for Wednesday, 08 September 2010 [6:51 AM PhT]
for Wednesday, 08 September 2010 [6:51 AM PhT]
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 36 hours)*
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed Sep 08 2010
Location of Center: 35.8º N Lat 134.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 135 km (73 nm) NE of Okayama, Japan
Distance 2: 150 km (80 nm) NW of Osaka, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: East @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Towards: Honshu
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 130 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 480 km (260 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 ft (4.8 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1 feet [0.3 m]
Wunder Final TrackMap (for Public): 8 PM PhT Tue Sep 07
TS MALOU is expected to continue moving on a fast-ENE track...will become Extratropical this evening, while off the NW coast of Honshu, Japan [2AM SEP 08: 35.7N 133.3E @ 55kph]. The system will weaken significantly upon traversing the Japan Alps over at Honshu tomorrow afternoon [2PM SEP 08: 36.1N 137.3E @ 35kph], and will pass just to the north of Metropolitan Tokyo tomorrow evening, before moving back out to sea [2AM SEP 09: 36.7N 143.2E @ 35kph].
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) has decreased to 65 km/hr (35 kts) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 km/hr) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center, especially along the NE quadrant.
MALAKAS is a large-sized tropical cyclone with gale-force winds extending outward up to 830 kilometers (450 nautical miles) in diameter.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
MALOU's deep rain bands are no longer affecting the eastern part of South Korea, but will continue to spread across the northern coastlines of Honshu. Tropical Storm Conditions over Tsushima Island has quickly receded with improving weather overnight. Strong winds w/ some rains will be felt across the northern parts of Honshu overnight, reaching the central part by tomorrow.. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 50 mm (light rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 160 mm (Heavy) near the center of MALOU. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rains and heavy thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: REST OF LUZON particularly EXTREME NORTHERN PROVINCES OF LUZON. Light SSW or SW winds (not in excess of 30 kph) can be expected along these areas.
Strong Tropical Disturbance 90W (LPA/1004 MB) just east of Taiwan...continues to be bombarded by a 35-km/hr-upper-level winds (Vertical Wind Shear), thereby, displacing its thick-rain-cloud convection to the south and west of its center. It was located near lat 22.1N lon 122.7E...or about 190 km NNE of Basco, Batanes...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph near the center...drfiting WSW slowly. Moderate to heavy rains will continue to affect the smaller islands of Extreme Northern Luzon (Batanes, Itbayat, Calayan and Babuyan Group of Islands). The 24 to 48-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system remains at 70%. Click here to view current satellite visible image and flash animation.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
