for Sunday, 25 September 2016 [8:00 AM PhT]






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WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON MEGI (HELEN) UPDATE NUMBER 002
Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Sunday 25 September 2016
Next Update: Sunday Afternoon, 25 September 2016

 

Current Status and Outlook

MEGI (HELEN) has rapidly intensified into a Typhoon as it traverses the southern portion of the North Philippine Sea…likely to affect Extreme Northern Luzon in a couple of days.

This typhoon is forecast to slightly decelerate West-Northwestward within the next 24 hours at a speed of 22 km/hr, in the general direction of Batanes-Taiwan Area.  MEGI (HELEN) will continue to gain strength during the next couple of days.

Where is Malakas (Gener)?

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, September 25...2100 GMT.  The cloud-filled eye was located over the southeastern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 19.0N 132.0E), about 1,033 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 1,059 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 130 kph near the center...Gustiness: 155 kph

Where is it heading?

It was moving West-Northwest @ 25 kph, towards the southern part of the North Philippine Sea.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*

*Where Damaging Winds of  >100 km/hr will be expected.

None for the next 24 hours.

 

 

 

Storm Surge Info

None.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Tracking across the mid-southern part of the North Philippine Sea and continues to intensify....about 604 km east of Basco, Batanes [2AM SEP 26: 20.5N 127.8E @ 165kph]. Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Approaching the Southeastern Coast of Taiwan and continue gaining strength…about 227 km northeast of Itbayat, Batanes [2AM SEP 27: 22.4N 123.4E @190kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS) after crossing Southern Taiwan and is over the southern part of Taiwan Strait…about 295 km north-northwest of Basco, Batanes [2AM SEP 28: 23.7N 118.6E @ 105kph].  Confidence Level:  HIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info


- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 950 km (Medium)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 220 km from the center.

Additional Distances


Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun Sep 25, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 19.0º N Lat 132.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 1085 km ESE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 2: 1094 km ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 3: 1098 km ENE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 4: 1263 km ENE of Metro Manila
Distance 5: 1280 km ESE of Kaohsiung, Taiwan

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph


WP StormTrack (for Public): PNG


Notes: T2K/WPF translates all technical data terms into layman's form for public understanding. Do not use this for life/death decision, kindly refer to your country's official warnings/bulletins. This site is intended for additional information purposes only. Local times are based on Philippine / Hong Kong / Shanghai Standard Times. Maximum Sustained Winds are based on 10-minute average. Pressure Estimates by: NRL or RSMC-Tokyo Typhoon Centre (JMA). Max Wave Height by: NPMOC (USA).


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