I. Tracking Map
[Updated every 6-hours: 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, 18Z]

II. Advisory & Prognosis
[Updated every 6-hours: 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, & 18Z. Except for Prognosis: only @ 00Z & 06Z]
 

Advisories

Prognostic Reasonings

** WTPQ20 RJTD 141200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER TS 0101 CIMARON (0101) ANALYSIS PSTN 141200UTC 27.3N 129.1E GOOD MOVE ENE 15KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 200NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 150NM ELSEWHERE = =JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

** WTPQ30 RJTD 140000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 7 FOR STS 0101 CIMARON (0101) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL MOVE STEADY IN WESTERLIES. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 140000 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DECELERATE. STS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TS WITHIN 6 HOURS. STS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTER HAS SEPARATED FROM LOW LEVEL CIRCURATION CENTER AND CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO STAY IN LOW SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS. STS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS.= ** This is the Final Prognostic Reasoning **

Sources: Graphic Map courtesy of NPMOD Kadena, Okinawa, Japan. JMA Advisory brought to you by Unisys Weather Tropical Archives:
             http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/archive and Florida State University (FSU) Meteorology Dept. Server, USA:
             http://www.met.fsu.edu/Data/archive/weather/HURR/

Updated: 3:27 AM Local (07:27 UTC) 05/15/01 = mvpadua