GARY PADGETT'S GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS - SEPTEMBER 2003 !!!! IMPORTANT -- PLEASE SEE NOTE AT END OF FILE !!!! ************************************************************************* ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico Sources of Information ---------------------- The track coordinates, central pressure and 1-minute average maximum sustained wind values were obtained from the operational forecast/advisories issued by the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center located in Miami, Florida. A 1-minute averaging period is the standard used by all U. S. civilian and military warning services for tropical cyclone warnings. Systems Tracked --------------- Tropical Storm HENRI (12) 03 - 13 Sep Hurricane ISABEL (13) 06 - 22 Sep Tropical Depression (14) 08 - 10 Sep Hurricane JUAN (15) 25 - 30 Sep Hurricane KATE (16) 25 Sep - 09 Oct ************************************************************************* Storm Name: HENRI Cyclone Number: 12 Basin: ATL Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 03 SEP 03 1800 27.5 N 87.5 W 1013 25 03 SEP 04 0000 27.5 N 87.5 W 1011 25 03 SEP 04 0600 27.7 N 87.6 W 1009 25 03 SEP 04 1200 27.8 N 87.4 W 1010 30 03 SEP 04 1800 27.8 N 86.3 W 1002 30 03 SEP 05 0000 27.7 N 85.8 W 1004 30 03 SEP 05 0600 27.7 N 85.0 W 1000 30 03 SEP 05 1200 28.1 N 84.3 W 997 40 03 SEP 05 1800 28.3 N 84.2 W 999 40 03 SEP 06 0000 27.9 N 84.0 W 1003 45 03 SEP 06 0600 27.7 N 83.5 W 1005 35 03 SEP 06 1200 28.4 N 81.8 W 1007 25 Inland over Florida 03 SEP 06 1800 29.1 N 80.4 W 1007 30 03 SEP 07 0000 29.9 N 79.5 W 1006 30 Back over water 03 SEP 07 0600 30.5 N 79.3 W 1008 30 03 SEP 07 1200 30.9 N 78.4 W 1006 30 03 SEP 07 1800 31.3 N 77.9 W 1006 30 03 SEP 08 0000 31.7 N 77.1 W 1006 30 03 SEP 08 0600 32.3 N 76.2 W 1007 30 03 SEP 08 1200 32.5 N 75.9 W 1006 30 03 SEP 08 1800 32.9 N 75.3 W 1006 25 Final TPC advisory 03 SEP 09 0000 33.0 N 75.0 W 1005 35 Extratropical 03 SEP 09 0600 33.0 N 75.0 W 1007 35 03 SEP 09 1200 34.0 N 75.0 W 1006 35 03 SEP 09 1800 34.0 N 74.0 W 1008 35 03 SEP 10 0000 33.0 N 74.0 W 1009 35 03 SEP 10 0600 33.0 N 75.0 W 1008 35 03 SEP 10 1200 33.0 N 73.0 W 1008 35 03 SEP 10 1800 33.0 N 73.0 W 1009 35 03 SEP 11 0000 33.0 N 73.0 W 1009 35 03 SEP 11 0600 33.0 N 73.0 W 1009 35 03 SEP 11 1200 32.0 N 74.0 W 1009 35 03 SEP 11 1800 33.0 N 74.0 W 1009 35 03 SEP 12 0000 32.0 N 75.0 W 1008 35 03 SEP 12 0600 32.0 N 76.0 W 1009 30 03 SEP 12 1200 32.0 N 76.0 W 1008 30 03 SEP 12 1800 34.0 N 75.0 W 1009 30 03 SEP 13 0000 35.0 N 76.0 W 1009 30 03 SEP 13 0600 37.0 N 76.0 W 1012 30 03 SEP 13 1200 37.0 N 77.0 W 1013 25 Center inland Note: The coordinates and MSW for the extratropical portion of Henri's track were taken from OPC's High Seas Forecasts. ************************************************************************* Storm Name: ISABEL Cyclone Number: 13 Basin: ATL Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 03 SEP 06 0600 14.0 N 32.7 W 1005 35 03 SEP 06 1200 13.6 N 34.0 W 1005 35 03 SEP 06 1800 13.4 N 34.9 W 1000 45 03 SEP 07 0000 13.4 N 35.6 W 997 50 03 SEP 07 0600 13.6 N 36.6 W 994 55 03 SEP 07 1200 14.3 N 37.3 W 987 65 03 SEP 07 1800 14.9 N 38.5 W 984 70 03 SEP 08 0000 15.8 N 39.6 W 979 80 03 SEP 08 0600 16.6 N 40.8 W 970 90 03 SEP 08 1200 17.0 N 42.0 W 962 100 03 SEP 08 1800 17.6 N 43.1 W 952 110 03 SEP 09 0000 18.2 N 44.0 W 948 115 03 SEP 09 0600 18.9 N 45.2 W 948 115 03 SEP 09 1200 19.4 N 46.3 W 948 115 03 SEP 09 1800 20.0 N 47.3 W 948 115 03 SEP 10 0000 20.6 N 48.3 W 948 115 03 SEP 10 0600 20.9 N 49.6 W 948 115 03 SEP 10 1200 21.2 N 50.4 W 948 115 03 SEP 10 1800 21.2 N 51.4 W 942 120 03 SEP 11 0000 21.1 N 52.3 W 935 125 03 SEP 11 0600 21.2 N 53.2 W 936 125 03 SEP 11 1200 21.3 N 54.0 W 930 130 03 SEP 11 1800 21.5 N 54.9 W 921 140 03 SEP 12 0000 21.6 N 55.7 W 924 140 03 SEP 12 0600 21.7 N 56.6 W 921 140 03 SEP 12 1200 21.6 N 57.4 W 924 140 03 SEP 12 1800 21.7 N 58.2 W 920 140 03 SEP 13 0000 21.8 N 59.1 W 923 140 03 SEP 13 0600 21.9 N 60.0 W 935 130 03 SEP 13 1200 22.1 N 61.0 W 935 130 03 SEP 13 1800 22.4 N 62.1 W 932 140 03 SEP 14 0000 22.9 N 63.2 W 932 140 03 SEP 14 0600 23.1 N 64.6 W 938 140 03 SEP 14 1200 23.5 N 65.8 W 939 135 03 SEP 14 1800 23.9 N 67.0 W 933 135 03 SEP 15 0000 24.3 N 67.9 W 933 135 03 SEP 15 0600 24.6 N 68.7 W 940 130 03 SEP 15 1200 25.0 N 69.1 W 945 120 03 SEP 15 1800 25.3 N 69.8 W 949 110 03 SEP 16 0000 25.8 N 70.0 W 949 105 03 SEP 16 0600 26.3 N 70.5 W 956 100 03 SEP 16 1200 27.0 N 71.0 W 959 90 03 SEP 16 1800 27.4 N 71.2 W 959 90 03 SEP 17 0000 28.1 N 71.5 W 957 90 03 SEP 17 0600 29.0 N 72.0 W 958 95 03 SEP 17 1200 29.6 N 72.4 W 957 95 03 SEP 17 1800 30.6 N 73.0 W 955 90 03 SEP 18 0000 31.5 N 73.5 W 956 90 03 SEP 18 0600 32.5 N 74.3 W 957 90 03 SEP 18 1200 33.7 N 75.2 W 956 85 03 SEP 18 1800 35.2 N 76.4 W 960 85 Making landfall in NC 03 SEP 19 0000 36.7 N 77.6 W 972 65 Inland 03 SEP 19 0600 38.3 N 78.4 W 987 50 03 SEP 19 1200 40.9 N 80.4 W 997 35 03 SEP 19 1800 43.8 N 80.8 W 1000 See Note 03 SEP 20 0000 47.6 N 80.7 W 999 03 SEP 20 0600 52.0 N 81.6 W 994 03 SEP 20 1200 55.2 N 79.6 W 992 03 SEP 20 1800 60.4 N 78.0 W 988 03 SEP 21 0000 62.8 N 78.0 W 986 03 SEP 21 0600 64.0 N 80.0 W 985 03 SEP 21 1200 65.2 N 82.0 W 987 03 SEP 21 1800 63.8 N 85.2 W 988 03 SEP 22 0000 63.8 N 85.0 W 992 03 SEP 22 0600 63.8 N 82.5 W 996 03 SEP 22 1200 65.0 N 79.0 W 1000 03 SEP 22 1800 65.4 N 76.0 W 1004 Note: The track and pressure data from 19/1800 UTC onward was supplied by Chris Fogarty of the Canadian Hurricane Centre. TPC/NHC downgraded Isabel to a 30-kt depression in their final advisory at 19/1500 UTC with the center located over Lake Erie. However, at least two stations on the north shore of Lake Erie (Port Colborne and Long Point) recorded sustained winds exceeding gale force, so it appears Isabel was still a tropical storm when it made its "final landfall" in Ontario. The 19/1800 UTC position is well inland, so likely by that time the winds had dropped below gale force. (A special thanks to Chris for compiling the track for Isabel's post-tropical stage.) ************************************************************************* Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: 14 Basin: ATL Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 03 SEP 08 1200 11.8 N 22.0 W 1007 30 03 SEP 08 1800 11.9 N 22.6 W 1007 30 03 SEP 09 0000 11.2 N 23.0 W 1008 25 03 SEP 09 0600 11.3 N 23.4 W 1007 25 03 SEP 09 1200 13.0 N 24.4 W 1007 30 03 SEP 09 1800 13.6 N 25.3 W 1007 30 03 SEP 10 0000 14.6 N 25.0 W 1009 25 03 SEP 10 0600 15.5 N 25.1 W 1009 25 03 SEP 10 1200 15.9 N 25.2 W 1010 25 03 SEP 10 1800 16.9 N 25.4 W 1008 25 ************************************************************************* Storm Name: JUAN Cyclone Number: 15 Basin: ATL Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 03 SEP 25 0000 28.0 N 62.0 W 1010 20 See Note 1 03 SEP 25 0600 29.0 N 62.0 W 1011 20 03 SEP 25 1200 29.2 N 61.4 W 1006 30 First TPC advisory 03 SEP 25 1800 30.5 N 61.6 W 996 45 03 SEP 26 0000 30.9 N 61.8 W 992 50 03 SEP 26 0600 31.1 N 61.8 W 990 50 03 SEP 26 1200 31.8 N 62.0 W 987 55 03 SEP 26 1800 32.6 N 62.1 W 987 65 03 SEP 27 0000 33.3 N 61.9 W 984 70 03 SEP 27 0600 34.4 N 62.1 W 981 75 03 SEP 27 1200 35.2 N 62.8 W 979 75 03 SEP 27 1800 35.5 N 63.3 W 970 90 03 SEP 28 0000 36.3 N 63.6 W 970 90 03 SEP 28 0600 37.1 N 64.0 W 970 90 03 SEP 28 1200 38.5 N 64.1 W 973 85 03 SEP 28 1800 40.2 N 64.1 W 973 85 03 SEP 29 0000 43.1 N 63.9 W 970 85 See Note 2 03 SEP 29 0600 46.2 N 63.7 W 987 60 Inland/Final advisory 03 SEP 29 1200 50.0 N 63.0 W 996 50 Extratropical 03 SEP 29 1800 54.0 N 60.0 W 1000 40 03 SEP 30 0000 56.0 N 60.0 W 1004 40 03 SEP 30 0600 62.0 N 55.0 W 1005 30 Note 1: The tracking and intensity information for the first two points and the final four were taken from OPC's High Seas Forecasts. Note 2: The TPC/NHC values for CP and MSW at 29/0000 UTC (just before landfall) were 974 mb and 70 kts. However, McNab's Island in Halifax Harbour recorded a sustained wind of 82 kts around the time of landfall (elev. 17 m), so likely the MSW at landfall was in the 80-85 kt range. Also, based on pressure observations from stations in the area, Juan's CP at landfall was likely around 970 mb. This information was supplied by Chris Fogarty, and I have entered these values in the table above. ************************************************************************* Storm Name: KATE Cyclone Number: 16 Basin: ATL Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 03 SEP 25 1800 11.5 N 37.7 W 1008 30 03 SEP 26 0000 12.3 N 38.7 W 1008 30 03 SEP 26 0600 12.7 N 39.6 W 1008 30 03 SEP 26 1200 15.4 N 40.3 W 1007 30 03 SEP 26 1800 16.6 N 41.0 W 1007 30 03 SEP 27 0000 18.0 N 41.8 W 1007 30 03 SEP 27 0600 19.2 N 42.9 W 1007 30 03 SEP 27 1200 19.8 N 43.7 W 1007 30 03 SEP 27 1800 21.0 N 44.2 W 1005 35 03 SEP 28 0000 22.0 N 44.6 W 1000 45 03 SEP 28 0600 23.0 N 44.5 W 997 50 03 SEP 28 1200 23.9 N 43.5 W 997 50 03 SEP 28 1800 24.8 N 42.9 W 997 50 03 SEP 29 0000 26.1 N 41.3 W 997 50 03 SEP 29 0600 27.2 N 40.1 W 994 55 03 SEP 29 1200 28.3 N 38.2 W 991 60 03 SEP 29 1800 29.2 N 36.8 W 991 60 03 SEP 30 0000 30.0 N 35.4 W 987 65 03 SEP 30 0600 30.8 N 34.8 W 992 55 03 SEP 30 1200 31.8 N 35.2 W 992 55 03 SEP 30 1800 32.6 N 36.0 W 996 50 03 OCT 01 0000 32.5 N 37.1 W 997 50 03 OCT 01 0600 32.5 N 38.3 W 997 50 03 OCT 01 1200 32.3 N 39.6 W 991 60 03 OCT 01 1800 31.7 N 40.9 W 987 65 03 OCT 02 0000 31.1 N 42.1 W 987 65 03 OCT 02 0600 30.3 N 43.0 W 979 75 03 OCT 02 1200 30.1 N 43.6 W 979 75 03 OCT 02 1800 29.9 N 44.7 W 976 80 03 OCT 03 0000 29.6 N 45.8 W 976 80 03 OCT 03 0600 29.4 N 47.2 W 970 90 03 OCT 03 1200 29.4 N 47.8 W 966 95 03 OCT 03 1800 29.6 N 49.1 W 962 100 03 OCT 04 0000 29.8 N 50.2 W 962 100 03 OCT 04 0600 30.1 N 51.6 W 962 100 03 OCT 04 1200 30.1 N 52.8 W 962 100 03 OCT 04 1800 30.2 N 54.0 W 952 110 03 OCT 05 0000 30.3 N 54.7 W 962 100 03 OCT 05 0600 30.4 N 55.5 W 968 95 03 OCT 05 1200 30.7 N 56.1 W 973 85 03 OCT 05 1800 31.4 N 56.5 W 976 80 03 OCT 06 0000 32.3 N 56.2 W 977 80 03 OCT 06 0600 33.5 N 56.0 W 976 80 03 OCT 06 1200 35.2 N 55.6 W 979 75 03 OCT 06 1800 37.0 N 55.0 W 983 70 03 OCT 07 0000 38.6 N 54.0 W 987 65 03 OCT 07 0600 40.5 N 52.1 W 987 60 03 OCT 07 1200 43.8 N 49.5 W 987 60 03 OCT 07 1800 47.5 N 47.2 W 980 60 Final TPC Advisory 03 OCT 08 0000 53.0 N 44.0 W 978 70 Extratropical 03 OCT 08 0600 57.0 N 41.0 W 974 65 03 OCT 08 1200 60.0 N 37.0 W 974 65 03 OCT 08 1800 61.0 N 34.0 W 970 65 03 OCT 09 0000 62.0 N 30.0 W 970 60 Note: The tracking and intensity information following the final TPC/NHC advisory was obtained from OPC's High Seas Forecasts. ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180 Sources of Information ---------------------- The track coordinates, central pressure and 1-minute average maximum sustained wind values were obtained from the operational forecast/advisories issued by the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, for locations east of longitude 140W, and from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii, for locations west of longitude 140W. A 1-minute averaging period is the standard used by all U. S. civilian and military warning services for tropical cyclone warnings. Systems Tracked --------------- Tropical Storm KEVIN (11E) 03 - 06 Sep Hurricane LINDA (12E) 14 - 17 Sep Hurricane MARTY (13E) 19 - 25 Sep ************************************************************************* Storm Name: KEVIN Cyclone Number: 11E Basin: NEP Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 03 SEP 03 1200 19.0 N 111.5 W 1001 30 03 SEP 03 1800 19.2 N 112.1 W 1001 30 03 SEP 04 0000 19.5 N 112.5 W 1001 30 03 SEP 04 0600 19.8 N 113.0 W 1001 30 03 SEP 04 1200 21.0 N 114.0 W 1001 30 03 SEP 04 1800 20.8 N 114.6 W 1000 35 03 SEP 05 0000 21.8 N 115.3 W 1004 30 03 SEP 05 0600 22.3 N 116.0 W 1004 30 03 SEP 05 1200 23.0 N 117.1 W 1004 30 03 SEP 05 1800 23.1 N 117.9 W 1005 25 03 SEP 06 0000 23.6 N 118.5 W 1010 25 ************************************************************************* Storm Name: LINDA Cyclone Number: 12E Basin: NEP Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 03 SEP 14 0600 16.1 N 108.6 W 1007 30 03 SEP 14 1200 16.2 N 109.4 W 1004 35 03 SEP 14 1800 17.1 N 110.4 W 1001 40 03 SEP 15 0000 17.6 N 110.7 W 1000 45 03 SEP 15 0600 18.3 N 111.6 W 994 55 03 SEP 15 1200 19.1 N 112.4 W 990 60 03 SEP 15 1800 19.8 N 113.2 W 987 65 03 SEP 16 0000 20.3 N 114.0 W 987 65 03 SEP 16 0600 20.4 N 114.7 W 994 55 03 SEP 16 1200 20.5 N 114.9 W 1000 45 03 SEP 16 1800 20.7 N 115.8 W 1002 40 03 SEP 17 0000 20.6 N 116.4 W 1004 35 03 SEP 17 0600 20.6 N 116.5 W 1005 30 03 SEP 17 1200 20.4 N 116.8 W 1007 30 03 SEP 17 1800 20.3 N 116.9 W 1007 25 ************************************************************************* Storm Name: MARTY Cyclone Number: 13E Basin: NEP Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 03 SEP 19 0000 16.9 N 106.4 W 1002 30 03 SEP 19 0600 17.1 N 107.3 W 1000 35 03 SEP 19 1200 17.3 N 107.3 W 998 40 03 SEP 19 1800 17.0 N 107.5 W 998 40 03 SEP 20 0000 17.5 N 107.5 W 998 45 03 SEP 20 0600 17.7 N 107.7 W 998 45 03 SEP 20 1200 17.9 N 107.8 W 998 50 03 SEP 20 1800 18.3 N 108.4 W 990 60 03 SEP 21 0000 18.6 N 108.6 W 987 60 03 SEP 21 0600 18.8 N 108.7 W 984 65 03 SEP 21 1200 19.2 N 109.0 W 984 70 03 SEP 21 1800 20.2 N 109.3 W 984 70 03 SEP 22 0000 21.0 N 109.6 W 981 70 03 SEP 22 0600 22.0 N 109.6 W 973 75 03 SEP 22 1200 23.7 N 109.9 W 976 85 Near tip of Baja Cal. 03 SEP 22 1800 25.5 N 110.4 W 984 70 Over Gulf of California 03 SEP 23 0000 27.1 N 112.1 W 990 65 On east coast of Baja 03 SEP 23 0600 28.4 N 112.6 W 995 55 Over Gulf of California 03 SEP 23 1200 29.4 N 113.2 W 1000 40 03 SEP 23 1800 30.0 N 113.6 W 1002 35 03 SEP 24 0000 30.6 N 113.8 W 1003 30 03 SEP 24 0600 30.7 N 113.6 W 1004 30 03 SEP 24 1200 31.1 N 113.3 W 1007 25 03 SEP 24 1500 31.2 N 113.2 W 1007 25 Final TPC advisory 03 SEP 24 2100 31.6 N 113.3 W 1007 20 Inland/HPC summaries 03 SEP 25 0200 31.6 N 114.1 W 1007 17 ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180 Sources of Information ---------------------- The track coordinates and 1-minute average maximum sustained wind values in general were taken from operational warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. The central pressure and 10-minute average maximum sustained wind estimates for most systems were obtained from warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA), which is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Specialised Meteor- ological Centre for the basin. In a few instances, information from warnings issued by other Asian warning centers may have been utilized. The center position coordinates from JMA and other centers were com- pared with those from JTWC and annotations made in the Remarks column when the differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm or more. Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the Typhoon 2000 website, sends me cyclone tracks based upon warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency and the Philippines' Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). Also, Huang Chunliang of Fuzhou City, China, sends me each month tracks obtained from warnings issued by the National Meteorological Center of China (NMCC), the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan (CWBT) and the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO). A very special thanks to Michael and Chunliang for the assistance they so reliably provide. A special thanks also to Kevin Boyle for performing a lot of the track compilation work. Systems Tracked --------------- Tropical Depression 02 - 03 Sep Super Typhoon MAEMI (15W / 0314 / POGI) 03 - 15 Sep Tropical Depression (QUIEL) 15 - 19 Sep Typhoon CHOI-WAN (16W / 0315 / ROSKAS) 17 - 24 Sep Typhoon KOPPU (17W / 0316 / SIKAT) 24 Sep - 02 Oct ************************************************************************* Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: None Basin: NWP PAGASA Internal Name: None JMA Tropical Storm Number: None Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 03 SEP 02 1200 20.8 N 151.3 E 1008 30 03 SEP 02 1800 22.2 N 151.2 E 1008 30 03 SEP 03 0000 22.4 N 151.7 E 1008 30 03 SEP 03 0600 23.6 N 151.0 E 1008 30 03 SEP 03 1200 24.0 N 150.0 E 1010 25 03 SEP 03 1800 25.0 N 150.0 E 1010 25 Note: JMA was the only warning agency which classified this system as a tropical depression. ************************************************************************* Storm Name: MAEMI Cyclone Number: 15W Basin: NWP PAGASA Internal Name: POGI JMA Tropical Storm Number: 0314 Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 03 SEP 03 0600 8.5 N 155.3 E 1006 30 JMA bulletins 03 SEP 03 1200 10.6 N 154.8 E 1008 30 03 SEP 03 1800 11.0 N 152.2 E 1006 30 03 SEP 04 0000 11.0 N 151.0 E 1008 25 03 SEP 04 0600 11.0 N 151.0 E 1006 25 03 SEP 04 1200 11.0 N 150.3 E 1006 30 03 SEP 04 1800 11.0 N 149.0 E 1002 30 03 SEP 05 0000 11.6 N 147.8 E 1002 30 03 SEP 05 0600 12.1 N 146.0 E 1004 30 03 SEP 05 1200 13.7 N 145.9 E 1004 30 03 SEP 05 1800 13.9 N 143.7 E 1004 30 30 JMA: 13.9 N, 144.5 E 03 SEP 06 0000 14.7 N 141.9 E 1000 40 30 03 SEP 06 0600 15.0 N 141.0 E 996 40 35 JMA: 16.0 N, 141.5 E 03 SEP 06 1200 15.7 N 140.4 E 996 45 35 JMA: 16.2 N, 139.8 E 03 SEP 06 1800 16.6 N 139.0 E 992 50 40 03 SEP 07 0000 17.2 N 137.8 E 992 60 40 03 SEP 07 0600 18.2 N 136.8 E 992 60 40 JMA: 18.8 N, 136.9 E 03 SEP 07 1200 18.6 N 136.0 E 990 65 45 JMA: 19.1 N, 135.9 E 03 SEP 07 1800 19.3 N 135.0 E 985 65 50 03 SEP 08 0000 19.8 N 134.1 E 980 70 55 03 SEP 08 0600 20.2 N 132.7 E 975 70 60 03 SEP 08 1200 20.5 N 131.8 E 975 75 60 03 SEP 08 1800 21.0 N 130.9 E 975 75 60 03 SEP 09 0000 21.8 N 130.5 E 960 90 70 03 SEP 09 0600 22.4 N 129.4 E 950 115 80 03 SEP 09 1200 22.9 N 128.8 E 940 130 85 03 SEP 09 1800 23.4 N 127.8 E 930 130 90 03 SEP 10 0000 23.6 N 127.3 E 925 150 95 03 SEP 10 0600 23.9 N 126.8 E 915 150 100 03 SEP 10 1200 24.3 N 126.1 E 915 150 105 Approaching Miyako Is. 03 SEP 10 1800 24.8 N 125.5 E 910 135 105 Over Miyako Island 03 SEP 11 0000 25.3 N 125.2 E 910 130 105 03 SEP 11 0600 25.7 N 125.2 E 915 135 105 03 SEP 11 1200 26.8 N 125.4 E 930 135 95 03 SEP 11 1800 28.4 N 125.8 E 940 120 85 03 SEP 12 0000 30.6 N 126.6 E 945 120 80 Approaching Korea 03 SEP 12 0600 32.7 N 127.0 E 945 105 80 Near Cheju Island 03 SEP 12 1200 34.8 N 128.3 E 950 90 75 Over Pusan, S. Korea 03 SEP 12 1800 36.9 N 129.7 E 970 80 60 Crossing South Korea 03 SEP 13 0000 38.7 N 131.6 E 975 75 55 03 SEP 13 0600 40.5 N 134.8 E 980 60 50 03 SEP 13 1200 42.3 N 138.1 E 980 50 JMA bulletins 03 SEP 13 1800 44.7 N 141.2 E 980 50 03 SEP 14 0000 45.0 N 146.0 E 984 50 Extratropical 03 SEP 14 0600 46.0 N 148.0 E 988 50 03 SEP 14 1200 47.0 N 149.0 E 988 50 03 SEP 14 1800 48.0 N 150.0 E 986 50 03 SEP 15 0000 50.0 N 149.0 E 988 45 Note 1: JMA declared Maemi extratropical and issued their final tropical warning on the storm at 13/2100 UTC. Note 2: The 10-min avg MSW estimates from the Asian TC warning agencies are given in the following table: Date Time Estimated 10-min avg MSW in kts (GMT) NMCC PAGASA ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 03 SEP 06 0600 35 03 SEP 06 1200 35 03 SEP 06 1800 40 03 SEP 07 0000 40 03 SEP 07 0600 40 03 SEP 07 1200 45 45 03 SEP 07 1800 50 50 03 SEP 08 0000 50 55 03 SEP 08 0600 55 55 03 SEP 08 1200 55 55 03 SEP 08 1800 55 55 03 SEP 09 0000 70 65 03 SEP 09 0600 90 70 03 SEP 09 1200 90 70 03 SEP 09 1800 90 80 03 SEP 10 0000 100 90 03 SEP 10 0600 120 100 03 SEP 10 1200 120 100 03 SEP 10 1800 120 03 SEP 11 0000 120 03 SEP 11 0600 110 03 SEP 11 1200 110 03 SEP 11 1800 110 03 SEP 12 0000 100 03 SEP 12 0600 90 03 SEP 12 1200 80 03 SEP 12 1800 60 03 SEP 13 0000 50 Note: NMCC initially upgraded Maemi to typhoon status at 08/2100 UTC. CWB did not issue any local warnings on Maemi, but estimated the peak intensity at 100 kts (10-min avg). ************************************************************************* Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: None Basin: NWP PAGASA Internal Name: QUIEL JMA Tropical Storm Number: None Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 03 SEP 15 1200 12.5 N 133.4 E 1000 30 PAGASA bulletins 03 SEP 15 1800 12.8 N 133.3 E 1000 30 03 SEP 16 0000 13.3 N 132.8 E 1000 30 03 SEP 16 0600 13.7 N 130.6 E 1000 30 03 SEP 16 1200 14.3 N 129.4 E 1000 30 JMA: 14.8 N, 128.4 E 03 SEP 16 1800 15.5 N 128.3 E 1000 30 03 SEP 17 0000 15.8 N 127.7 E 1000 30 03 SEP 17 0600 16.6 N 126.6 E 1000 30 03 SEP 17 1200 17.2 N 125.5 E 1000 30 CWB: 16.0 N, 125.0 E 03 SEP 17 1800 17.1 N 121.6 E 1000 25 Major relocation 03 SEP 18 0000 17.4 N 120.8 E 1000 25 NMCC: 17.0 N, 124.3 E 03 SEP 18 0600 17.0 N 120.0 E 1004 25 NMCC: 17.0 N, 123.3 E 03 SEP 18 1200 17.2 N 119.0 E 1004 25 NMCC: 16.8 N, 122.2 E 03 SEP 18 1800 17.6 N 118.3 E 1004 25 03 SEP 19 0000 18.3 N 117.3 E 20 NMCC: 16.8 N, 121.6 E Note: There was sort of a tropical monsoon "mess" during the days of mid-September in the Western Pacific. There were multiple circulations in the monsoon trough and the various Asian warning agencies had their own ideas about which one was predominant. JMA was following the same system as PAGASA (Quiel) through 17/0000 UTC, and the center coordinates agree very well except for one annotated above. At 17/0600 UTC JMA began following another system to the north-northeast (which subse- quently became Typhoon Choi-wan). At 17/1800 PAGASA also began issuing bulletins on the new circulation, dubbing it Tropical Depression Roskas, while at the same time continuing bulletins on Tropical Depression Quiel, but for a circulation then located over northwestern Luzon. This system subsequently drifted westward into the South China Sea and had weakened by 19 September. JTWC did not issue any warnings on Quiel, but of course did initiate warnings on the developing depression which became Choi-wan. (The first two days of Choi-wan's track in this document is based upon JMA's bulletins for the above system.) NMCC and CWB of Taiwan did not issue formal warnings on the system, but did issue alerts. NMCC's track agrees rather well with PAGASA's through 17/1200 UTC, but following PAGASA's big relocation at 1800 UTC (there was no NMCC position available at that hour), NMCC's coordinates are significantly to the east of PAGASA's. CWB's track, beginning at 16/0600 UTC, agrees rather well with PAGASA's until the "big jump" at 17/1800 UTC, when, like NMCC, CWB began to report positions well to the east of PAGASA's. CWB downgraded the system to a low-pressure area after 18/0600 UTC and kept the system stationary over northern Luzon until it dissipated on the 19th. ************************************************************************* Storm Name: CHOI-WAN Cyclone Number: 16W Basin: NWP PAGASA Internal Name: ROSKAS JMA Tropical Storm Number: 0315 Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 03 SEP 15 1200 12.1 N 134.0 E 1004 30 JMA bulletins 03 SEP 15 1800 12.8 N 133.6 E 1002 30 03 SEP 16 0000 13.1 N 133.0 E 1004 30 03 SEP 16 0600 13.8 N 130.0 E 1004 30 03 SEP 16 1200 14.8 N 128.4 E 1004 30 03 SEP 16 1800 15.4 N 128.1 E 1000 30 03 SEP 17 0000 15.8 N 128.0 E 1000 30 03 SEP 17 0600 17.5 N 128.9 E 1000 30 See Note 1 03 SEP 17 1200 19.2 N 130.2 E 1000 30 03 SEP 17 1800 20.6 N 129.4 E 1000 25 30 Begin JTWC warnings 03 SEP 18 0000 21.3 N 128.3 E 994 30 40 03 SEP 18 0600 21.4 N 127.1 E 990 30 45 JMA: 22.2 N, 128.7 E 03 SEP 18 1200 22.5 N 126.9 E 990 30 45 JMA: 22.8 N, 127.7 E 03 SEP 18 1800 23.6 N 127.4 E 990 45 45 03 SEP 19 0000 25.0 N 128.0 E 985 55 50 03 SEP 19 0600 26.0 N 127.9 E 985 55 50 Over Okinawa 03 SEP 19 1200 27.1 N 128.2 E 980 65 60 " 03 SEP 19 1800 27.9 N 128.9 E 975 65 60 03 SEP 20 0000 28.5 N 129.7 E 970 65 65 03 SEP 20 0600 28.9 N 130.5 E 970 70 65 03 SEP 20 1200 29.1 N 131.8 E 970 70 65 03 SEP 20 1800 29.2 N 133.3 E 970 75 65 03 SEP 21 0000 29.9 N 135.8 E 965 85 70 03 SEP 21 0600 31.1 N 137.0 E 965 95 70 03 SEP 21 1200 31.9 N 138.8 E 965 95 70 03 SEP 21 1800 33.2 N 140.7 E 960 90 70 03 SEP 22 0000 34.3 N 142.8 E 965 85 70 03 SEP 22 0600 35.9 N 145.0 E 965 80 65 03 SEP 22 1200 37.2 N 147.6 E 980 70 55 NMCC: 38.0 N, 147.8 E 03 SEP 22 1800 39.4 N 151.1 E 985 60 50 03 SEP 23 0000 42.0 N 157.0 E 988 50 XTrop. / JMA bulletins 03 SEP 23 0600 43.0 N 164.0 E 1000 45 03 SEP 23 1200 45.0 N 172.0 E 1000 45 03 SEP 23 1800 46.0 N 179.0 E 994 45 03 SEP 24 0000 47.0 N 176.0 W 992 40 Note 1: JMA, through 17/0000 UTC, was following the same system which PAGASA had designated Tropical Depression Quiel (see separate track). At 17/0600 UTC JMA's track apparently jumped to another developing circulation in the monsoon trough, and then jumped again at 1200 UTC as the new center consolidated. Note 2: The 10-min avg MSW estimates from the Asian TCWCs are tabulated in the following table: Date Time Estimated 10-min avg MSW in kts (GMT) NMCC PAGASA CWB ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 03 SEP 17 1200 25 03 SEP 17 1800 30 25 03 SEP 18 0000 35 35 35 03 SEP 18 0600 40 40 40 03 SEP 18 1200 45 40 40 03 SEP 18 1800 45 40 45 03 SEP 19 0000 45 45 50 03 SEP 19 0600 50 50 03 SEP 19 1200 60 55 03 SEP 19 1800 65 60 03 SEP 20 0000 65 65 03 SEP 20 0600 65 65 03 SEP 20 1200 65 65 03 SEP 20 1800 70 65 03 SEP 21 0000 80 70 03 SEP 21 0600 80 70 03 SEP 21 1200 80 70 03 SEP 21 1800 80 70 03 SEP 22 0000 80 70 03 SEP 22 0600 70 65 03 SEP 22 1200 60 55 03 SEP 22 1800 50 50 ************************************************************************* Storm Name: KOPPU Cyclone Number: 17W Basin: NWP PAGASA Internal Name: SIKAT JMA Tropical Storm Number: 0316 Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 03 SEP 24 0000 14.9 N 141.2 E 1004 30 JMA bulletin 03 SEP 24 0600 15.5 N 140.4 E 1004 30 " 03 SEP 24 1200 15.9 N 136.9 E 1002 25 30 JMA: 15.6 N, 138.6 E 03 SEP 24 1800 16.5 N 136.0 E 1002 30 30 03 SEP 25 0000 16.7 N 135.8 E 1000 30 30 JMA: 16.0 N, 136.3 E 03 SEP 25 0600 16.5 N 135.7 E 998 30 30 03 SEP 25 1200 17.0 N 136.0 E 998 30 30 JMA: 16.2 N, 136.8 E 03 SEP 25 1800 17.2 N 135.9 E 998 30 30 JMA: 16.7 N, 137.0 E 03 SEP 26 0000 16.2 N 135.6 E 998 25 30 03 SEP 26 0600 18.1 N 136.7 E 998 25 30 03 SEP 26 1200 19.0 N 137.4 E 998 30 30 03 SEP 26 1800 19.9 N 137.9 E 996 30 35 03 SEP 27 0000 21.4 N 139.1 E 990 50 40 03 SEP 27 0600 22.2 N 139.6 E 980 60 50 03 SEP 27 1200 23.5 N 139.7 E 980 60 50 03 SEP 27 1800 24.4 N 139.9 E 975 60 55 03 SEP 28 0000 25.0 N 140.3 E 975 60 55 03 SEP 28 0600 25.7 N 140.6 E 975 60 60 03 SEP 28 1200 25.9 N 140.7 E 970 70 60 03 SEP 28 1800 26.7 N 140.9 E 970 80 60 03 SEP 29 0000 27.5 N 141.3 E 965 80 65 03 SEP 29 0600 28.4 N 141.7 E 960 90 70 03 SEP 29 1200 29.6 N 142.5 E 965 85 65 03 SEP 29 1800 30.6 N 144.5 E 965 75 65 03 SEP 30 0000 32.9 N 147.0 E 970 65 60 03 SEP 30 0600 35.0 N 149.4 E 976 45 60 03 SEP 30 1200 42.0 N 153.0 E 972 60 Xtrop. / JMA bulletins 03 SEP 30 1800 43.0 N 154.0 E 972 60 03 OCT 01 0000 45.0 N 156.0 E 972 60 03 OCT 01 0600 46.0 N 158.0 E 972 60 03 OCT 01 1200 47.0 N 160.0 E 976 60 03 OCT 01 1800 48.0 N 164.0 E 976 55 03 OCT 02 0000 48.0 N 167.0 E 976 50 Note: The 10-min avg MSW estimates from the Asian TCWCs are tabulated in the following table: Date Time Estimated 10-min avg MSW in kts (GMT) NMCC PAGASA ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 03 SEP 25 0600 30 03 SEP 25 1200 30 03 SEP 25 1800 30 03 SEP 26 0000 30 03 SEP 27 0000 35 03 SEP 27 0600 45 03 SEP 27 1200 50 03 SEP 27 1800 50 03 SEP 28 0000 50 03 SEP 28 0600 50 03 SEP 28 1200 60 03 SEP 28 1800 65 03 SEP 29 0000 70 03 SEP 29 0600 80 03 SEP 29 1200 70 03 SEP 29 1800 65 03 SEP 30 0000 60 03 SEP 30 0600 45 Note: No local warnings were issued on Koppu by CWB, but the agency did estimate the peak winds at 70 kts (10-min avg). ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E Sources of Information ---------------------- The track coordinates as well as the central pressure and 10-minute average maximum sustained wind estimates were obtained from warnings issued by Meteo France's Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre on Reunion Island (MFR), which is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre for the basin. The 1-minute average maximum sustained wind estimates were taken from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. The center position coordinates from JTWC were compared with those from MFR and annotations made in the Remarks column when the differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm or more. Systems Tracked --------------- Tropical Storm ABAIMBA (MFR-01 / 01S) 29 Sep - 04 Oct ************************************************************************* Storm Name: ABAIMBA Cyclone Number: 01S Basin: SWI MFR Tropical Disturbance Number: 01 Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 03 SEP 29 0600 5.0 S 63.5 E 1006 25 03 SEP 29 1200 4.3 S 63.2 E 1006 25 Locally 30 kts nr cntr 03 SEP 29 1800 4.3 S 63.1 E 1006 30 25 JTWC: 4.5 S, 64.2 E 03 SEP 30 0000 4.3 S 64.6 E 1005 30 03 SEP 30 0600 4.6 S 65.3 E 1003 35 30 03 SEP 30 1200 4.4 S 65.2 E 1003 30 03 SEP 30 1800 4.4 S 65.5 E 1003 35 30 03 OCT 01 0000 4.4 S 66.1 E 1000 30 03 OCT 01 0600 4.7 S 65.6 E 990 50 45 03 OCT 01 1200 4.8 S 66.7 E 990 45 03 OCT 01 1800 5.0 S 66.3 E 990 50 40 03 OCT 02 0000 5.2 S 67.0 E 995 40 03 OCT 02 0600 5.6 S 67.1 E 997 30 35 03 OCT 02 1200 5.6 S 67.3 E 998 30 30 03 OCT 02 1800 5.5 S 67.5 E 998 30 30 03 OCT 03 0000 6.1 S 67.3 E 998 30 03 OCT 03 0600 6.2 S 67.2 E 998 35 30 03 OCT 03 1200 6.5 S 67.1 E 999 25 Locally 30 kts SW semi 03 OCT 03 1800 6.7 S 66.9 E 1000 30 25 " 03 OCT 04 0000 6.5 S 66.7 E 1000 25 " 03 OCT 04 0600 7.0 S 66.0 E 1002 25 20 Locally 25 kts SW semi 03 OCT 04 1200 6.1 S 64.7 E 1002 20 " 03 OCT 04 1800 6.6 S 64.4 E 25 Final JTWC warning ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* !!!!!! IMPORTANT NOTE - PLEASE READ !!!!!! To repeat the caveat which is included in the Author's Note at the end of the cyclone summaries--the tropical cyclone tracks I prepare are based upon the operational warnings/advisories/ advices/bulletins which are issued by the various tropical cyclone warning agencies around the world. Users of these tracks should be aware that they are preliminary and subject to revision during post-seasonal analyses of the cyclones by the forecasters and analysts at the several warning centers. For the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific basins, official tropical cyclone reports and "best tracks" can be found at the website of the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center: The Joint Typhoon Warning Center's website contains links to their Annual Tropical Cyclone Reports which include that agency's "best tracks" for tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific basin, the North Indian Ocean, and the Southern Hemisphere: SPECIAL NOTE: Back issues of the global tropical cyclone summaries and monthly cyclone track files can be obtained at the following websites: PREPARED BY: Gary Padgett garyp@alaweb.com SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTIONS BY: Michael V. Padua michaelpadua@hotmail.com webmaster@typhoon2000.ph Huang Chunliang huangchunliang@hotmail.com ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* Published: 11.17.03 / Typhoon2000.ph, Typhoon2000.com