for Wednesday, 18 March 2015 [6:40 PM PhT]
CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.
CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION
As of 5:00 PM PhT today, Mar 18...0900 GMT.
Classification/Name: LPA...Ex-TD Bavi (Betty)
Location: Over the central part of the Philippine Sea (near 16.0N 131.2E)
About: 790 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes...or 970 km east of Casiguran, Aurora
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 35 kph near the center...Gustiness: 55 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and north of the center): 5 to 30 mm [Slight to Moderate]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 150 km (Midget)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 18 kph
Forecast Movement: West to West-Southwest @ 10 kph
Towards: Central Philippine Sea
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
The Low Pressure Area (LPA) [formerly TD Bavi (Betty)] is expected to move generally west to west-southwest throughout the forecast outlook. On the forecast track, this LPA will be tracking across the Central and Western parts of the Philippine Sea on Thursday through Friday (Mar 19-20).
The LPA will continue to dissipate within the next 12 to 24 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 20 kph on Friday afternoon.
The following is the 2-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to decay over the Central Philippine Sea as it tracks due westward...about 565 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes [2PM MAR 19: 15.7N 129.1E @ 30kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Decaying further into a shallow low pressure area as it turns west-southwestward across the western part of the Philippine Sea...about 210 km north-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes [2PM MAR 20: 15.1N 125.5E @ 20kph].
*Current WPF Forecast Confidence Level: HIGH.
Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wed Mar 18, 2015
Location of Center: Near 16.0º N Lat 131.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 865 km ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 2: 900 km ENE of Metro Naga
Distance 3: 915 km ENE of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 4: 1025 km ENE of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 5: 1025 km ENE of Baler, Aurora