for Wednesday, 21 December 2016 [7:49 PM PhT]

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Issued at:7:30 PM PhT (11:30 GMT) Wednesday 21 December 2016
Next update:Thursday Evening, 22 December 2016
Current Status and Outlook Tropical Depression 30W newly-formed over the Caroline Islands, just to the southeast of Yap State (FSM). This depression is forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by tomorrow evening (Thu, Dec 22)...may pose a threat to Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region on Christmas Day.
Where is 30W? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, December21...0900 GMT. The center was located along the southernmost part of Western Micronesia(near 6.5N 141.8E), about 526 km southeast of Colonia, Yapor 1,719 km east-southeast of Eastern Mindanao, Philippines.
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center...Gustiness: 65 kph
Where is it heading? It was moving West-northwest @ 20 kph, towards Yap-Palau Area.
Forecast Highlights
  • The Global Typhoon Models (GTM) are showing that TD 30W is very likely to become a Tropical Storm (TS) once it enters the PAR by tomorrow evening (Thu, Dec 22).
  • The latest Day 4 Forecast shows the cyclone becoming a Typhoon as it makes landfall over the Bicol Region on Christmas Day (Dec 25). Please be advised that this forecast is at LOW CONFIDENCE, and changes on the forecast track can still happen.
  • Once it enters PAR, TD 30W is likely to be named locally as "Nina" based on PAGASA's name list.
  • This depression is still too far to directly affect any part of the Philippines.
  • This StormWatch will be upgraded to Storm Update once this cyclonestarts to pose a threat to the country.

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines
Notes: T2K/WPF translates all technical data terms into layman's form for public understanding. Do not use this for life/death decision, kindly refer to your country's official warnings/bulletins. This site is intended for additional information purposes only. Local times are based on Philippine / Hong Kong / Shanghai Standard Times. Maximum Sustained Winds are based on 10-minute average. Pressure Estimates by: NRL or RSMC-Tokyo Typhoon Centre (JMA). Max Wave Height by: NPMOC (USA).

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