for Saturday, 01 November 2014 [7:28 AM PhT]






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TROPICAL STORM NURI (PAENG) UPDATE NUMBER 001
Issued at: 7:30 AM PhT (23:30 GMT) Saturday 01 November 2014
Next Update: Saturday Evening, 01 November 2014

The developing Tropical Storm over the Caroline Islands has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) known internationally as "NURI" - a blue-crowned Malaysian parrots...with local name "PAENG." This storm is not expected to directly affect any part of the Philippines.


Sailors, Mariners and Sea Navigators near its path should closely monitor the development of Nuri (Paeng).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.


None...


CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS Nuri (Paeng)
Location: Over the eastern part of the Philippine Sea (near 13.2N 134.2E)
About: 970 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar...or 1,080 km east of Virac, Catanduanes
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center...Gustiness: 110 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and east of the center): 100 to 300 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 760 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 19 kph
Forecast Movement: Northwest @ 15 kph
Towards: North Philippine Sea


2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Nuri (Paeng) is expected to turn northwest within the next 24 hours...veering more to the north through the remainder of the forecast period. On the forecast track, TS Nuri (Paeng) will be moving across the northeastern part of the Philippine Sea through early Monday morning.

TS Nuri (Paeng) will continue to rapidly gain strength throughout the forecast period, as the storm passes over very warm sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) (>28 degrees Celsius). It could become a Typhoon later tonight or early Sunday morning. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 175 kph by early Monday morning.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary for this system:

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a Typhoon as it turns northwest across the eastern part of the Philippine Sea...about 875 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes [2AM NOV 02: 15.4N 132.1E @ 130kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to intensify as it veers northerly across the northeastern part of the Philippine Sea...about 1,020 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2AM NOV 03: 17.7N 131.8E @ 175kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Still intensifying as it recurve towards the north-northeast to northeast across the eastern part of the North Philippine Sea...about 1,200 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes [2AM NOV 04: 20.2N 133.5E @ 195kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat Nov 01, 2014
Location of Center: Near 13.2 N Lat 134.2 E Lon
Distance 1: 1045 km ENE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 2: 1105 km E of Sorsogon City
Distance 3: 1135 km E of Legazpi City
Distance 4: 1190 km ESE of Metro Naga
Distance 5: 1345 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
T2K/WP StormTrack (for Public): GIF


Notes: T2K translates all technical data terms into layman's form for public understanding. Do not use this for life/death decision, kindly refer to your country's official warnings/bulletins. This site is intended for additional information purposes only. Local times are based on Philippine / Hong Kong / Shanghai Standard Times. Maximum Sustained Winds are based on 10-minute average. Pressure Estimates by: NRL or RSMC-Tokyo Typhoon Centre (JMA). Max Wave Height by: NPMOC (USA). Live Naga City weather conditions (if available) taken from T2K`s new DAVIS VANTAGE VUE Digital Weather Station.


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