GARY PADGETT'S MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY JUNE, 2003 (For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see the Author's Note at the end of this summary.) ************************************************************************* JUNE HIGHLIGHTS --> Rare Atlantic depression forms east of Lesser Antilles --> Two out-of-season South Pacific tropical cyclones--one a hurricane --> Typhoon affects Philippines and Japan --> Tropical storms strike Mexico and Louisiana ************************************************************************* ***** Feature of the Month for June ***** NORTH INDIAN OCEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE STATISTICS ---------------------------------------------- For the past couple of years I have included some Dr. Gray-style Net Tropical Cyclone activity (NTC) statistics for the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific basins. It has been my wish to begin to produce similar tables for the other tropical cyclone basins, but I have not had the time to pursue this heretofore. A few years back I'd written some software to read through the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific Best Track files and calculate the required parameters, but I did not until recently have data for the other basins in a similar format. A few months ago I received from Charles Neumann a set of Best Track (BT) files for the North Indian Ocean and the Southern Hemisphere in essentially the same format--similar enough that with a little modification my earlier software would read the files and extract the needed parameters. So this month I'm featuring some tables of tropical cyclone statistics for the North Indian Ocean basin--the basin which has the lowest annual number of tropical cyclones, but which has seen tragically high numbers of lives lost due to intense storms sweeping across the coasts of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. For the present I have included only the period 1981 through 2002. Mr. Neumann indicated that the file, which begins with 1965, is based largely upon JTWC's database. I initially intended to begin with 1975, which was the first year that JTWC issued warnings operationally for essentially the entire basin. However, I discovered some discrepancies between the BT files and the Annual Tropical Cyclone Reports (ATCR) prepared by JTWC up through and including 1980. Since the two sources began to agree almost exactly in 1981, I chose that year as my starting point. JTWC began issuing tropical cyclone warnings for the eastern Bay of Bengal east of 90E in 1971. The area of coverage was extended west to 80E in 1974, covering the entire Bay of Bengal. In 1975 the western limit was extended again to 62E, taking in the eastern half of the Arabian Sea. Finally, in 1976 the AOR was extended westward to the African coast. For purposes of this discussion I have used the following definitions: NS - a tropical cyclone with 1-min avg MSW >= 34 kts H - a tropical cyclone with 1-min avg MSW >= 64 kts IH - a tropical cyclone with 1-min avg MSW >= 96 kts NSD - four 6-hour periods in which a NS is operating HD - four 6-hour periods in which a H is operating IHD - four 6-hour periods in which an IH is operating NTC - (((Total NS/Avg NS) + (Total H/Avg H) + (Total IH/Avg IH) + (Total NSD/Avg NSD) + (Total HD/Avg HD) + (Total IHD/Avg IHD))/6) x 100% In 1975 the BT file lists 7 NS with 4 H. The ATCR lists 6 NS with 3 H. However, one of the NS (a January system) is carried as only a depression in the BT file. For 1976 the differences are even greater. The BT file lists 10 NS with 7 H, but the ATCR lists only 5 NS with no hurricanes. As late as 1980, the BT file contains 4 NS, but the ATCR mentions only two, and both of those with a MSW of only 35 kts. However, beginning with 1981, there is perfect agreement regarding the number of storms, and the peak MSW values are usually the same, occasionally differing by perhaps 5 kts. This agreement between the two sources suggests that the BT file can be considered fairly reliable from that point on. I seem to recall an e-mail from Mr. Neumann several months ago when he sent the North Indian Ocean file in which he stated that he didn't have a whole lot of confidence in the intensities until the early 1980s. In compiling the statistics, I included all tropical cyclones which occurred in the basin, whether they originated there or not. During the period under consideration, I am aware of four systems of Northwest Pacific basin origin which either moved into or redeveloped in the Bay of Bengal: Gay of 1989, Forrest of 1992, Linda of 1997, and Vamei of 2001. I do not have the BT file for 2002 yet--for that year the numbers were taken from the operational tracks. I did not include certain non-operational systems in recent years which I had included in the monthly track files I prepare, based upon information from individual meteorologists who performed analyses of them at my request. Nor did I include a system in October, 2001, which was treated as a "cyclonic storm" by IMD but for which no warnings were issued by JTWC. One knowledgeable meteorologist stated to me that the system was almost certainly not a tropical storm. The tables follow. The information contained in each should be self-explanatory. Following the tabulated data are some comments. Annual Tropical Cyclone Activity -------------------------------- Year NS H IH NSD HD IHD NTC 1981 3 2 0 13.50 2.50 0.00 61 1982 5 2 1 15.00 3.75 1.00 119 1983 3 0 0 5.25 0.00 0.00 16 1984 4 2 0 17.00 4.25 0.00 78 1985 6 0 0 13.50 0.00 0.00 36 1986 3 0 0 4.75 0.00 0.00 16 1987 8 0 0 19.50 0.00 0.00 50 1988 5 1 1 12.25 4.00 0.75 102 1989 3 1 1 9.50 4.75 2.00 119 1990 2 1 1 9.00 3.25 2.00 106 1991 4 1 1 11.00 3.50 1.75 112 1992 11 3 1 36.50 4.00 2.00 194 1993 2 2 0 6.50 2.50 0.00 49 1994 5 1 1 12.00 2.25 1.00 96 1995 4 2 1 11.00 2.50 0.75 99 1996 8 4 1 32.25 3.75 1.00 170 1997 5 3 1 18.75 4.75 1.25 144 1998 8 5 1 19.50 6.50 0.50 172 1999 5 3 3 17.50 9.25 5.25 288 2000 4 1 0 10.00 1.25 0.00 43 2001 4 1 1 9.00 3.75 1.00 98 2002 5 0 0 12.75 0.00 0.00 32 Total 107 35 15 316.00 66.50 20.25 Avg. 4.86 1.59 0.68 14.36 3.02 0.92 Monthly Tropical Storm Activity ------------------------------- Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1981 1 1 1 1982 2 2 1 1983 1 1 1 1984 1 1 2 1985 2 2 1 1 1986 1 2 1987 1 2 2 1 2 1988 1 1 2 1 1989 1 1 1 1990 1 1 1991 1 1 1 1 1992 1 2 1 2 4 1 1993 1 1 1994 1 1 1 1 1 1995 1 1 2 1996 1 3 2 2 1997 1 1 3 1998 2 1 1 1 2 1 1999 1 1 1 2 2000 2 1 1 2001 1 1 1 1 2002 2 2 1 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Total 2 2 1 2 16 13 1 1 4 22 32 11 Avg. .09 .09 .05 .09 .73 .59 .05 .05 .18 1.00 1.45 .50 Monthly Hurricane Activity -------------------------- Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1981 1 1 1982 1 1 1983 1984 2 1985 1986 1987 1988 1 1989 1 1990 1 1991 1 1992 1 2 1993 1 1 1994 1 1995 2 1996 1 1 1 1 1997 1 1 1 1998 1 1 2 1 1999 1 2 2000 1 2001 1 2002 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Total 0 0 0 2 7 2 0 0 1 3 16 4 Avg. .00 .00 .00 .09 .32 .09 .00 .00 .05 .14 .73 .18 The latter two tables reveal what all those who study tropical cyclones on a global scale know--that the North Indian Ocean has in essence two tropical cyclone "seasons" each year. These occur during the spring and autumn transition seasons when the ITCZ is moving northward and southward, respectively, across the basin. The very low incidence of wintertime tropical cyclones is to be expected, but the almost complete absence during the midsummer months of July and August is most unusual compared with other tropical cyclone basins. The reason is that during the boreal summer the ITCZ migrates far enough north that by and large it lies over land. The very few storms which have formed in the latter part of June and in July and August usually developed at higher latitudes (around 20-23N) in the upper reaches of the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. The periods April-June and October-December account for 90% of the tropical storm and 97% of the hurricane activity, respectively. The only known storm of hurricane intensity during the period under consideration which formed outside the six months referenced above was a hurricane in September, 1997. November is the most active month for tropical storms (31), followed by October (22) and May (16). November also has the highest number of storms of hurricane intensity (16), but May has seen more hurricanes (7) than October (3). In fact, only two Octobers have seen hurricane activity since prior to 1981: 1996 and 1999. The month of October, 1999, stands out as one of the most remarkable months in recent history in the North Indian Ocean. Two very intense tropical cyclones formed in the Bay of Bengal and both struck India's eastern coastal regions with winds estimated at 120 kts and 140 kts, respectively. The second of these, TC-05B, was responsible for over 10,000 fatalities. With regard to the annual series chart (the first table), one feature which immediately grabs the attention is the very low incidence of intense tropical cyclones during the early and mid-1980s. From 1981 through 1987 only one IH developed, and there were three consecutive seasons with no cyclones of hurricane intensity reported. Since 1988 only three seasons have failed to produce an IH: 1993, 2000 and 2002. The 2002 season was the first since 1987 in which no hurricane-intensity systems developed. Except for 1982, the NTC was well-below average during the period 1981-1987. Activity began to increase in 1988, reaching a very high NTC of 194 in 1992--the year with the highest number of NS. The years 1996-1999 represent the multi-year period with the highest annual NTC. The "granddaddy" of all years was 1999 with a NTC of 288, due to the occurrence of three IH: the two October storms mentioned above, and an intense May hurricane (TC-02A) which struck northwestern India and Pakistan. One final comment--as noted above I chose to include all activity in the North Indian Ocean basin, both native storms and a few visitors from the Northwest Pacific basin. There are also some reasonable arguments for looking at a basin's annual activity in terms of only those cyclones which originated there. The inclusion of Typhoon Linda's Bay of Bengal excursion likely augmented the 1997 NTC by a fair amount, but the weak redevelopment of former Typhoon Vamei in December, 2001, added only a negligible boost to that year's NTC. However, it is a very different story for 1989 and 1992. Although the North Indian Ocean in 1992 produced a record 10 native NS, Tropical Storm Forrest from the South China Sea moved across the Malay Peninsula and intensified into a 125-kt cyclone in the Bay of Bengal, yielding two full IHD and giving a significant boost to that year's NTC. The NTC of 119 obtained for 1989 was even more dependent upon a visitor. A fairly strong tropical storm had occurred in May, and a minimal tropical storm developed in June, but that year saw no more activity until November, when Typhoon Gay moved from the Gulf of Thailand across the Malay Peninsula and intensified significantly in the Bay of Bengal. Gay eventually struck the eastern coast of India as a very small cyclone with winds estimated at 140 kts. Gay, Tropical Cyclone 02B of 1991, and Tropical Cyclone 05B of 1999 reign as a triumvirate of the most intense North Indian Ocean cyclones currently in the database, each reaching an estimated peak MSW of 140 kts (per JTWC's analysis). TC-05B of 1999 was deadly enough (as noted above), but TC-02B of 1991 was even deadlier--the storm resulted in an estimated 138,000 deaths in Bangladesh. ************************************************************************* ACTIVITY BY BASINS ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico Activity for June: 1 tropical depression 1 tropical storm Sources of Information ---------------------- Most of the information presented below was obtained from the various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida: discussions, public advisories, forecast/advisories, tropical weather outlooks, special tropical disturbance statements, etc. Some additional information may have been gleaned from the monthly summaries prepared by the hurricane specialists and available on TPC/NHC's website. All references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period unless otherwise noted. Atlantic Tropical Activity for June ----------------------------------- Two tropical cyclones developed in the Atlantic basin during the month of June with one becoming a named storm. A strong tropical wave moved off the west African coast on 7 June, moving westward. By the next day a 1012-mb LOW was associated with the wave. A Tropical Weather Outlook issued by TPC/NHC at 1530 UTC on the 9th indicated that there was some potential for further development of the wave, which was then located approximately 700 nm southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. By late on the 10th convection had increased and a tropical depression appeared to be forming. The first advisory on Tropical Depression 02 was issued at 0300 UTC on 11 June, placing the center approximately 1125 nm east- southeast of Barbados. Satellite intensity estimates during the early morning of 11 June suggested that the depression was near tropical storm intensity, but due to center location uncertainties based on nighttime infrared imagery, it was decided to wait for visible pictures before upgrading the system. The 1500 UTC advisory noted that while CI estimates remained at 35 kts from two agencies, convection had diminished and a recent QuikScat pass was inconclusive as to the intensity. The depression's signature began to go downhill from that point, and the final advisory at 12/0300 UTC downgraded the system to an open tropical wave roughly 750 nm east- southeast of Barbados. TD-02 was only the third known tropical depression to have formed east of the Lesser Antilles during June since 1967, the others being Tropical Storm Ana in 1979 and a strong tropical depression in the eastern Atlantic in 2000. Had TD-02 managed to reach tropical storm status, it likely would have died very young as the upper- level environment downstream was very hostile for tropical cyclone maintenance. The other tropical cyclone was Tropical Storm Bill, which was upgraded directly to a tropical storm on the first advisory at 1500 UTC on the 29th in the central Gulf of Mexico. Climatologically, a tropical storm forms in the Atlantic basin around every other year, and Bill was right on schedule, being the first June storm since the destructive Tropical Storm Allison in 2001. A complete report on Tropical Storm Bill follows. TROPICAL STORM BILL (TC-03) 29 June - 4 July --------------------------------------- A. Storm Origins ---------------- A Tropical Weather Outlook issued by TPC/NHC at 1530 UTC on 24 June seems to be the first mention of the area of disturbed weather which ultimately developed into Tropical Storm Bill. Cloudiness and thunder- storms had increased over the western Caribbean between Honduras and Jamaica in association with a westward-moving tropical wave which was interacting with an upper-level LOW. The activity was forecast to move slowly northwestward toward the Yucatan Peninsula. Little change in the disturbance was noted on the 25th and 26th, and the Outlooks on 26 June pointed out that upper-level conditions were unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation, but were forecast to become more favorable over the next few days. By early on the 27th convection had increased over the northwestern Caribbean Sea but there were no signs of any surface development. By late afternoon satellite imagery and surface observations indicated a broad area of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula accompanied by a sizeable area of convection over the Caribbean. Surface pressures had begun to fall, but significant development was being inhibited by the system's location over land. Little change was noted on the 28th--by late in the day disturbed weather extended from the Yucatan Peninsula northward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Early on 29 June visible satellite imagery revealed the development of a weak LLCC in the south- central Gulf, and ship H3GQ reported winds to 38 kts under the deep convection 150 nm northeast of the center around 1200 UTC. At 1300 UTC TPC/NHC issued a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement announcing that advisories would be initiated on the developing tropical storm at 1500 UTC. B. Storm History ---------------- The first advisory on Tropical Storm Bill was issued at 1500 UTC, placing the center approximately 400 nm south-southeast of Port Arthur, Texas, and moving northwestward at 12 kts. A tropical storm watch was issued for a portion of the Gulf of Mexico coastline extending from San Luis Pass, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana. The initial intensity was set at 35 kts--this was increased to 40 kts at 2100 UTC based on a ship report of 40-kt winds 80 nm northeast of the center at 1500 UTC and information obtained from a reconnaissance mission into the cyclone. The plane found maximum flight-level winds of 53 kts in the eastern quadrant at 2011 UTC with a central pressure of 1010 mb--somewhat high for a tropical storm, but the pressure gradient to the east of Bill was quite large. At 0300 UTC on 30 June Tropical Storm Bill's center was located about 190 nm south of Morgan City, Louisiana, moving north at 12 kts. As Bill's trajectory became more northerly, tropical storm warnings were shifted eastward accordingly, reaching to Pascagoula, Mississippi. A hurricane watch was also issued for portions of the coastline in the event that Bill should strengthen to hurricane intensity before making landfall. The center had moved northward closer to the deep convection, but the LLCC was still not embedded in the CDO feature. The center was estimated to be located near the southwestern edge of the cold cloud canopy. The MSW was upped to 45 kts in the 0300 UTC advisory, and this intensity was maintained in the 0900 UTC advisory package. The cyclone was moving northward around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge that extended from the Atlantic westward across the Florida Peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico. A reconnaissance flight into the storm during the morning found peak flight-level winds of 66 kts southeast of the center at 1330 UTC and a central pressure of 1001 mb. Based on this, Bill's intensity was increased to the peak of 50 kts at 1500 UTC. The storm by this time was centered only 45 nm south-southwest of Morgan City and closing in on the Louisiana coastline. As Bill approached the coast, the storm's motion became northeastward, and by 2100 UTC the center was making landfall over Terrebonne Bay about 25 nm (40 km) east of Morgan City. Bill was then moving northeastward at 8 kts with the intensity still estimated at 50 kts. A weather station in the area measured a MSLP of 997 mb as Bill was making landfall. By 0300 UTC on 1 July, the center of Bill was inland just west of Bogalusa, Louisiana, moving north-northeastward at 8 kts. The MSW had dropped to 40 kts, mainly over water to the southeast of the center. The Slidell/KLIX radar indicated Doppler velocities of 50-60 kts just a few hundred feet above the surface. Tropical Storm Bill was down- graded to a 30-kt tropical depression at 01/0600 UTC when located near Hattiesburg, Mississippi. At 0900 UTC the depression was located about 65 km south-southwest of Meridian, Mississippi, moving northeastward at 12 kts. Some fairly strong wind gusts were still affecting the coastal region from eastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The final TPC/NHC advisory on Tropical Depression Bill was issued at 1500 UTC on 1 July, placing the center near Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Maximum sustained winds were estimated no more than 20-25 kts. Responsibility for issuing information on the remnants of Bill was then assumed by the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) at Camp Springs, Maryland. Bill's slowly weakening remnants continued to move generally northeastward across the southeastern U. S., passing near Rome, Georgia, around 0300 UTC on 2 July and later near Knoxville, Tennessee. By 0300 UTC on the 3rd the LOW was passing about 55 km northeast of Danville, Virginia, and six hours later was about the same distance southeast of Washington, DC. By 1500 UTC all that remained was an elongated surface LOW along a stationary front with winds less than 10 kts. The lowest surface pressure was near Annapolis, Maryland, although the most impressive cyclonic circulation in satellite imagery was located in central Virginia associated with the upper-level LOW which had been coupled with Bill's remnants for the past 36 hours. The LOW subsequently moved out over the Atlantic and headed northeast- ward just off the Mid-Atlantic and New England coastlines. After moving back out to sea, winds picked up some, reaching 30 kts by 04/0000 UTC. According to Kevin Boyle, who followed the extratropical remnants of Bill, the system was located about 250 nm east-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland, around 0000 UTC on 6 July. Moving more quickly towards the east-northeast, the weakening LOW passed well north of the Azores on the 7th. By the next day a much larger LOW was becoming dominant, moving from Newfoundland into the mid-North Atlantic early on 9 July. Bill's remnant LOW was located within the warm sector of this much larger circulation. Bill's remains lost its identity on 9 July roughly 300 nm west of Ireland. However, the left-over moisture of the former tropical storm brought a hot and humid airmass to the UK on the 9th and 10th of July. (Thanks to Kevin for sending this tidbit of information.) C. Meteorological Observations ------------------------------ (1) Wind Reports ---------------- As Tropical Storm Bill made landfall over southeastern Louisiana on the afternoon and evening of 30 June, several stations reported sustained winds exceeding gale force. Louisiana State University maintains some automated weather stations south of Houma, and one of these recorded peak sustained winds of 41 kts, gusting to 48 kts, around 30/1800 UTC. Shortly before 2100 UTC, two of these LSU-maintained stations reported winds to 43 kts, gusting to 52 kts. An AWS on the Lake Pontchartrain Causeway recorded a gust of 53 kts around 0000 UTC on 1 July, and a gust of 47 kts was reported by the New Orleans International Airport at around the same time. Around 0300 UTC, the Gulfport, Mississippi, airport recorded a sustained wind of 32 kts, gusting to 45 kts. (All the above information was gleaned from the public advisories issued by TPC/NHC.) (2) Rainfall Amounts -------------------- The following rainfall information was obtained from the storm summaries issued by HPC after that agency had assumed responsibility for issuing bulletins on Bill. (a) Three-day rainfall totals exceeding 5 inches (127 mm) for the 72-hour period ending at 1800 UTC on 1 July: State Location Total (in) Total (mm) ----------------------------------------------------------------- LA Mandeville Lakefront 9.22 234 LA Hammond 8.40 213 LA Slidell 7.05 179 LA New Orleans Lakeside 6.62 168 LA New Orleans Intl Arpt 5.54 141 MS Pascagoula 8.85 225 MS D'Iberville 5.64 143 AL Robertsdale 7.46 189 AL Dauphin Island 6.80 173 FL Pensacola Naval Air Station 9.80 249 FL Crestview 5.44 138 Almost all of the heavy precipitation associated with Bill in the coastal region lay to the east of the storm's track. Baton Rouge, LA, which lay northwest of the track, received a 3-day total of only 1.84 inches, or 47 mm. (b) Two-day rainfall totals exceeding 4 inches (102 mm) for the 48-hour period ending at 1400 UTC on 2 July: State Location Total (in) Total (mm) ----------------------------------------------------------------- GA Gainesville 4.24 108 AL Coden 6.78 172 AL Bay Minette 6.58 167 AL Mobile 6.29 160 (c) One-day rainfall totals exceeding 3 inches (76 mm) for various 24-hour periods: State Location 24 hours ending Total (in) Total (mm) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- MS Hattiesburg 0000 UTC 2 July 3.38 86 AL Auburn 0000 UTC 2 July 4.35 110 AL Calera 0000 UTC 2 July 3.31 84 AL Evergreen 0000 UTC 2 July 3.27 83 GA Gainesville 0000 UTC 2 July 3.72 94 GA Peachtree City 0000 UTC 2 July 3.14 80 GA Rome 0000 UTC 2 July 3.09 78 GA Atlanta 0000 UTC 2 July 3.02 77 SC Florence 0000 UTC 3 July 3.12 79 SC Darlington 0000 UTC 3 July 3.09 78 VA Charlottesville 1200 UTC 3 July 5.01 127 Jacksonville, NC, recorded a six-hour total of 4.09 inches, or 104 mm, between 1200 and 1800 UTC on 2 July. D. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ In addition to the coastal flooding and heavy rain, Tropical Storm Bill produced at least five confirmed tornadoes. One of the tornadoes struck Reserve, Louisiana, damaging 20 mobile homes and injuring four people. The total damage estimate for Bill is currently placed at $30 million, and four deaths have been attributed to the storm. (Report written by Gary Padgett) ************************************************************************* NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180 Activity for June: 2 tropical storms Sources of Information ---------------------- Most of the information presented below was obtained from the various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida (or the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu, Hawaii, for locations west of longitude 140W): discussions, public advisories, forecast/advisories, tropical weather outlooks, special tropical disturbance statements, etc. Some additional information may have been gleaned from the monthly summaries prepared by the hurricane specialists and available on TPC/NHC's website. All references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period unless otherwise noted. Northeast Pacific Tropical Activity for June -------------------------------------------- On average the Northeast Pacific basin produces two tropical storms during the month of June with one reaching hurricane intensity. This year, two storms developed but neither reached hurricane status, so the overall level of tropical cyclone activity was a little below normal. Tropical Storm Blanca developed around mid-month off the Mexican coast southeast of Manzanillo and drifted erratically for several days, eventually dissipating not too far from its point of origin. A few days later short-lived Tropical Storm Carlos popped up southeast of Acapulco, and instead of following the forecast west-northwestward track parallel to the Mexican coastline, moved northward and inland near Puerto Escondido. Carlos was showing hints of an eye as it made landfall, and another 12 to 18 hours over the warm Pacific waters would likely have resulted in Carlos reaching hurricane intensity. Reports on Blanca and Carlos, written by John Wallace, follow. (A special thanks to John for his assistance.) Another tropical disturbance deserves mention. As the month of May closed, a large area of disturbed weather southeast of Acapulco began to show some signs of organization. The system drifted northward toward the coast and by the afternoon of 1 June was centered roughly 100 nm south-southeast of Acapulco and had become better organized. A potential for tropical depression development was noted in the Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by TPC/NHC, but the broad center reached the coast near Acapulco by late in the day, thereby putting the brakes on any further intensification. However, the attendant heavy rainfall posed a threat of flooding and landslides over a wide area for several days as the weakening disturbance moved slowly northward. TROPICAL STORM BLANCA (TC-02E) 17 - 22 June ----------------------------------------- A. Storm History ---------------- The disturbance that became Blanca was first visible just off the Mexican coast south of Acapulco late on 15 June. Cyclonic organization was definitely evident the following day, and the LOW steadily organized until it was upgraded to Tropical Depression Two-E at 0300 UTC on 17 Jun when located about 175 nm south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. Steering currents were very weak in its vicinity, which was a little unusual for its time of year and position. Nevertheless, they were able to impart an initially slow northwesterly motion. The overall environment of Two-E was not conducive to much strengthening: its proximity to land threatened it with dry air entrainment, it was close to unfavorably cool waters, and modest easterly shear impeded its development at first. Even so, Two-E organized enough to warrant its upgrade to Tropical Storm Blanca by 2100 UTC on 17 June when centered approximately 165 nm south-southeast of Manzanillo, and according to the NHC, a TRMM pass had already indicated a partial low-level eyewall at 1945 UTC that day. That said, Blanca's convection waxed and waned in a diurnal pattern that made its intensification slow and occasionally uncertain, especially once persistent easterly shear impinged on the circulation. This upper-level easterly current was in fact the main factor in pushing Blanca on a slow westward track, away from its originally threatening northwesterly one. This picayune tropical cyclone--with gale-force wind radii of only 40 to 50 nm--was tough, however, and endured the shear enough to reach its peak MSW of 55 kts, with an estimated CP of 997 mb, at 0300 UTC on 19 June. At the time of its peak intensity Blanca was centered about 150 nm south-southwest of Manzanillo. Blanca began a weakening trend immediately after its peak, due to a combination of shear and cooler SSTs across its track. Much as during its intensification phase, Blanca's decline was slow and uncertain as its convection and organization fluctuated day by day. In fact, whether Blanca truly weakened at all is open to debate--it may have had a second peak around 1400-1600 UTC on the 19th when the NHC noted that multi- spectral satellite imagery revealed a "low and mid-level eye feature" (1). Similar convective cycles enabled Blanca to hold on to tropical storm strength until 2100 UTC on 20 June, when its low and mid-level circulations were decoupled by the easterly shear. The depression drifted very slowly westward in erratic, stop-start fashion, with occasional bursts of convection that kept it alive longer than expected. Late in its life the depression actually took an unusual drift to the east as it became caught up in low-level southwesterly flow off the Mexican coast. The final advisory on Tropical Depression Blanca was issued at 1500 UTC on 22 June. Vague hints of its vortex remained visible offshore in satellite imagery until late the following day. B. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ There are no known casualties or damages associated with Tropical Storm Blanca. C. References ------------- (1) (Report written by John Wallace) TROPICAL STORM CARLOS (TC-03E) 26 - 27 June ----------------------------------------- A. Storm History ---------------- The precursor disturbance of Carlos was first noted as a cyclonic whorl of convection in the Pacific southwest of Nicaragua in satellite imagery taken late on 23 June. The LOW uneventfully tracked slowly west-northwestward over the next two days with little change in organization until late on the 25th, whereupon it was upgraded to Tropical Depression Three-E at 0300 UTC on 26 June when it was roughly 175 nm south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. The new depression was not in an ideal environment, due to possible interference from land and modest northeasterly shear. Though it was forecast to parallel the Mexican coast, its proximity warranted the issuance of watches and warnings for the coast upon its upgrade. The cyclone defied the forecasts, however. The ridge that was predicted to steer the system out to sea did not materialize as soon as expected, and Three-E drifted northward as it strengthened to Tropical Storm Carlos at 1800 UTC on 26 June roughly 155 nm southeast of Acapulco. Synoptic conditions became more favorable, and Carlos strengthened quickly, reaching its peak MSW of 55 kts, with an estimated CP of 994 mb, as it made landfall at 0600 UTC on the 27th at a location roughly 25 nm north- west of Puerto Escondido, Mexico. Carlos nearly became a hurricane; NHC discussions around the time of landfall state that a well-defined eye was present as it crossed the coast, so the 55-kt estimate may well be conservative. Carlos dissipated rapidly over the mountainous terrain of Mexico as it turned west-northwestward and accelerated slightly. Though a LLCC was doubtful by 1500 UTC on the 27th (1), the NHC kept the system in advisory status until 2100 UTC that day when they issued the last advisory on Tropical Depression Carlos. Carlos' remnant vortex drifted offshore, and retained cyclonic structure until late on the 30th when it finally dissipated. B. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ There are some reports of a few casualties resulting from Carlos, but unfortunately there is no solid official data available on them at the present time. C. References ------------- (1) (Report written by John Wallace) ************************************************************************* NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180 Activity for June: 1 typhoon Sources of Information ---------------------- Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I normally annotate track coordinates from some of the various Asian warning centers when their center positions differ from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more. All references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period unless otherwise noted. Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the Typhoon 2000 website, normally sends me cyclone tracks based upon warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the Philippines' Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). Also, Huang Chunliang of Fuzhou City, China, sends me each month tracks obtained from warnings issued by the National Meteorological Center of China (NMCC), the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan (CWBT) and the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO). A very special thanks to Michael and Chunliang for the assistance they so reliably provide. In the title line for each storm I have referenced all the cyclone names/numbers I have available: JTWC's depression number, the JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator, and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their area of warning responsibility. Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for June -------------------------------------------- Only one tropical cyclone formed in the Northwest Pacific basin during June, but it was a very impressive one. Typhoon Soudelor (named Egay by PAGASA) formed shortly before mid-month deep in the tropics well to the east of the Philippines. The cyclone moved westward, then took a jog northward as it neared the Philippine archipelago, moving roughly parallel to the islands from Samar to northeastern Luzon. After moving past Luzon, Soudelor/Egay finally reached typhoon intensity, steadily intensifying as it moved northward east of Taiwan. Peak intensity of 115 kts was reached as Soudelor passed west of Okinawa. After that, the storm turned north-northeastward as it began to weaken and passed through the narrow slot between South Korea and Japan into the Sea of Japan where it became extratropical. A full report on Typhoon Soudelor follows, written by Kevin Boyle with some additional material from Huang Chunliang and Karl Hoarau. (A special thanks to all these gentlemen for their assistance and inputs.) One other tropical storm was active in Western Pacific waters during June. On 1 June Tropical Depression 06W (named Dodong by PAGASA), which had formed in the South China Sea in late May, was upgraded to Tropical Storm Nangka. Nangka subsequently followed a northeasterly track through the Luzon Strait, passing between Luzon and Taiwan, and soon lost its tropical characteristics east of Taiwan. The full report on Tropical Storm Nangka/Dodong can be found in the May summary. TYPHOON SOUDELOR (TC-07W / TY 0306 / EGAY) 11 - 23 June --------------------------------------------- Soudelor: submitted by Micronesia, is the name of a legendary Pohnpei chieftain Egay: PAGASA name, is a Filipino female nickname A. Storm Origins ---------------- The summary for the eventful Typhoon Soudelor begins at 2100 UTC, 9 June. At this time JTWC issued a TCFA for a circulation centre located near 8.9N, 145.5E (approximately 270 nm south of Guam). The position was based on 09/1730 UTC satellite imagery. Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery revealed that deep convection continued to organize around the well-defined LLCC while a 09/1650 UTC TRMM pass showed organizing low-level cloud lines associated with the LLCC. Upper- level analysis showed a favourable wind shear pattern but with marginal outflow aloft. The system was moving westward at 10 kts with an estimated MSW and CP of 20-25 kts and 1004 hPa, respectively. By 10/2100 UTC the disturbance had continued westward to a position approximately 210 nm east of Yap (9.7N, 141.8E). Animated infrared satellite imagery by then revealed decreasing deep convection over an exposed LLCC. Upper- level analysis was at this time depicting low to moderate vertical wind shear with poor diffluence aloft. Based on this JTWC opted to issue a second TCFA rather than writing the first warning. JTWC issued the first warning on Tropical Depression 07W at 1800 UTC on 11 June after satellite CI estimates had reached 25 kts with the system exhibiting a 0.2 spiral band wrap. The depression was near 9.4N, 137.3E, or approximately 50 nm west of Yap, moving westward at 14 kts. The system continued to slowly develop through the 12th, although a 12/1214 UTC SSM/I pass and recent enhanced infrared satellite animation revealed a rather weak and disorganized system with the LLCC difficult to pinpoint with confidence. By 1800 UTC, however, TD-07W began to compose itself with animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery, 12/1657 UTC AMSU and 12/1538 UTC TRMM passes indicating a 0.4 spiral band wrap. TD-07W began to move more northwestward at a slower pace (6 kts) for awhile in response to interaction with a cyclonic circulation centred to the east-southeast near 8.8N, 138.9E. (JTWC issued a STWO statement on this LLCC at 13/0100 UTC, assessing the development potential as poor.) The fact that TD-07W was still located in a monsoon trough environment and the close proximity of the second disturbance likely inhibited development. B. Storm History ---------------- By 13/0000 UTC TD-07W began to move west and further from the hindering cyclonic circulation, and in response to this, the MSW increased first to tropical storm strength, then to 45 kts six hours later. At 13/0000 UTC JMA upgraded the LOW to a 30-kt tropical depression in their High Seas bulletins, and upgraded to tropical storm intensity twelve hours later, assigning the name Soudelor. (NMCC, CWBT and PAGASA had by this time all upgraded Soudelor to tropical storm intensity.) Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery showed well- defined spiral bands on both equatorward and poleward sides. This strengthening phase was thwarted by a TUTT cell located to the east, and at 1800 UTC the MSW had increased only 5 kts more to 50 kts. The system was also beginning its approach towards the Philippines at this time. PAGASA had begun issuing warnings on the system at 12/1800 UTC, naming the system Egay, the Filipino name for the cyclone. At 0000 UTC on 14 June Tropical Storm Soudelor/Egay was located 85 nm east of Samar, Philippines, or near 12.2N, 127.1E, with the MSW easing a little to 45 kts. At this time the cyclone was moving westward at 10 kts. The Prognostic Reasoning issued by JTWC at 14/0000 UTC fore- cast a more northerly heading within 24 hours as a longwave trough off the Chinese coast dug into the mid-level ridge northeast of Soudelor. This forecast verified and by 15/0000 UTC, Soudelor was moving toward the north at 10 kts in response to the developing weakness. The intensity of Soudelor/Egay had remained steady at 45 kts through the 14th, and microwave imagery revealed a partially-exposed LLCC at the northern edge of the deep convection. There was nothing more to add as the 15th dawned. The MSW remained at 45 kts and the LLCC was still partially-exposed. At 0000 UTC Tropical Storm Soudelor was located 130 nm northeast of Samar (14.2N, 126.6E), moving north at 10 kts. By 15/1200 UTC things had begun to liven up when animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery showed an increase in deep convection over the LLCC. Based on satellite CI estimates of 45 kts and 55 kts, JTWC increased the MSW to 55 kts, and six hours later to 60 kts. During the 15th and into the 16th, Soudelor/Egay was stair-stepping its way north or northwestward (at around 10 kts) along the western periphery of the mid-level ridge to the east. This path took the storm roughly parallel to the Philippines' northeastern coastline and into HKO's AOR at 15/1800 UTC with that agency then initiating warnings. A 15/2203 UTC SSM/I pass showed that the deep convection had continued to organize around the LLCC. Spiral bands were wrapping into the system from the south, and outflow conditions were improving with the longwave trough aiding diffluence to the north of the system. After remaining at 60 kts intensity for much of the 16th, Soudelor finally became a typhoon at 16/1800 UTC. (JMA did not upgrade Soudelor to typhoon intensity until 17/1200 UTC.) A 16/1330 UTC SSM/I 37-GHz pass revealed a well-defined 15-nm banding eye. The newly-upgraded typhoon was beginning to link up with the approaching longwave trough to the west, and this system was to drag Soudelor off on a north or northeasterly track which would take it towards the southern Japanese island chain. At 16/1800 UTC the eye was fixed uncomfortably close (50 nm) to the northeastern coastline of Luzon near 19.0N, 122.9E with the MSW estimated at 65 kts. Strengthening continued as the typhoon began to pull away from the Philippines. (Soudelor/Egay left PAGASA's AOR at 18/0000 UTC and HKO's AOR at 18/0600 UTC.) The MSW had increased to 75 kts by 0000 UTC, 17 June, and animated multi-spectral satellite imagery revealed a ragged, irregular-shaped 30-nm eye. The diameter of the eye shrunk to 12 nm as the MSW increased to 90 kts by 1800 UTC later that same day. At 1800 UTC, Typhoon Soudelor was passing to the east of Taiwan with the outer portion of the circulation setting off thunderstorm activity as seen in satellite animation. The intensification phase lasted into the 18th and a peak intensity of 115 kts was reached at 18/0600 UTC. (JMA's peak intensity of 80 kts (10-min avg) with an estimated CP of 955 mb occurred at 18/1200 UTC.) A symmetrical 18-nm eye was noted in multi-spectral imagery at this time. The system had by then moved to a position 190 nm west of Naha, Okinawa (26.3N, 124.2E), trekking northward at 13 kts and heading toward Japan. Upper-level analysis indicated that opportunities for further strengthening were dwindling fast and that the typhoon had already entered a region of unfavourable wind shear. By 1800 UTC the spiral bands took on a more ovate appearance, the eye faded, and the MSW dropped to 85 kts. The downward spiral continued. The 0000 UTC, 19 June JTWC warning located the centre of Soudelor near 32.5N, 128.5E, or 70 nm southwest of Sasebo, Japan. Water vapor imagery indicated that the system was beginning to resemble a cold-core mid-latitude system. The MSW had fallen to 75 kts and continued to decrease, falling below typhoon-force at 19/0600 UTC as Soudelor trekked west of Japan, past the southeastern coast of South Korea, and into the Sea of Japan. JTWC downgraded Soudelor to a tropical storm at 19/1200 UTC and declared it extratropical six hours later. The final warning placed the centre 160 nm northwest of Wajima, Japan, or near 39.7N, 134.9E. JMA ended warning transmissions at 19/1800 UTC. The extratropical remnants of once-powerful Typhoon Soudelor turned eastward, crossing northern Japan, and were last referenced at 0000 UTC on 23 June as a weakening 25-kt LOW far to the east of Honshu. C. Meteorological Observations ------------------------------ Karl Hoarau forwarded the following rainfall observations from the Philippines. (Thanks to Karl for passing along this information.) (1) 24-hour period from 0000 UTC June 14th to 0000 UTC June 15th: WMO 98546 Catarman (12.65N, 124.6E) 330mm (13 inches) WMO 98550 Tacloban (11.2N, 125E) 155mm (6.1 inches) WMO 98447 Virac radar (13.7N, 124.3E) 87mm (3.4 inches) WMO 98444 Legaspi (13.1N, 123.8E) 50mm (1.96 inches) (2) Six-hour total from 0000 UTC to 0600 UTC 15th June: WMO 98440 Daet (13.5N, 123.3E) 98mm (3.88 inches) WMO 98444 Legaspi (13.1N, 123.8E) 31mm (1.22 inches) WMO 98446 Virac airport (13.6N, 124.2E) 118mm (4.65 inches) WMO 98447 Virac radar (13.7N, 124.3E) 64mm (2.52 inches) (3) The lowest recorded sea level pressure was 997.3 hPa at Casiguran (WMO 98336 - 16.3N, 122.1E) at 1000 UTC 16 June. Some other pressure readings include: WMO 98447 Virac radar (13.7N, 124.3E) 999.4 hPa at 15/0500 UTC WMO 98233 Tuguegarao (17.6N, 121.7E) 997.5 hPa at 16/0800 UTC WMO 98232 Aparri (18.4N, 121.6E) 998.1 hPa at 16/1000 UTC Huang Chunliang has sent some wind observations from station Iriomotejima, Okinawa (WMO 47917 - 24.4N, 123.8E). (Thanks to Chunliang for sending this information.) Iriomotejima experienced sustained gale-force winds (10-min avg) at least from 17/2000 UTC through 18/0400 UTC with the exception of 17/2100 UTC when the station was in the typhoon's eye. The peak hourly MSW of 56 kts occurred at 2200 UTC shortly after passage of the eye. The minimum SLP of 968.1 hPa occurred around 2100 UTC during eye passage. Regarding the peak gust, Chunliang indicates that the maximum he could find was 104 kts. However, Section E is an analysis of Soudelor's intensity by Karl Hoarau, and he references a peak gust of 110 kts at Iriomotejima. D. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ Heavy rains unleashed by Typhoon Soudelor/Egay are known to have caused 11 deaths and 3 injuries in the Philippines. At last report, two persons were still missing. The Department of Social Welfare and Development declared on 17 June that 16,131 families had been displaced in the northern and central provinces of Sorsogon, Albay, Catanduanes and Camarines Sur by floods caused by the torrential downpours associated with Soudelor. Heavy rains also caused flooding, landslides, and mudflows in Taiwan. One of the major highways connecting Hsitou and Luku was blocked when a 10-km stretch of road in Nantou County was covered by debris and mud. Taipei's Sungshan Airport was forced to close three times as a result of the bad weather. There are no reports of casualties. A North Korean ship cargo loaded with industrial magnesium was stranded off the northwest coast of Japan after being refused entry into the Japanese port of Toyama. The Suyangsan had failed a safety check and had no lifeboats. The 874-ton vessel, with a crew of 16, had been anchored since 12 June and lay in the path of Typhoon Soudelor. Negotiations were being made between the captain and Toyama authorities for refueling arrangements. It is unknown what the final outcome was. Twenty-one storm-related injuries were reported in Japan as a result of Soudelor, mostly people struck by falling objects. None were serious. Damage statistics appear to have been light in Japan. However, there was damage to 26 houses: mainly dislodged tiles, broken windows, and shattered walls. Nearly 10,000 households were left without electricity. Transportation was disrupted with numerous flight cancellations. Train services in northern Kyushu were halted because of the bad weather. E. Analysis of Soudelor's Intensity ----------------------------------- The following was sent to me by Dr. Karl Hoarau. It is an analysis of Soudelor's intensity near the time of its passage over the station of Iriomotejima (WMO 47917 - 24.8N, 123.8E). I have reproduced it just as Karl sent it with some minor editing. (A special thanks to Karl for sending his analysis.) "There are some interesting features to notice when Typhoon Soudelor passed through the small Japanese islands on 17 June. Iriomotejima recorded a maximum gust of 110 kts from east-northeasterly winds in the northern eyewall. At 17/2100 UTC, while located in the elongated eye (12 x 7 nm) of Soudelor, the station recorded a minimum sea-level pressure of 968.1 hPa with winds of 7 kts. The gust of 110 kts corresponds to a MSW (1-min avg) of 90 kts. The pressure/wind relation- ship of Atkinson and Holliday (1977) still used in the NWP gives a CP of 954 hPa for 90 kts. A possible explanation for this feature is the small size of Soudelor's core. At 2100 UTC, situated 19 nm east of the eye's center, Ishigakijima recorded a SLP of 983.5 hPa and a 10-min avg wind of 42 kts (50 kts at 1900 UTC when the eye's center was 35 nm to the southwest). The station just missed the eastern eyewall as Soudelor was moving to the north-northeast at 13 kts. Most of the time for this type of track, the strongest winds are located in the eastern eyewall. But the F14 SSM/I overpass at 18/0014 UTC showed that the strongest convection was situated in the north and northwest portions of the eyewall. So, the intensity of the typhoon was probably near 90 or 95 kts if we consider that it is not certain if Iriomotejima recorded the strongest winds. "The Dvorak manual (subjective) T-numbers were at least 5.0 after 1400 UTC, and at 5.5 from 2000 UTC to 0230 UTC on the 18th. When Typhoon Soudelor passed over Iriomotejima at 2100 UTC, it displayed an Off-White embedded in a White ring. As the eye was elongated, a raw satellite Data T-number of 6.5 could not be retained. In fact, there is a rule in the Dvorak method (1984) about that: no plus adjustment can be made for large eyes (> 3/4 degree diameter within the surrounding Gray shade) or for elongated eyes. When no previous subtraction is made, 0.5 can be subtracted for elongated eyes having E (eye) numbers > 4.5. Elongated eyes are defined as those having a short axis < 2/3 the long axis within the surrounding Gray shade. Therefore, the raw data T-number was 5.5 at 2100 UTC. As Soudelor possessed an elongated eye most of the time until 18/0000 UTC, the satellite data T-number reached 6.0 only for 2-3 hours before that time and never after. "It appears the typhoon reached its peak around 18/0230 UTC with a warm (+19.7 C) and circular eye embedded in a Light Gray ring (raw data T-number of 5.5 for the last time). The visual picture revealed that the CDO had a 92-nm diameter. It is certain that after 2100 UTC on 17 June Soudelor kept on intensifying. At 2200 UTC, the pressure was still 970.7 hPa at Iriomotejima (968.1 hPa in the eye at 2100 UTC) when the center was 12 nm distant. Located in the southern eyewall, the station recorded a sustained wind of 60 kts (10-min avg). This is an indication that the pressure was still falling." In summary, Karl indicates that his estimate for the peak intensity of Soudelor was 105 kts at 18/0600 UTC (JTWC's estimate was 115 kts at that hour). (Report written by Kevin Boyle with contributions by Huang Chunliang and Karl Hoarau.) ************************************************************************* NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea Activity for June: No tropical cyclones ************************************************************************* SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E Activity for June: No tropical cyclones ************************************************************************* NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E Activity for June: No tropical cyclones ************************************************************************* NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E Activity for June: 1 tropical cyclone of gale intensity 1 interesting hybrid storm system Sources of Information ---------------------- The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for Northeast Australia/Coral Sea tropical cyclones are the warnings and advices issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Brisbane, Queensland, and Darwin, Northern Territory, and on very infrequent occasions, by the centre at Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. References to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period unless otherwise stated. In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from the Australian centres' coor- dinates by usually 40-50 nm or more. The JTWC warnings are also the source of the 1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included in the tracks file. Additionally, information describing details of satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings. Northeast Australia/Coral Sea Tropical Activity for June ------------------------------ In May, 2002, Tropical Cyclone Upia became the first tropical cyclone to be named by the Port Moresby, PNG, tropical cyclone warning centre in their small AOR in nine years. But they had only one year to wait before naming the next. Tropical Cyclone Epi formed on 5 June deep in the tropics east of New Guinea and south of New Britain. Epi, however, had a short life of only 12 hours as a tropical cyclone before being downgraded to a depression. A report on Tropical Cyclone Epi is included below, written by Simon Clarke. (A special thanks to Simon for his assistance.) Also included is a report on an interesting hybrid storm system off the Queensland coast in late June which brought strong winds and heavy rainfall to portions of the Queensland and New South Wales coastlines. TROPICAL CYCLONE EPI 5 - 7 June ---------------------------------------- Tropical Cyclone Epi was the first tropical cyclone of the season to develop in the small AOR of the TCWC at Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. Epi follows Tropical Cyclone Upia, which formed in a similar location late in the 2002 season. (A description of Upia can be found in the tropical cyclone summary for May, 2002) Epi formed at approximately 0630 UTC, 5 June 2003, near 7.9S, 152.9E, or about 50 nm northwest of Woodlack Island, from an area of fairly persistent convection stretching from New Guinea across toward the north of Fiji. Epi was a very short-lived cyclone, and was in all likelihood hampered in its development by a strengthening tropical LOW to its southeast. This tropical LOW eventually developed into a tropical cyclone and was named Gina. (A report on Gina follows in the section of this summary covering the South Pacific basin.) The second PNG warning at 05/1100 UTC placed Epi's centre about 65 nm northeast of Woodlack. The third and final warning at 05/1800 UTC located the weakening system about 40 nm east of the 1100 UTC position with winds having fallen below gale force. Jeff Callaghan from the Queensland Bureau of Meteorology makes the following observations (note some text editing for clarity): "The ascending QuikScat image shows a LOW developing on the south- western end of a shear line. The satellite infrared sequence (Dvorak enhancement) shows the development of a large curved band following the QuikScat pass. This band proceeded to be a feature during most of the daylight hours and had a 0.7 or 0.8 wrap (depending on the analyst). So it looked like a rapidly developing cyclone. There was no coverage over the system from the descending QuikScat pass, and after this the cloud features began to break up around 05/1400 UTC when strong northeasterly upper-level winds developed over the centre. Initially, the system appeared to be moving slowly west. However, Epi then paused and moved toward the east (indicating possible inter- action with Gina). This resulted in Epi's demise and weakening below cyclone status." Convection persisted in the vicinity of the former Tropical Cyclone Epi for several days. However, proximity to Gina ensured that conditions remained unfavourable for redevelopment. It is not clear exactly how intense Epi became during its life. A minimum central pressure of 985 hPa was advised, probably based on Dvorak analysis which showed a curved band pattern with a 0.8 wrap giving a T3.5. This intensity may in hindsight have been an over- estimation. It is noted that southwest winds of 30 kts between New Ireland and Bougainville were verified by two ships, giving credence to the presence of an area of gales under the deep convection. With respect to intensity, Jeff Callaghan points out the problem in these parts is that cyclones develop very rapidly in an area where there is almost no data. Rapidly developing cyclones in this area can be a major problem and have caused much loss of life. On some occasions destruction has occurred without warnings being issued. So, there is a need for timely warnings as various islands can quickly come under the influence of a tropical cyclone. A precautionary approach is therefore wise in this part of the world, especially considering that in the scheme of things, cyclones are very rare in this area. (Note: JTWC did not recognise Epi as a tropical cyclone, although a TCFA was issued at 0900 UTC on 5 June. The TCFA was cancelled at 06/0530 UTC after the system had weakened.) Several warnings were issued by the Papua New Guinea National Weather Service based in Port Moresby with warnings issued for coastal and island communities between Woodlack Island and Kiriwina Island. Watches were also issued for the rest of Milne Bay Islands. No reports of damage or casualties resulting from Tropical Cyclone Epi have been received. (Report written by Simon Clarke) Queensland Hybrid LOW 24 - 26 June --------------------- A. Storm History ---------------- In late June an interesting meteorological situation developed just off the Queensland coast. The Brisbane warning centre issued gale warnings on a LOW from the 24th through the 26th. This system formed in the tropics but had more of the characteristics of a hybrid storm. At 1600 UTC on 24 June the LOW was centred about 150 nm east- northeast of Townsville. The system moved generally southeastward fairly quickly and by 0600 UTC on the 26th had reached a position approximately 325 nm east-southeast of Brisbane. The highest winds forecast in the Brisbane warnings were 45 kts (10-minute mean), but sustained winds to 53 kts were recorded at Lord Howe Island as the storm passed just to the west of that station on the 26th. Bob Hart of Pennsylvania State University examined the storm's evolution with the cyclone phase space. According to Bob, the system evolved on 25 and 26 June from a decidedly cold-core, thermally asymmetric structure to a much more symmetric, shallow warm-core structure in a fairly short period of time. The system's phase trajectory was similar to that of some subtropical cyclones in the North Atlantic (such as the early states of Hurricanes Karen and Olga in 2001). Jack Beven of TPC/NHC noted that the system initially had a very baroclinic appearance similar to nor'easters off the U. S. East Coast, and although it later developed some central convection and possibly an eye-like feature, it still displayed a pronounced baroclinic cloud band. The PSU phase space diagrams for the system can be found at the following link: Another interesting feature of this storm system was a small trough system which circulated around the parent LOW. This small cyclonic eddy moved inland into northeastern New South Wales and southeastern Queensland where it caused localized severe wind damage and brought torrential rain. B. Meteorological Observations ------------------------------ (1) Rainfall Reports -------------------- Matthew Saxby of Queanbeyan, New South Wales, sent me some rainfall observations he'd obtained. Below are listed 24-hour totals which exceeded 63 mm (~2.5 inches) for 24, 25 and 26 June. (A special thanks to Matthew for sending the information.) 24 June: 0000 - 2300 UTC ------------------------ Mt. Charlton, Qld 104 mm Dalrymple Hts, Qld 80 mm Mackay, Qld 80 mm Mirani, Qld 80 mm Mackay East, Qld 69 mm Mackay Airport, Qld 63 mm 25 June: 0000 - 2300 UTC ------------------------ Warroo, Qld 66 mm Ballina Airport, NSW 190 mm Ballina, NSW 160 mm Alstonville, NSW 118 mm Nambucca Heads, NSW 68 mm Woodburn, NSW 67 mm Macksville, NSW 66 mm 26 June: 0000 - 2300 UTC ------------------------ Tomewin, Qld 108 mm Byron Bay, NSW 176 mm Mullumbimby, NSW 138 mm Murwillumbah 113 mm Cape Byron AWS, NSW 107 mm Ballina, NSW 106 mm Tweed Heads, NSW 79 mm (2) Wind Reports ---------------- Jeff Callaghan of the Brisbane TCWC sent along some wind observations from Lord Howe Island (31.5S, 159.0 E) as the system passed just to the west of that station. All the observations were taken on 26 June. (A special thanks to Jeff for passing along the information.) Time Wind Dir MSW (10-min) MSLP (UTC) (deg) (kts) (hPA) --------------------------------------------------- 0530 90 40 1004.9 0700 90 41 1000.0 0858 80 48 994.2 0944 80 53 992.8 0956 80 53 991.6 1014 60 50 993.7 1039 50 40 993.8 1057 70 50 992.6 1119 60 48 993.1 1200 50 40 993.5 C. Storm Effects ---------------- Six fishermen from the 25-metre, 80-ton vessel "Tan Sula" were rescued 32 nm east of Cape Byron on the northern NSW coast on 27 June by being winched onto two helicopters from Brisbane and Lismore. Seas on the Gold Coast of Queensland were large with significant wave heights to 4.3 m at the Brisbane wave rider buoy on 26 June. In NSW significant heights reached 5.5 m on the 27th at Coffs Harbour. Surfers were injured by the large waves and there were six major rescues off the NSW coast by lifeguards. Rivers overflowed in northern NSW causing flooding around Murwillum- bah, Mullumbimby and Byron Bay. Police rescued a 14-year old boy at Stokers Siding, 50 km from Byron Bay, who tried to save a calf from rising waters and became trapped in a tree. A fire brigade helped to evacuate children from two schools in the Brunswick region because buses were unable to cross the flooded roads. The large waves made river entrances in northern NSW and southern Queensland virtually impassable. The small trough system circulating around the larger LOW caused localized severe wind damage on the southern Gold Coast. Trees were brought down and a dozen homes were damaged by fallen trees, which also caused power outages. The Coolangatta AWS recorded 10-min avg winds to 34 kts for a brief period of less than 30 minutes. The above information was sent by Jeff Callaghan. Carl Smith, who lives on the Gold Coast, had the following to say: "As 'the Duck' (i.e., the larger LOW) passed here well off the coast and travelling southward, a cyclonic eddy formed closer to the coast, pushing heavy convective clouds over northeastern NSW, dumping torrential rains which caused flash floods and landslips. The main shopping area in Byron Bay was sandbagged to prevent floods damaging shops, and several towns in the area were flooded up to about 2 metres deep. "As the heavy convection moved into southeastern Queensland, gale- force winds buffetted the Gold Coast for many hours beginning around midday. I estimated that wind gusts here reached about 70 kts several times between 3pm and 5pm AEST (0500-0700 UTC), bringing down trees and power lines. We lost power here at about 4pm. Torrential rain fell into the evening as the winds eased--power was restored at about 6:15pm." (Thanks to Carl for his comments). (Report written by Gary Padgett, based upon inputs from Jeff Callaghan, Matthew Saxby, Carl Smith, Bob Hart and Jack Beven) ************************************************************************* SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E Activity for June: 1 tropical cyclone of hurricane intensity Sources of Information ---------------------- The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for South Pacific tropical cyclones are the warnings and advisories issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Nadi, Fiji (for waters north of latitude 25S), and Wellington, New Zealand (for waters south of latitude 25S). References to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period unless otherwise stated. In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from the Southern Hemisphere centres' coordinates by usually 40-50 nm or more. The JTWC warnings are also the source of the 1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included in the tracks file. Additionally, information describing details of satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings. South Pacific Tropical Activity for June ---------------------------------------- The 2002-2003 tropical cyclone season in the South Pacific east of 160E was the most active and vigorous since the great 1997-1998 season. Through the end of April, eight tropical cyclones had been named, along with one visitor from the Brisbane AOR. Six of these cyclones, including Erica from the Australian Region, were intense tropical cyclones. It appeared that the season had ended very quietly with short-lived, minimal Tropical Cyclone Fili in mid-April. However, things took a different turn in early June. A tropical disturbance in the Solomon Islands began to intensify, and Tropical Cyclone Gina was named on the 5th. Gina moved initially southwestward and almost became an intense cyclone as winds reached 80 kts (90 kts 1-min avg from JTWC). However, as the cyclone approached the 18th parallel, it turned sharply to the southeast and weakened very rapidly. In its early formative stages Gina affected the small island of Tikopia, which was blasted by extremely intense Tropical Cyclone Zoe in late December. The following report on Gina was authored by Simon Clarke--a special thanks to Simon for his assistance. TROPICAL CYCLONE GINA (TD-17F / TC-29P) 4 - 9 June ----------------------------------------- A. Storm Origins ---------------- Gina was a rare June cyclone in the Southwest Pacific, and coupled with Tropical Cyclone Epi, which formed for a short while to Gina's northwest, brought an unusual conclusion to the most active season in that basin in five years. Gina was first identified as a westward-moving depression well to the northeast of Vanuatu within an area of fairly persistent convection stretching to the west toward the Solomon Islands. JTWC was quick to pick up the system, and by late on 4 June 2003 had upgraded the initial depression to cyclone status (TC-29P) while located some 610 nm east of Honiara, Solomon Islands. At this time, RSMC Nadi identified the system as a tropical depression (TD-17F) and commenced issuing advisories and gale warnings. B. Storm History ---------------- TD-17 continued to move towards the west-southwest at 5 kts under the steering influence of the low to mid-level ridge to the south. Under ever-improving upper-level outflow conditions, Gina was named by RSMC Nadi at Jun 05/0600 UTC near 11.4S, 169.1E, or approximately 550 nm east-southeast of Honiara. During the course of 6 June 2003, Gina gradually increased its forward momentum to 10 kts while steadily intensifying. By June 07/0000 UTC and near 15.8S, 163.0E, or about 425 nm south-southeast of Honiara, Gina attained a CP of 970 hPa and hurricane status with winds of 65 kts. A ragged cloud-filled eye subsequently became more distinct in satellite pictures. Organization remained good, although the convection was diminishing gradually, perhaps in response to the nearby remnants of Tropical Cyclone Epi. Peak intensity was attained at Jun 07/1200 UTC with the storm near 16.8S, 162.1E, or approximately 365 nm west-northwest of Port Vila, Vanuatu. The peak intensity was maintained for 12 hours. Gina had attained a minimum CP of 950 hPa with a MSW (10-min avg) of 80 kts close to the centre. At this time Gina was a compact cyclone with a distinct eye. (JTWC's peak 1-min avg MSW was 90 kts, in excellent agreement with Nadi's estimate.) After this time, the cyclone approached a region of stronger shear and cooler SSTs. Gina slowed its west-southwesterly momentum and turned toward the southeast and then east-southeast in response to a short-wave trough approaching from the west, south of 20S. Gina's demise was rapid with convection torn away from the LLCC to the southeast by the strong shear. The 08/1800 UTC warning from Nadi placed the centre of the weakening storm near 18.2S, 164.8E, or about 200 nm west-southwest of Port Vila. However, an interim advisory was issued at 2200 UTC relocating Gina to a point approximately 200 nm to the northwest of the 1800 UTC position. This relocation, no doubt, was based upon the receipt of early morning visible satellite imagery. By Jun 09/0600 UTC Gina had lost cyclone status near 16.4S, 162.0E, or approximately 375 nm west-northwest of Port Vila. At the time, the precise location of the centre was difficult to locate. However, it was clear that the remnant depression had stalled, becoming almost stationary. Gale warnings for winds of up to 40 kts associated with the remnants of Gina were issued through 10/0700 UTC, after which time the winds eased below gale force. C. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ Tropical Cyclone Gina was to spend its entire life at sea. In its early stages of formation, the cyclone was reported to have affected the island of Tikopia, which was battered by the very intense Tropical Cyclone Zoe in December, 2002. However, there were no specific reports of damage or loss of life. The Australian media reported that the vessel 'Grace 2' sailing from Bowen (North Queensland) to Vanuatu foundered when it encountered Tropical Cyclone Gina on 8 June 2003. A mayday was broadcast, and in a 3-hour rescue operation, the Indonesian Ship 'Daio Copihue' picked up the crew while en route from New Zealand to Japan. (Report written by Simon Clarke) ************************************************************************* EXTRA FEATURE In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and acronyms. I have tried to define most of these with the first usage in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then. Most of these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a few aren't clear to some. To remedy this I developed a Glossary of Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the July, 1998 summary. I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in order to help keep them from being too long. If anyone would like to receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy to send them a copy. ************************************************************************* AUTHOR'S NOTE: This summary should be considered a very preliminary overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers. The information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning centers will be passed along from time to time. The track files are not being sent via e-mail. They can be retrieved from the archive sites listed below. (Note: I do have a limited e-mail distribution list for the track files. If anyone wishes to receive these via e-mail, please send me a message.) Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files created in DOS editor. Download to disk and use a viewer such as Notepad or DOS editor to view the files. The first summary in this series covered the month of October, 1997. Back issues can be obtained from the following websites (courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Michael Pitt, and Chris Landsea): Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office. Their site contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones globally on a monthly basis. The URL is: TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE JTWC now has available on its website the complete Annual Tropical Cyclone Report (ATCR) for 2002 (2001-2002 season for the Southern Hemisphere). ATCRs for earlier years are available also. The URL is: Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor" tracking charts for the 2002 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones; also, preliminary storm reports for all the 2002 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as well as track charts and reports on storms from earlier years. The URL is: A special thanks to Michael Bath of McLeans Ridges, New South Wales, Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries. PREPARED BY Gary Padgett E-mail: garyp@alaweb.com Phone: 334-222-5327 John Wallace (Eastern North Pacific, North Indian Ocean, Western Gulf of Mexico) E-mail: dosidicus@aol.com Kevin Boyle (Eastern Atlantic, Western Northwest Pacific, South China Sea) E-mail: newchapelobservatory@btinternet.com Simon Clarke (Northeast Australia/Coral Sea, South Pacific) E-mail: saclarke@iprimus.com.au ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* >> Published: 10-08-03 / Typhoon2000.com / Typhoon2000.ph