An increased chance for average rainfall continuing for the Philippines. The
existence of ITCZ, localized spring thunderstorms & warm sea surface temperatures
(SSTs) support normal rainfall across the region. Confidence: HIGH.
[view full report]
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Week Two (2) Forecast: MAY 16-22, 2012
[Wednesday to
Tuesday]
An increased chance for below-average rainfall for the Philippines. The strong
ridge of a Pacific High Pressure Area, dry-phased Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)
support decreased rainfall across the region. Confidence: MODERATE.
[view full report]
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the
above two-week tropical forecast outlook, does not
guarantee 100%
accuracy! Errors & changes particularly the 2nd week forecast can happen within
the designated outlook
week.
:: Confidence Level [chance of happening]: LOW: <30% MODERATE: 30-50% HIGH: >50%
:: This outlook is issued for planners every Wednesday. ::
>> The next outlook will be issued May 16, 2012.
Sources: NOAA Global
Tropical Hazards Assessment & Various Numerical
Computer Models.
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