for Sunday, 27 November 2016 [7:49 AM PhT]






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WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM TOKAGE (MARCE) UPDATE NUMBER 010 **FINAL**
Issued at: 7:30 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Sunday 27 November 2016

 

Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm TOKAGE (MARCE) has weakened slightly as it begins to move on a northerly direction, passing over the Scarborough Shoal in the West Philippine Sea.

This cyclone is expected to move north-northeast at a slightly slower speed of 11 km/hr through the next 24 hours, before turning sharply towards the west-southwest.  It shall then exit western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by tomorrow afternoon or evening (Nov 28).

*Due to this forecast trend, this will be the final update on this storm. WeatherPhilippines will continue to monitor this system if ever a new threat occurs to our country.

Where is Tokage (Marce)?

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, November 27...2100 GMT.  The center was located over the northern part of the West Philippine Sea (near 15.4N 117.4E), about 275 km west-southwest of Cape Bolinao, Pangasinan or 279 km west of Iba, Zambales. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center...Gustiness: 100 kph.

Where is it heading?

It was moving North @ 15 kph, towards the northern part of the West Philippine Sea.

Potential Landfall Area(s)

:: None

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*

 

*Where Damaging Winds of  >100 km/hr will be expected.

:: None

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+

:: None

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Moves slowly north-northeastward across the northern part of the West Philippine Sea, continues to lose strength…about 236 km west-southwest of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [2AM NOV 28: 17.3N 118.2E @ 75kph]. Confidence Level:  LOW.

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Already outside of the PAR as it turns west-southwestward across the South China Sea…just an area of low pressure…about 509 km west-southwest of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [2AM NOV 29: 16.7N 115.7E @ 35kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info


- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 455 km (Small)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Distances


Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun Nov 27, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 15.4º N Lat 117.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 317 km WSW of Dagupan City, Pangasinan
Distance 2: 318 km WNW of Subic Bay, Zambales
Distance 3: 337 km SW of San Fernando City, La Union
Distance 4: 350 km NW of Lubang Island, Occ Mindoro
Distance 5: 400 km WNW of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph


WP StormTracks (for Public): NORMAL MAP | ZOOMED MAP


Notes: T2K/WPF translates all technical data terms into layman's form for public understanding. Do not use this for life/death decision, kindly refer to your country's official warnings/bulletins. This site is intended for additional information purposes only. Local times are based on Philippine / Hong Kong / Shanghai Standard Times. Maximum Sustained Winds are based on 10-minute average. Pressure Estimates by: NRL or RSMC-Tokyo Typhoon Centre (JMA). Max Wave Height by: NPMOC (USA).


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