed that all 
the video screens overhead were kept off all the way.  Besides, 
everything remained well-regulated with a few weak turbulences 
until the "landing time" (of Plan A) drew near.

A powerful turbulence burst occurred around 10:20 p.m. and 
lasted for nearly two minutes.    The plane was bounced so 
violently that one of the passengers became sick.  I realized 
afterwards that the "Fasten Seat Belts" sign lit before the 
turbulence, was not cancelled until the plane pulled in.)

It was 10:35 p.m., the exact scheduled time for landing, but 
the plane refused to even drop in altitude!  As a result, the 
majority of the passengers (including me), whether acquaintances 
or not, began to whisper to each other.  Before long, the public 
address sounded again in due course, notifying that the landing 
time had been delayed to 11:05 p.m. (so they were going to go 
with Plan B), which would become the bona fide one.

During most of the "overtime", we were lacking in everything 
except one-by-one turbulences, among which, another powerful 
one made another passenger ill.  This one also lasted for 
nearly two minutes when the plane was struggling through the 
typhoon as if were riding on an obstinate and unruly bronco.
 
Surprisingly, the eventual landing turned out to be a relatively
smooth one. "Thank goodness!  At last we're safe now!"...some of 
the passengers remarked when the plane was sliding on the damp 
airstrip of Fuzhou Changle Int. AP around 11:05 p.m.
  
Looking back on the satellite pics, the hazy eye of Typhoon Aere,
which had weakened into an intensity of 65 knots (per NMC), was 
located near 24.6 N/118.6 E when my plane was landing near 
26.0 N/119.5 E.

 
Damage and Casualties

News sources to date indicate that Taiwan took the brunt of Typhoon Aere. Thirty-four people were killed as a result of the storm, and fifteen died as a mudslide buried a remote mountain village in the north of the island. Agricultural losses were estimated at 7.7 million New Taiwan dollars ($US 313,000).

No casualties were reported from China, thanks to the evacuation of 930,000 people from low-lying and coastal areas. More than 40,000 fishing boats were returned to port and flights in the region were cancelled.

Forty-three deaths in the Philippines were caused by heavy rains induced by the typhoon. Nearly 16,000 people were evacuated from homes engulfed in floodwaters. A swollen river near the northern province of Nueva Ecija blocked traffic on a main road and stranded hundreds of commuters overnight. Eight provinces in northern and central Luzon were most severely affected with 70% of the provinces under water at one point.

Additional articles on the aftermath of Typhoon Aere may be found at the following link:

http://www.reliefweb.int/w/rwb.nsf/vLND

(Report written by Kevin Boyle with significant contributions by Huang Chunliang)

© 2004-2005 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved.

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