for Friday, 19 September 2014 [6:30 PM PhT]
CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.
CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION
As of 5:00 PM PhT today...0900 GMT.
Classification/Name: TS Fung-Wong (Mario)
Location: Over the Balintang Channel, just along the northern coast of Ilocos Norte (near 18.9N 120.6E)
About: 50 km northwest of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte...or 80 km north of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 75 kph near the center...Gustiness: 95 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near, west and west-southwest of the center): 50 to 400 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 850 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 20 kph
Forecast Movement: Northwest to North-Northwest @ 12 kph
Towards: Luzon Strait-Taiwan Area
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TS Fung-Wong (Mario) is expected to move northwestward slowly within the next 24 hours...turning to the north and north-northeast through 36 to 48 hours. On the forecast track, TS Fung-Wong (Mario) will be moving over the northwestern part of the Balintang Channel this evening through Saturday morning. By Saturday afternoon, the cyclone will start to recurve as it continues to move slowly, and will gain speed later as it makes landfall over Southern Taiwan by early Sunday morning. It will then cross the Central Taiwan on Sunday afternoon.
TS Fung-Wong (Mario) will slightly gain strength within the next 24 hours...and shall weaken through 48 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 85 kph by Saturday afternoon.
The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary for this system:
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies slightly...as it moves across the western part of the Balintang Channel...about 210 km west-southwest of Basco, Batanes [2PM SEP 20: 20.2N 120.0E @ 85kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Traverses Central Taiwan as it gains speed while weakening...about 85 km southwest of Hualien, Taiwan [2PM SEP 21: 23.6N 120.9E @ 65kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Exits the northern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it moves across the East China Sea...about 135 km east-southeast of Wenzhou, China [2PM SEP 22: 27.4N 121.9E @ 65kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Fri Sep 19, 2014
Location of Center: Near 18.9º N Lat 120.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 105 km WSW of Calayan Is., Cagayan
Distance 2: 130 km WNW of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 145 km N of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur
Distance 4: 230 km SW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 415 km S of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan
T2K/WP StormTrack (for Public): GIF