for Monday, 23 May 2011 [7:15 AM PhT]
for Monday, 23 May 2011 [7:15 AM PhT]
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
CURRENT I.T.C.Z. (MONSOON TROUGH) INTENSITY: STRONG >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy with scattered to widespread showers, rains & thunderstorms will prevail along the following affected areas: SOUTHERN LUZON, BICOL REGION, VISAYAS & MINDANAO. Light to moderate SE to variable winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will be expected.
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Mon May 23 2011
Location of Center: 10.9º N Lat 134.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 410 km (220 nm) North of Palau Is., FSM
Distance 2: 975 km (525 nm) ESE of Bororngan City
Distance 3: 1070 km (577 nm) ESE of Catarman, N.Samar
Distance 4: 1135 km (613 nm) ESE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 5: 1245 km (672 nm) ESE of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Philippine Sea
CPA near Bicol Coast: 2AM-8PM Thu May 26
24hr Rainfall Acumm (near center): 510 mm (Very High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy) new!
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 19 ft (5.7 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 AM PhT Mon May 23
SONGDA (CHEDENG) is expected to continue intensifying while maintaining its WNW track into the Philippine Sea within the next 2 days. The storm is likely to be upgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon later this afternoon or earlier [2PM MAY 23: 11.2N 133.5E @ 120kph...2AM MAY 24: 11.8N 132.1E @ 140kph]. As SONGDA moves across the warm Philippine Sea - it will therefore gain more strength - becoming a Category 2 Typhoon tomorrow afternoon or evening (Tuesday) [2PM MAY 24: 12.1N 130.9E @ 160kph...2AM MAY 25: 12.7N 129.6E @ 175kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. SONGDA (Pre-CHEDENG) is a strong Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 150 kilometers (80 nautical miles) from the center. SONGDA is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers (240 nautical miles).
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a major Category 3 Typhoon while turning NW'ly across the Philippine Sea...passing to the NE of Bicol Region...with a distance of about 325 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes [2AM MAY 26: 14.4N 127.1E @ 195kph]. FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Steadily intensifying as it begins to turn more NNW'ly...just to the east of Isabela in Northern Luzon...about 320 km East of Ilagan City, Isabela [2AM MAY 27: 17.2N 124.8E @ 205kph]. SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Upgraded to near-Super Typhoon status (Category 4) as it starts to recurve to the North...passing to the east of the Batanes Group of Islands...about 155 km East of Basco, Batanes [2AM MAY 28: 20.6N 123.5E @ 215kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
SONGDA's CDO continues to organize near its center. Latest satellite imagery continues to show a possible eye formation underneath the cirrus shield canopy - a sign that the system is near typhoon strength. Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - remains over water (Philippine Sea)...possible "Eye" forming underneath. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - no longer affecting Yap and Ulithi Islands...now over water. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) will continue to prevail along these bands until tonight.
OUTER RAINBANDS - continues to spread across most parts of the Caroline Islands including Palau, Western Micronesia & the southeasternmost part of the Philippine Sea - light to moderate winds (<30 kph) will be expected along these bands. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 300 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 520 mm (very high) near the center of SONGDA. [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
