for Thursday, 26 May 2011 [1:00 AM PhT]
for Thursday, 26 May 2011 [1:00 AM PhT]
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* SONGDA's CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy with occasional squalls, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN & WESTERN MINDANAO. Light to moderate SW to Westerly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Time/Date: 12:00 AM PhT Thu May 26 2011
Location of Eye: 13.6º N Lat 127.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 305 km (165 nm) ENE of Catarman, N.Samar
Distance 2: 325 km (175 nm) East of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 355 km (192 nm) ENE of Sorsogon City
Distance 4: 385 km (208 nm) ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 410 km (222 nm) ENE of Iriga City
Distance 6: 430 km (232 nm) ESE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 7: 665 km (360 nm) ESE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 195 kph (105 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 240 kph (130 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Philippine Sea
CPA near Bicol Coast: Ongoing til 8AM Today
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 320 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 944 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft (9.1 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 9:00 PM PhT Wed May 25
SONGDA (CHEDENG) is expected to continue intensifying as it moves NW to NNW across the Philippine Sea, east of Luzon for the next 2 days. The typhoon is likely to pass more or less 300 km to the ENE of Bicol Region later today & shall be reaching Category 4 strength.
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (THU): Upgraded to Category 4 as it turns back to the NW...about 260 km East of Guigmoto, Catanduanes [2AM MAY 26: 13.8N 126.7E @ 215kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (THU): Starting to move farther away from Catanduanes...about 220 km NE of Pandan, Catanduanes [2PM MAY 26: 15.3N 125.8E @ 220kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: At near-Super Typhoon strength as it turns more NNW-ward...about 275 km East of Palanan Bay, Isabela [2AM MAY 27: 16.9N 125.1E @ 230kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Starts to decay slowly as it turns more Northerly while moving across the Northern Philippine Sea...about 315 km East of Calayan Island (Balintang Channel) [2PM MAY 27: 19.0N 124.5E @ 220kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 195 km/hr (105 knots) with higher gusts. SONGDA (CHEDENG) is now a Category 3 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 65 kilometers (35 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 215 kilometers (115 nautical miles). SONGDA is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 665 kilometers (360 nautical miles).
CATANDUANES: about 215 km NE of Pandan or 250 km NE of Virac [ETA: between 8:00-11:00 AM Tomorrow].
CAMARINES SUR: about 270 km ENE of Caramoan or 340 km ENE of Metro Naga [ETA: between 9:00-11:00 AM Tomorrow].
ALBAY: about 315 km ENE of Legazpi City [ETA: between 2:00-4:00 AM Tomorrow].
SORSOGON: about 290 km ENE of Sorsogon City [ETA: between 2:00-4:00 AM Tomorrow].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Recurves towards the NNE as it moves out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...approaching Okinawa Island [2PM MAY 28: 24.2N 126.0E @ 195kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Accelerating ENE-ward while passing to the south of Kyushu, Japan...becoming Extratropical [2PM MAY 29: 30.0N 132.4E @ 150kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Attains Extratropical status while accelerating ENE-ward across the North Pacific Ocean [2PM MAY 30: 33.8N 144.2E @ 95kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
SONGDA's circulation improving as the system slows down...irregular eye can now be seen on satellite imageries. Below are the summary of the typhoon's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CLOUD-FILLED EYE - still over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - still over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - still over water...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (65-117 kph) can be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across the Bicol Region, Masbate, & Eastern Visayas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 320 mm (high) near the center of SONGDA. [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Bicol Region & Samar Provinces tonight until tomorrow. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern Visayas and Eastern Luzon tonight until tomorrow. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) 
Now In Effect: CATANDUANES, SORSOGON, ALBAY, CAMARINES SUR, CAMARINES NORTE, & SAMAR PROVINCES.
The above areas will experience stormy weather - where winds of 60-100 kph can be expected beginning tonight until tomorrow. Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning tonight until tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
In Effect: MARINDUQUE, MASBATE, BURIAS IS., TICAO IS., QUEZON, POLILLO IS., AURORA, NORTHERN LEYTE, & BILIRAN IS.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
External Links for TY SONGDA (CHEDENG)
PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0411.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
>> T2K Weather Station [Live Update] >>
Note: New sensors installed (Davis Vantage Vue)
Notes: T2K translates all technical data terms into layman's form from JTWC and other source agencies for public understanding. Do not use this for life/death decision, kindly refer to your country's official warnings/bulletins. This site is intended for additional information purposes only. Local times are based on Philippine / Hong Kong / Shanghai Standard Times. Pressure Estimates & Philipppine Storm Warning Signals by: NRL & PAGASA. Max Wave Height by: NPMOC (USA). Live Naga City weather conditions (if available) taken from T2K`s new DAVIS VANTAGE VUE Digital Weather Station.
THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BETWEEN 12:00 TO 1:00 AM (16-17 GMT) TODAY. 
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