for Saturday, 23 October 2010 [6:30 AM PhT]
for Saturday, 23 October 2010 [6:30 AM PhT]
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sat Oct 23 2010
Location of Ill-Defined Center: 17.2º N Lat 136.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 125 km (68 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 1015 km (548 nm) NW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 3: 1450 km (785 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 4: 1530 km (827 nm) East of Ilagan, Isabela
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Philippine Sea
12-hr Total Rainfall (near center): 230 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft (3.9 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunde TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Sat Oct 23
16W is expected to track westward for the next 24 hours...slowly intensifying and will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) later this afternoon. The system will attain Tropical Storm strength tomorrow Sunday afternoon and begin to turn WNW slowly across the Philippine Sea by early Monday morning [2AM OCT 24: 17.3N 133.8E @ 55kph...2PM OCT 24: 17.6N 132.9E @ 65kph...2AM OCT 25: 18.1N 132.0E @ 75kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts.
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Turns more to the north slowly while over the northern part of the Philippine Sea...about 995 km East of Calayan Is., Cagayan, PH [2AM OCT 26: 19.2N 131.0E @ 100kph]. WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Continuing crawling northward over open seas...about 905 km east of Itbayat, Batanes, PH...almost a Typhoon [2AM OCT 27: 21.0N 130.5E @ 110kph]. THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Attains Typhoon status (Category 1) as it drifts northward towards the Ryukyu Islands...about 940 km ENE of Itbayat, Batanes, PH [2PM OCT 27: 21.4N 130.4E @ 110kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
16W's developing circulation remains sheared-off, with most of its rain-cloud convection located about 150 km to the south & SW of its low-level center. Below are the summary of the cyclone's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - None (click here to know more about CDO).
DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - still weak and disorganized, sheared to the SW or over the Philippine Sea (click here to know more about Rainbands). 12-HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 150 mm (light to heavy rain) can be expected along the developing rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 230 mm (heavy) located along 16W's periphery [view current NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - None (click here to know more about storm surge).
CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread showers, rains & frequent thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: MOST PARTS OF THE PHILIPPINES. Light to moderate SW, South, SE winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected today. The prevailing strong La Niña conditions enhances ITCZs to be more active across the Philippines.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
