Issued: 11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Tue 02 October 2012
Next Update: 5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT)
Tropical Storm MICHAEL (JUAN) newly-formed system over the Western Pacific Ocean, moving into the Philippine Sea with a threat to Bicol Region and Quezon Provinces.
Residents and visitors along Bicol Region and Quezon Provinces should watch the development of TS Michael (Juan).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
MICHAEL (JUAN) is currently moving west-northwest with a forward speed of 20 kph in the general direction of Bicol Region and Quezon Provinces.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 110 km/hr (60 knots) with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 110 kilometers (60 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 270 kilometers (145 nautical miles) from the center. MICHAEL is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers (240 nautical miles) across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Michael is extreme (530 mm).
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
MICHAEL (JUAN) is expected to continue moving west-northwest during the next 3 days. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will pass very close to Catanduanes Island later today and cross Camarines Sur on Wednesday morning. By Thursday morning, Michael may pass over Metro Manila before heading towards the West Philippine Sea.
Some strengthening of its wind speed is forecast during the next 24 to 48 hours...and Michael could become a Super Typhoon before landfall on Wednesday.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Making landfall over Camarines Sur [11AM OCT 03: 13.6N 123.6E @ 240kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Enters PAR as it moves westward...remains over the West Philippine Sea, far away from land...intensifying [11AM OCT 04: 15.0N 115.5E @ 95kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Accelerating across the West Philippine Sea, towards Vietnam...exits PAR...about 610 km (ESE) closer to Da Nang, Vietnam [11AM OCT 05: 15.1N 113.8E @ 100kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas.. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the West Coast of Luzon (from Ilocos Provinces down to Batangas, and Mindoro including Lubang Island. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 520 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Michael (Juan) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Tue October 02, 2012
Class/Name: Tropical Storm Michael (Juan)
Location of Center: 12.7º N Lat 135.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 96 km (W) closer to P.A.R.
Distance 2: 523 km (W) away from San Fernando City
Distance 3: 525 km (WNW) away from Dagupan City
Distance 4: 598 km (SE) away from Hainan, China
Distance 5: 643 km (WNW) away from Metro Manila
Distance 6: 769 km (ENE) away from Da Nang, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
