From: Gary Padgett To: Michael V. Padua Subject: January Tracks Date: Wednesday, July 15, 1998 5:51 PM GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS - JANUARY 1998 SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN (SIO) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E NOTE: The tracking and intensity information for South Indian Ocean Basin tropical cyclones is based upon operational warnings from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U.S. Air Force and Navy on the island of Guam. The MSW are based on a 1-min averaging period, which is used by all U.S. civilian and military weather services for tropical cyclone warnings. ************************************************************************* Storm Name: 13S Cyclone Number: 13-S Basin: SIO Date Time Lat Lon Cen Pres MSW Remarks (GMT) (mb) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 98 JAN 18 0000 17.0 S 38.2 E 35 98 JAN 18 0600 17.7 S 36.5 E 35 98 JAN 18 1200 17.2 S 35.9 E 30 98 JAN 19 0000 18.8 S 35.7 E 35 98 JAN 19 1200 20.3 S 34.9 E 35 98 JAN 20 0000 21.5 S 35.2 E 30 98 JAN 20 1200 22.4 S 35.5 E 35 98 JAN 21 0000 23.4 S 38.0 E 35 98 JAN 21 1200 24.8 S 39.3 E 35 98 JAN 22 0000 25.4 S 41.6 E 35 98 JAN 22 1200 26.6 S 44.1 E 35 98 JAN 23 0000 26.3 S 46.1 E 30 ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* AUSTRALIAN REGION (AUS) - From Longitude 90E Eastward to Longitude 160E NOTE: The tracks presented below are based on operational warnings from the Australian Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Darwin (Northern Territory), Brisbane (Queensland), and Perth (Western Australia). The MSW in the tables below are based on a 10-min averaging period. To convert these to equivalent 1-min average winds, multiply by 1.15. However, the wind speed estimates by JTWC mentioned in the Remarks column, are 1-min average sustained winds. To convert these to equivalent 10-min average winds, multiply by 0.87. JTWC = Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Guam, Marianas Islands ************************************************************************* Storm Name: SID (depression) Cyclone Number: 08-S Basin: AUS Date Time Lat Lon Cen Pres MSW Remarks (GMT) (mb) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 98 JAN 03 0600 14.2 S 137.1 E 1000 25 98 JAN 03 1200 14.0 S 138.2 E 1000 25 98 JAN 03 1800 14.5 S 138.5 E 999 25 98 JAN 04 0000 14.5 S 139.3 E 999 25 98 JAN 04 0600 15.0 S 139.5 E 1000 25 JTWC: 25 kts/15.7S,141.0E 98 JAN 05 0600 16.1 S 140.3 E 25 JTWC Outlook 98 JAN 07 0000 15.9 S 139.8 E 999 30 98 JAN 07 0600 16.0 S 140.0 E 999 30 98 JAN 07 1200 16.2 S 140.4 E 999 30 98 JAN 07 1800 16.5 S 140.5 E 999 30 ************************************************************************* Storm Name: KATRINA Cyclone Number: 11-P Basin: AUS/SWP Date Time Lat Lon Cen Pres MSW Remarks (GMT) (mb) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 97 JAN 01 1800 15.0 S 151.5 E 998 30 97 JAN 02 0000 15.4 S 152.1 E Interpolated position 97 JAN 02 0600 15.9 S 152.7 E " " 97 JAN 02 1200 16.3 S 153.3 E 1000 30 97 JAN 02 1800 16.6 S 153.3 E 1000 30 97 JAN 03 0000 16.9 S 152.3 E 995 40 97 JAN 03 0600 16.7 S 152.1 E 995 40 97 JAN 03 1200 15.9 S 152.2 E 995 40 JTWC: 55 kts (1-min) 97 JAN 03 1800 15.5 S 152.5 E 990 45 Position at 2000 UTC 97 JAN 04 0000 15.3 S 153.3 E 990 45 97 JAN 04 0600 15.3 S 153.5 E 990 45 97 JAN 04 1200 15.6 S 154.1 E 45 Position from JTWC Wrng 97 JAN 04 1800 15.5 S 154.0 E 990 45 97 JAN 05 0000 15.3 S 154.3 E 990 45 97 JAN 05 0600 15.4 S 155.2 E 990 45 97 JAN 05 1200 15.5 S 155.0 E 45 Position from JTWC Wrng 97 JAN 05 1800 15.0 S 155.3 E 990 45 97 JAN 06 0000 14.2 S 157.0 E 40 JTWC Wrng / 1-min MSW 97 JAN 06 0600 14.3 S 157.5 E 990 50 97 JAN 06 1200 13.8 S 158.4 E 40 JTWC Wrng / 1-min MSW 97 JAN 06 1800 13.6 S 158.0 E 980 55 97 JAN 07 0000 12.6 S 159.7 E 980 55 JTWC: 45 kts (1-min) 97 JAN 07 0600 12.5 S 161.0 E 975 60 Entered Fiji's AOR 97 JAN 07 1200 12.5 S 161.9 E 975 60 JTWC: 12.4 S, 160.7 E 97 JAN 07 1800 13.1 S 162.3 E 975 60 97 JAN 08 0000 13.5 S 163.0 E 975 60 97 JAN 08 0600 14.2 S 163.8 E 975 60 97 JAN 08 1200 14.6 S 164.5 E 975 60 97 JAN 08 1800 15.0 S 164.5 E 975 60 97 JAN 09 0000 15.2 S 164.6 E 970 65 97 JAN 09 0600 15.7 S 164.9 E 970 65 97 JAN 09 1200 15.8 S 165.1 E 965 70 97 JAN 09 1800 15.5 S 164.6 E 960 80 97 JAN 10 0000 15.6 S 164.5 E 955 80 97 JAN 10 0600 15.6 S 164.1 E 950 80 97 JAN 10 1200 15.5 S 163.3 E 950 80 97 JAN 10 1800 15.0 S 162.5 E 955 80 97 JAN 11 0000 14.7 S 162.0 E 960 75 97 JAN 11 0600 14.6 S 161.0 E 965 70 97 JAN 11 1200 14.3 S 160.3 E 970 65 97 JAN 11 1800 13.5 S 159.9 E 970 65 Re-entered Brisbane's AOR 97 JAN 12 0000 13.4 S 158.8 E 970 65 JTWC: 13.5 S, 159.7 E 97 JAN 12 0600 13.4 S 159.4 E 970 65 97 JAN 12 1200 12.9 S 158.7 E 970 65 97 JAN 12 1800 12.9 S 158.5 E 970 65 97 JAN 13 0000 13.8 S 157.3 E 970 65 JTWC: 13.3 S, 157.8 E 97 JAN 13 0600 13.9 S 156.2 E 970 65 97 JAN 13 1200 13.8 S 154.9 E 970 65 97 JAN 13 1800 13.7 S 154.0 E 970 65 97 JAN 14 0000 13.5 S 153.4 E 970 65 97 JAN 14 0600 13.6 S 152.4 E 970 65 97 JAN 14 1200 13.5 S 151.4 E 970 65 97 JAN 14 1800 13.5 S 150.7 E 970 65 97 JAN 15 0000 13.6 S 150.2 E 955 80 97 JAN 15 0600 13.7 S 150.0 E 945 85 97 JAN 15 1200 14.0 S 149.7 E 940 90 97 JAN 15 1800 14.4 S 149.6 E 940 90 97 JAN 16 0000 14.9 S 149.5 E 940 90 97 JAN 16 0600 15.3 S 149.1 E 950 85 97 JAN 16 1200 15.7 S 149.0 E 950 80 97 JAN 16 1800 16.0 S 148.9 E 950 80 97 JAN 17 0000 16.2 S 148.9 E 970 65 97 JAN 17 0600 16.4 S 148.6 E 980 55 97 JAN 17 1200 16.5 S 148.5 E 980 55 97 JAN 17 1800 16.3 S 148.4 E 985 50 97 JAN 18 0000 16.6 S 148.4 E 985 50 97 JAN 18 0600 16.4 S 148.4 E 985 50 97 JAN 18 1200 16.5 S 149.5 E 985 50 97 JAN 18 1800 16.5 S 149.7 E 980 55 97 JAN 19 0000 17.1 S 150.1 E 980 55 97 JAN 19 0600 17.5 S 150.8 E 980 55 97 JAN 19 1200 17.8 S 151.5 E 980 55 97 JAN 19 1800 17.8 S 152.1 E 980 55 97 JAN 20 0000 18.4 S 152.6 E 980 55 97 JAN 20 0600 19.5 S 153.1 E 970 65 97 JAN 20 1200 20.1 S 153.9 E 970 65 97 JAN 20 1800 20.7 S 153.7 E 985 50 97 JAN 21 0000 21.0 S 154.0 E 985 50 97 JAN 21 0600 21.3 S 154.5 E Interpolated position 97 JAN 21 1200 21.5 S 155.0 E 990 45 JTWC: 21.1 S, 154.1 E 97 JAN 21 1800 22.0 S 155.0 E 985 50 97 JAN 22 0000 21.9 S 155.5 E 985 50 97 JAN 22 0600 21.8 S 155.8 E 990 45 97 JAN 22 1200 21.8 S 156.0 E 990 45 97 JAN 22 1800 21.6 S 156.0 E 990 45 97 JAN 23 0000 20.5 S 156.2 E 990 45 97 JAN 23 0600 19.7 S 155.2 E 990 40 97 JAN 23 1200 19.0 S 154.9 E 990 40 97 JAN 23 1800 18.5 S 154.6 E 990 40 97 JAN 24 0000 18.2 S 153.8 E 990 40 97 JAN 24 0600 18.2 S 152.9 E 990 40 97 JAN 24 1200 17.9 S 152.5 E 1001 30 97 JAN 24 1800 18.0 S 152.3 E Interpolated position 97 JAN 25 0000 18.0 S 152.2 E 25 97 JAN 25 0600 19.0 S 151.0 E 1002 25 97 JAN 26 1800 18.9 S 151.4 E See note below 97 JAN 27 0600 18.0 S 151.0 E 1002 25 " " " 97 JAN 27 2100 18.6 S 149.1 E " " " 97 JAN 28 0600 19.0 S 149.0 E 1002 25 " " " NOTE: The positions in the table above after 25 Jan were not taken from warnings issued by either Brisbane or JTWC. They were gleaned from JTWC Tropical Weather Outlooks or from satellite classification bulletins. Warnings on Katrina while the cyclone was east of 160E were issued by the Nadi TWCW, Fiji. ************************************************************************* Storm Name: LES Cyclone Number: 14-P Basin: AUS Date Time Lat Lon Cen Pres MSW Remarks (GMT) (mb) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 98 JAN 23 1200 14.5 S 141.5 E 1000 25 98 JAN 23 1800 14.5 S 140.0 E 996 30 98 JAN 24 0000 14.0 S 139.5 E 990 40 JTWC: 35kts/13.5S,138.5E 98 JAN 24 0600 13.9 S 138.4 E 980 55 JTWC: 35 kts 98 JAN 24 1200 14.0 S 137.8 E 980 55 JTWC: 40 kts 98 JAN 24 1800 14.0 S 136.5 E 980 55 JTWC: 45 kts 98 JAN 25 0000 14.3 S 135.5 E 990 50 Moved inland 98 JAN 25 0600 14.6 S 134.9 E 45 JTWC Warning 98 JAN 25 1200 14.4 S 133.9 E 35 " " 98 JAN 25 1800 14.5 S 133.1 E Interpolated Position 98 JAN 26 0000 14.5 S 132.2 E 30 JTWC 12-hr Forecast 98 JAN 27 2100 15.0 S 131.0 E 1001 25 98 JAN 28 1800 14.2 S 129.4 E 997 25 JTWC: 35 kts/Over water 98 JAN 29 0000 14.1 S 128.9 E 997 25 JTWC: 35 kts 98 JAN 29 0600 14.5 S 127.9 E 997 30 JTWC: 35 kts 98 JAN 29 1200 14.1 S 127.1 E 998 40 Center moved inland 98 JAN 29 1800 14.8 S 126.9 E 998 40 98 JAN 30 0000 14.9 S 126.6 E 996 45 JTWC: 35 kts 98 JAN 30 0600 15.5 S 126.0 E 996 40 JTWC: 35kts/16.1S,125.1E 98 JAN 30 1200 16.0 S 124.9 E 996 35 JTWC Position/MSW (1-min) 98 JAN 30 1800 16.1 S 124.3 E 996 35 " " " 98 JAN 31 0000 16.5 S 123.7 E 996 45 98 JAN 31 0600 16.8 S 123.1 E 996 40 98 JAN 31 1200 17.4 S 122.8 E 996 40 98 JAN 31 1800 18.1 S 122.5 E 996 35 JTWC: 40 kts 98 FEB 01 0000 18.9 S 122.5 E 997 30 JTWC: 35 kts ************************************************************************* Storm Name: TIFFANY Cyclone Number: 15-S Basin: AUS Date Time Lat Lon Cen Pres MSW Remarks (GMT) (mb) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 98 JAN 24 0000 16.6 S 123.5 E 1000 30 98 JAN 24 0600 16.8 S 123.5 E 1002 30 98 JAN 24 1200 16.9 S 122.3 E 1001 30 Relocation 98 JAN 24 1800 17.2 S 121.7 E 1000 30 98 JAN 25 0000 17.1 S 121.0 E 999 30 JTWC: 50 kts 98 JAN 25 0600 17.3 S 120.5 E 990 40 98 JAN 25 1200 17.8 S 119.7 E 985 50 98 JAN 25 1800 17.9 S 119.2 E 985 50 98 JAN 26 0000 18.0 S 118.9 E 980 55 98 JAN 26 0600 18.4 S 118.6 E 975 55 JTWC: 75 kts 98 JAN 26 1200 18.5 S 118.2 E 960 75 JTWC: 95 kts 98 JAN 26 1800 18.5 S 117.9 E 950 80 JTWC: 115 kts 98 JAN 27 0000 18.7 S 117.4 E 930 100 JTWC: 120 kts 98 JAN 27 0600 19.0 S 116.7 E 940 100 98 JAN 27 1200 19.2 S 115.9 E 940 100 98 JAN 27 1800 19.2 S 114.9 E 940 100 98 JAN 28 0000 19.2 S 114.0 E 955 90 98 JAN 28 0600 19.4 S 112.9 E 955 90 98 JAN 28 1200 19.5 S 112.0 E 955 90 98 JAN 28 1800 19.5 S 111.1 E 955 90 98 JAN 29 0000 19.5 S 110.3 E 970 75 JTWC: 95 kts 98 JAN 29 0600 19.6 S 109.5 E 980 60 98 JAN 29 1200 19.7 S 109.0 E 990 45 JTWC: 65 kts 98 JAN 29 1800 19.6 S 108.6 E 990 45 98 JAN 30 0000 19.5 S 108.1 E 992 45 98 JAN 30 0600 19.5 S 107.4 E 994 40 98 JAN 30 1200 19.3 S 106.9 E 35 JTWC Warning (1-min MSW) 98 JAN 31 0000 19.4 S 106.2 E 30 " " 98 JAN 31 1200 19.3 S 105.8 E 25 JTWC 12-hr Forecast NOTE: Track based on operational warnings issued by the Perth TCWC. Warnings were issued at 0400, 1000, 1600, and 2200 UTC. Positions above have been interpolated to standard synoptic hours. MSW are 10-min average winds. ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* SOUTHWEST PACIFIC (SWP) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E NOTE: The tracking and intensity information on Southwest Pacific Basin tropical cyclones is taken from real-time operational warnings issued by the Nadi TCWC, Fiji. The MSW are based on a 10-min averaging period. To convert these to equivalent 1-min average winds, multiply by 1.15. However, the wind speed estimates by JTWC or NPMOC, mentioned in the Remarks column, are 1-min average sustained winds. To convert these to equivalent 10-min average winds, multiply by 0.87. (Thanks to Mark Kersemakers for sending me the Ron and Susan tracks already typed.) JTWC = Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Guam, Marianas Islands NPMOC = Naval Pacific Meteorology and Oceanography Center, located at Pearl Harbor, on the island of Oahu, Hawaii ************************************************************************* Storm Name: RON Cyclone Number: 10-P Basin: SWP Date Time Lat Lon Cen Pres MSW Remarks (GMT) (mb) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 98 JAN 01 0600 9.0 S 165.5 W 1000 30 98 JAN 01 1200 8.8 S 166.5 W 1000 30 98 JAN 01 1800 9.0 S 167.5 W 1000 30 98 JAN 02 0000 9.5 S 167.5 W 992 40 98 JAN 02 0600 9.9 S 168.2 W 987 45 98 JAN 02 1200 10.1 S 169.3 W 985 45 NPMOC: 35 kts 98 JAN 02 1800 10.5 S 170.4 W 984 50 98 JAN 03 0000 10.9 S 171.0 W 980 55 NPMOC: 45 kts 98 JAN 03 0600 11.1 S 171.6 W 975 60 98 JAN 03 1200 11.4 S 171.8 W 970 65 NPMOC: 55 kts 98 JAN 03 1800 11.5 S 172.7 W 965 70 98 JAN 04 0000 11.6 S 173.0 W 965 70 98 JAN 04 0600 11.6 S 173.2 W 955 80 98 JAN 04 1200 12.0 S 173.6 W 945 85 NPMOC: 115 kts 98 JAN 04 1800 12.2 S 174.3 W 925 100 98 JAN 05 0000 12.3 S 175.0 W 915 115 98 JAN 05 0600 12.4 S 175.4 W 900 125 98 JAN 05 1200 12.6 S 175.8 W 900 125 NPMOC: 125 kts 98 JAN 05 1800 13.4 S 175.7 W 900 125 98 JAN 06 0000 13.9 S 175.8 W 900 125 NPMOC: 155 kts 98 JAN 06 0600 14.5 S 175.9 W 900 125 98 JAN 06 1200 15.0 S 175.6 W 900 125 NPMOC: 130 kts 98 JAN 06 1800 15.5 S 175.6 W 920 110 98 JAN 07 0000 16.3 S 174.7 W 920 110 NPMOC: 105 kts 98 JAN 07 0600 17.0 S 174.0 W 920 110 98 JAN 07 1200 17.9 S 173.1 W 925 100 NPMOC: 90 kts 98 JAN 07 1800 18.9 S 172.8 W 935 90 98 JAN 08 0000 20.9 S 172.0 W 945 85 NPMOC: 80 kts 98 JAN 08 0600 22.6 S 170.3 W 950 80 98 JAN 08 1200 24.8 S 170.2 W 960 75 98 JAN 08 1800 28.0 S 168.0 W 972 65 System merged/captured by TC Susan by 09/0000 UTC. NOTE: There were several instances where NPMOC's 1-min MSW did not agree too closely with Fiji's 10-min avg sustained winds. However, the peak MSW reported by NPMOC of 155 kts, equivalent to a 10-min avg wind of 135 kts, agrees rather well with the 125 kts reported by Fiji. In fact, the Nadi discussion at 06/0800 UTC mentioned that, based on winds reported from Niuafo'ou, Ron might be an even more compact system with stronger winds near the center than previously thought. Whether or not the peak winds will be raised during post-season analyis remains to be seen. ************************************************************************* Storm Name: SUSAN Cyclone Number: 11-P Basin: SWP Date Time Lat Lon Cen Pres MSW Remarks (GMT) (mb) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 98 JAN 03 0000 12.2 S 173.5 E 997 30 JTWC: 35kts/12.5S,174.4E 98 JAN 03 0600 12.5 S 172.9 E 987 40 98 JAN 03 1200 12.5 S 172.4 E 985 50 98 JAN 03 1800 12.5 S 172.1 E 985 50 98 JAN 04 0000 13.2 S 171.4 E 970 65 98 JAN 04 0600 13.0 S 171.0 E 960 75 98 JAN 04 1200 13.3 S 170.8 E 940 90 JTWC: 115 kts 98 JAN 04 1800 13.7 S 170.6 E 925 100 98 JAN 05 0000 14.0 S 170.3 E 910 120 98 JAN 05 0600 14.4 S 170.1 E 900 125 98 JAN 05 1200 14.8 S 169.9 E 900 125 98 JAN 05 1800 15.2 S 170.1 E 900 125 98 JAN 06 0000 15.5 S 170.1 E 900 125 98 JAN 06 0600 15.9 S 170.4 E 900 125 98 JAN 06 1200 16.4 S 170.9 E 900 125 98 JAN 06 1800 17.2 S 171.8 E 910 120 98 JAN 07 0000 18.2 S 172.8 E 910 120 98 JAN 07 0600 19.0 S 173.5 E 915 115 98 JAN 07 1200 20.0 S 174.9 E 915 115 98 JAN 07 1800 20.9 S 176.1 E 920 110 98 JAN 08 0000 21.7 S 177.6 E 925 100 98 JAN 08 0600 23.0 S 179.8 W 935 90 98 JAN 08 1200 24.8 S 178.2 W 940 90 98 JAN 08 1800 26.4 S 176.4 W 940 90 98 JAN 09 0000 28.3 S 175.1 W 960 75 NPMOC: 55kts/28.9S,175.3W 98 JAN 09 0600 30.5 S 173.0 W 963 70 Extratropical 98 JAN 09 1200 34.0 S 169.0 W 960 75 98 JAN 09 1800 40.0 S 166.0 W 970 NOTE: The maximum sustained 1-min avg wind reported by JTWC was 140 kts. Converting 125 kts (10-min avg) to its equivalent 1-min avg MSW yields 144 kts, so this represents an excellent agreement between the two warning centers' estimation of Susan's peak intensity. ************************************************************************* Storm Name: TUI Cyclone Number: 16-P Basin: SWP Date Time Lat Lon Cen Pres MSW Remarks (GMT) (mb) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 98 JAN 25 0000 10.8 S 174.0 W 20 98 JAN 25 0600 11.8 S 173.5 W 1000 25 98 JAN 25 1200 11.9 S 173.2 W 1000 25 98 JAN 25 1800 12.9 S 172.8 W 999 30 98 JAN 25 2100 13.2 S 172.6 W 995 35 98 JAN 26 0000 13.4 S 172.4 W 990 40 98 JAN 26 0600 14.1 S 172.0 W 990 40 98 JAN 26 1200 14.9 S 171.5 W 990 40 98 JAN 26 1800 15.3 S 171.0 W 987 45 NPMOC: 40 kts 98 JAN 27 0000 14.5 S 172.2 W 995 35 Relocation 98 JAN 27 0600 14.6 S 172.3 W 997 35 NPMOC: 30 kts 98 JAN 27 1200 15.0 S 172.0 W 98 JAN 27 1800 15.3 S 171.6 W 25 NPMOC 12-hr Forecast ************************************************************************* Storm Name: URSULA Cyclone Number: NONE Basin: SWP Date Time Lat Lon Cen Pres MSW Remarks (GMT) (mb) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 98 JAN 29 2100 14.6 S 150.8 W Satellite Bulletin 98 JAN 30 0600 15.5 S 150.5 W 998 30 98 JAN 30 1200 15.7 S 150.3 W 996 30 98 JAN 30 1800 16.0 S 147.5 W 990 40 98 JAN 31 0000 16.5 S 146.0 W 987 45 98 JAN 31 0600 18.0 S 144.0 W 985 50 98 JAN 31 1200 19.5 S 142.5 W 980 55 98 JAN 31 1800 21.0 S 140.5 W 980 55 98 FEB 01 0000 22.5 S 138.5 W 980 55 NOTE: The information above, except for the first entry, is entirely based upon real-time warnings issued by the Nadi TCWC, Fiji. NPMOC did not issue the first warning on Ursula until 0600 UTC, 1 Feb. ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* *************************************************************************