for Saturday, 11 July 2015 [7:45 AM PhT]
DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.
CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION
As of 5:00 AM PhT today, July 11...2100 GMT.
Classification/Name: TY CHAN-HOM (FALCON)
Location: Just along the coast of Northeastern Zhejiang Province (near 28.3N 123.1E)
About: 235 km southeast of Ningbo, China...or 370 km south-southeast of Shanghai, China
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 160 kph near the center...Gustiness: 195 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and northeast of the center): 100 to 400 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 1,000 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 215 km north and 165 km south from the center
Past Movement: North-Northwest @ 15 kph
Forecast Movement: North-Northwest @ 15 kph
Towards: Coastal Zhejiang-Yellow Sea Area
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK
TY CHAN-HOM (FALCON) is expected to maintain its slow northwesterly track during the next 24 hours...and shall recurve to the north and north-northeast through the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, CHAN-HOM will be passing very close to the shores of Eastern Zhejiang and Southeastern Jiangsu today...and shall pass close to the east of Shanghai by early Sunday morning (Jul 12). By early Monday morning, the weakening typhoon shall be over the Central Yellow Sea.
TY CHAN-HOM (FALCON) will continue on its weakening trend within the next 24 hours...and will continue to lose strength rapidly into a strong Tropical Storm (TS) by 48 hours as the system moves across the not-so-warm Yellow Sea. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 95 kph by Sunday early morning (Jul 12)...decreasing further rapidly to just 65 kph on Monday early morning (Jul 13).
The following is the 2-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Passing very near the coast of Southeastern Jiangsu Province...weakens to a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves northward...about 115 km east of Shanghai, China [2AM JUL 12: 31.1N 122.6E @ 95kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Accelerating slightly north-northeastward across the central part of the Yellow Sea...dissipating and just barely a TS...about 305 km southwest of Seoul, South Korea [2AM JUL 13: 35.8N 124.4E @ 65kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat Jul 11, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 28.3º N Lat 123.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 240 km ENE of Wenzhou, China
Distance 2: 395 km NNE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 3: 435 km NNW of Ishigakijima
Distance 4: 505 km WNW of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 5: 875 km NNE of Basco, Batanes