for Monday, 30 August 2010 [6:45 PM PhT]
for Monday, 30 August 2010 [6:45 PM PhT]
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)*
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Mon Aug 30 2010
Location of Center: 20.9º N Lat 116.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 280 km (150 nm) South of Shantou, China
Distance 2: 320 km (173 nm) ESE of Hong Kong
Distance 3: 530 km (285 nm) WNW of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: S @ 01 kph (0.5 kt)
Towards: Eastern Guangdong
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 240 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 405 km (220 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Mon Aug 30
TS LIONROCK is expected to track NE for the first 12 hours, before turning northward...becoming a strong tropical storm tomorrow afternoon [2PM AUG 31: 21.8N 117.8E @ 100kph]. The storm will be moving closer towards the southern coast of Eastern Guangdong on Wednesday afternoon [2PM SEP 01: 23.3N 117.9E @ 85kph]. On this forecast track, LIONROCK will make landfall over Eastern Guangdong Wednesday evening.
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 85 km/hr (45 kts) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Just a remnant low pressure...dissipating over the mountainous terrain of Guangdong Province [2PM SEP 02: 24.7N 116.4E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
LIONROCK's circulation continues to rotate along the northern portion of the South China Sea...Northern outer-most rainbands continues to linger along the southern shores of Eastern Guangdong. If the forecast track goes well, Tropical Storm Force Winds are expected to reach Southeastern Guangdong by Wednesday afternoon (Sep 01). Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 240 mm (heavy) near the center of LIONROCK. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
CURRENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing on-&-off showers, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON (ILOCOS REGION DOWN TO ZAMBALES) AND BATANES-CALAYAN-BABUYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected.
Tropical Disturbance 92W (LPA/1007 MB) is now TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W. A separate page on this newly-formed system will be available on this website soon.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
