for Thursday, 20 June 2013 [1:03 PM PhT]
for Thursday, 20 June 2013 [1:03 PM PhT]
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 12:00 noon today, the center of the newly-formed TD 94W (Fabian) was located over the West Philippine Sea...about 220 km west-southwest of Cape Bolinao, Pangasinan or 290 km northwest of Subic Bay...currently moving northeast slowly.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 45 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of 94W (Fabian) is estimated to be heavy (300 mm).
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TD 94W (Fabian) is expected to move north to north-northwest within the next 12 hours...and then turn towards the northwest to west-northwest between 24 to 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of 94W (Fabian) will remain over the West Philippine Sea until Friday morning...and will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Friday noon or afternoon. On Saturday noon, the depression will be just along the coast of Western Guangdong in Southern China...nearing landfall just west of Macau.
94W (Fabian) is forecast to intensify during the next 24 hours...could become a Tropical Storm (TS) later tonight or Friday.
The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:
FRIDAY NOON: Becomes a TS as it moves across the South China Sea, outside of PAR...about 362 km southeast of Hong Kong [12PM JUNE 21: 19.6N 116.3E @ 65kph].
SATURDAY NOON: Reaches its peak winds of 75 km/hr as it approaches the shores of Western Guangdong...about 123 km southwest of Macau [12PM JUNE 22: 21.3N 112.9E @ 75kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - spreading across the West Philippine Sea. Affected Areas: Scarborough Shoal. Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-63 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 300 mm (heavy) along areas to the south and near the center of 94W (Fabian).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 NN PhT Thu June 20, 2013
Class/Name: TD 94W (Fabian)
Location of Center: 15.8º N Lat 117.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 220 km WSW of Cape Bolinao, Pangasinan
Distance 2: 242 km WNW of Iba, Zambales
Distance 3: 268 km W of Dagupan City
Distance 4: 281 km WSW of San Fernando City
