for Thursday, 28 October 2010 [6:45 PM PhT]
for Thursday, 28 October 2010 [6:45 PM PhT]
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Thu Oct 28 2010
Location of Eye: 25.3º N Lat 129.7º E Lon {Radar Fix}
Distance 1: 215 km (115 nm) SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 365 km (197 nm) South of Naje Is., Japan
Distance 3: 815 km (440 nm) East of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 950 km (513 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 215 kph (115 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 260 kph (140 kts)
Present Movement: NE @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Ryukyus-Southern Honshu Area
24-hr Total Rainfall (near center): 350 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 937 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Size (in Diameter): 965 km (520 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 32 ft (9.7 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 PM PhT Thu Oct 28
CHABA is expected to continue tracking NE-ward in the direction of Southern Honshu for the next 2 days. It will then start to lose strength while it begins transition into an Extratropical Cyclone. On Saturday evening, CHABA will move through the coastline of Southern Honshu, passing more or less 80 km south of Tokyo [2PM OCT 29: 28.0N 132.3E @ 175kph...2AM OCT 30: 30.1N 134.3E @ 150kph...2PM OCT 30: 33.1N 137.2E @ 120kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 215 km/hr (115 knots) with higher gusts. CHABA is a Category 4 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will start to weaken later tonight or tomorrow. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 85 kilometers (45 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 340 kilometers (185 nautical miles). CHABA is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 965 kilometers (520 nautical miles).
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes Extratropical as it exits the Southern Coast of Honshu...accelerating NE to ENE...about 520 km South of Hokkaido, Japan [2PM OCT 31: 38.6N 146.8E @ 75kph]. MONDAY AFTERNOON: Passing south of Kamchatka Peninsula or over the NW Pacific Ocean [2PM NOV 01: 45.8N 161.2E @ 65kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
CHABA continues to display a large, symmetric 65-km eye with strong eyewall convection. Below are the summary of the typhoon's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
LARGE SYMMETRIC EYE [65-km in diameter] - remains at sea (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - remains at sea (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting land areas. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER SPIRAL RAINBANDS - still affecting Okinawa and will spread across most parts of Ryukyu Islands later tonight. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (65-117 kph) can be expected along these bands.
OUTER SPIRAL RAINBANDS - still affecting Ryukyu Islands, where moderate to strong winds (<65 kph) can be expected along these bands today. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24-HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (light, moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 350 mm (heavy) near the center of CHABA [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4 to 18 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Eastern Taiwan, Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands today...and across the southern coastlines of Japan beginning tonight until tomorrow. Minimal to extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Southern Japan and the Batanes Group today. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
CURRENT NORTHEAST MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with passing showers or rains can be expected along these following affected areas: NORTHERN & EASTERN LUZON, BICOL REGION. Lower temperatures (less than 30 degrees celsius) with cooler light to moderate North and NE winds (not in excess of 25 kph) can be expected today.
CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread showers, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: VISAYAS, MASBATE, PALAWAN & MINDANAO. Light to moderate NW, SE to variable winds (not in excess of 25 kph) can be expected today.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
