for Monday, 11 May 2015 [8:00 PM PhT]
CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.
CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION
As of 5:00 PM PhT today, May 11 ...0900 GMT.
Classification/Name: TY NOUL (DODONG)
Location: Over the eastern part of the Bashi Channel (near 22.5N 123.9E)
About: 295 km northeast of Basco, Batanes...or 595 km southwest of Okinawa, Japan
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 140 kph near the center...Gustiness: 175 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 50 to 200 mm [Moderate to Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 605 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 140 km east from the center and 130 km west from the center
Past Movement: ENE @ 36 kph
Forecast Movement: East-Northeast to Northeast @ 52 kph
1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TY NOUL (DODONG) is expected to continue to accelerate rapidly east-northeast to northeastward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, Noul will be passing over or very near Ryukyu Islands early Tuesday morning.
NOUL (DODONG) will weaken throughout the forecast period as it moves across an area of unfavorable atmospheric conditions and is likely to transform into an Extratropical Cyclone on Tuesday. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to Tropical Storm strength at 85 kph on Tuesday afternoon.
The following is the 1-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens as it accelerates North-Northeast to Northeastward, exiting the PAR...about 280 km southeast of Kagoshima, Japan [2PM MAY 12: 29.4N 131.9E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Mon May 11, 2015
Location of Center: Near 22.5º N Lat 123.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 225 km S of Ishigaki, Japan
Distance 2: 290 km NNE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 365 km SE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 435 km NNE of Calayan Is., Cagayan
Distance 5: 485 km N of Santa Ana, Cagayan