GARY PADGETT'S MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY JUNE, 2002 (For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see the Author's Note at the end of this summary.) ************************************************************************* JUNE HIGHLIGHTS --> Tropics rather quiet--two named storms in North Pacific ************************************************************************* ***** Feature of the Month for June ***** PATTERNS OF ATLANTIC INTENSE HURRICANE ACTIVITY I had something else planned for the Feature of the Month spot, but it will require some more work and correspondence, so in the interest of getting the June summary out quickly, I'm substituting a "quickie". This is an updating and revision of a response I'd written to an e-mail posted on the WX-TALK discussion list several years ago. This dates back to June, 1997, and a couple of messages had been posted on the discussion list with which I disagreed, and so I wrote a rebuttal of sorts, utilizing some statistics which I'd gleaned from the annual track charts and the Best Track file. The e-mails in question had made statements such as: (1) "With the exception of Gilbert, there has been a notable absence of hurricanes, especially westward-moving hurricanes, in the Caribbean."; and a reply to that one (2) "This is very true. There has been a decided absence of westward-moving, classic hurricanes penetrating the Caribbean and reaching the Gulf of Mexico over the past 30 or so years." There was a decided drop in the overall number of intense hurricanes (IH), storms which reach Category 3 or higher on the Saffir/Simpson scale, after the mid-1960s. But what is often overlooked is that from the mid-1960s through the late 1980s, there was an INCREASE in major hurricanes moving through the central Caribbean as compared with the period 1944- 1965. Below are presented three different measures which indicate that the oft-referred to "downturn" period of the late 1960s through the 1980s was actually a more active period for IHs in certain portions of the basin. For purposes of this discussion I have defined an Atlantic intense hurricane as a system which moved westward north of the easternmost tip of the island of Hispaniola of at least tropical depression intensity and was at Category 3+ status at some point west of there. A Caribbean intense hurricane is a storm which moved westward south of the eastern- most tip of Hispaniola and was of Category 3+ intensity west of that point. I began with 1944 as that was the year in which aerial recon- naissance of tropical cyclones was initiated on a regular basis and the intensities can be considered somewhat reliable. During the period 1944-1962, the only examples of Caribbean IHs are (** indicates that the storm was of hurricane intensity in the Gulf of Mexico): Storm #4, 1944 Charlie, 1951 ** Hazel, 1954 Janet, 1955 ** From 1963-1998, the cases are: Flora, 1963 Cleo, 1964 Inez, 1966 ** Beulah, 1967 ** Edith, 1971 ** Carmen, 1974 ** Greta, 1978 David, 1979 Frederic, 1979 ** Allen, 1980 ** Emily, 1987 Gilbert, 1988 ** Joan, 1988 However, from 1989 to the present the only examples are: Georges, 1998 ** Iris, 2001 Camille of 1969 and Celia of 1970 almost fit into this group, as they were strong tropical waves when they passed south of Hispaniola but did not develop circulations until in the western Caribbean. Another measure of the change in the pattern of IH tracks in the 1960s was the marked increase in the number of IH landfalls along the U. S. Gulf of Mexico coastline. Between the Texas hurricane of August, 1942, and Carla in 1961, the only IH to make landfall on the U. S. Gulf Coast west of Apalachicola was the anomalously early Audrey in June, 1957. (Note: The Texas hurricane of August, 1945, is currently classified as a Category 2 hurricane based on central pressure, but the Best Track file indicates significantly higher winds. It is generally agreed that many of the MSW entries in the Best Track file for intense hurricanes are too high for years prior to around 1970. It will be interesting to see how this hurricane is treated during the ongoing re-analysis of the Atlantic hurricane database.) From 1961 to 1985 there was a pronounced increase in major hurricanes making landfall along the central and western Gulf Coast: Carla, 1961 Frederic, 1979 Hilda, 1964 Allen, 1980 Betsy, 1965 Alicia, 1983 Camille, 1969 Elena, 1985 Celia, 1970 Andrew, 1992 Carmen, 1974 Opal, 1995 Eloise, 1975 Bret, 1999 With the exception of Betsy and Andrew, which entered the Gulf after crossing the southern Florida Peninsula, all these major Gulf Coast storms either originated in the Gulf of Mexico or came from the Caribbean (including Elena which moved right over central Cuba). The Mexican Gulf Coast and Central America are also regions which experienced an increase in IH landfalls after the mid-1960s. The only IHs to strike those regions between 1944 and 1965 were Charlie of 1951, Janet of 1955, and Hattie of 1961. Hurricanes Janet and Hattie were Category 5 hurricanes when they made landfall in Mexico (Yucatan) and Belize, respectively. The Best Track file indicates that Hurricane Hilda of 1955 made landfall near Tampico as a Category 2 hurricane, although earlier it had been at Category 3 intensity in the Bay of Campeche. Since 1966 the following major hurricanes have struck Mexico and/or Central America: Inez, 1966 Mexico (Gulf) Ella, 1970 Mexico (Gulf) Edith, 1971 Central America Carmen, 1974 Mexico (Yucatan) Caroline, 1975 Mexico (Gulf) Anita, 1977 Mexico (Gulf) Greta, 1978 Central America Gilbert, 1988 Mexico (Yucatan and Gulf) Joan, 1988 Central America Roxanne, 1995 Mexico (Yucatan) Iris, 2001 Central America Two near-misses in recent years as far as IH landfalls go were Mitch in 1998 and Keith in 2000. The torrential rains of Mitch were responsible for catastrophic loss of life and damage in Honduras and Nicaragua, but the storm had weakened from its intense Category 5 status into a minimal hurricane by the time the center made landfall. Keith was of Category 4 intensity just off the southern Mexican Yucatan and northern Belize coastlines, but had weakened into a strong tropical storm by the time the center moved onshore. Given that there was an overall decrease in the total number of IHs after the mid-1960s, but a significant increase in the number moving along the central Caribbean track, it follows that there must have been a sharp decline in the number of Atlantic IHs moving north of Hispaniola. That is indeed the case. During the 22 seasons from 1944 through 1965, there were 25 Atlantic IHs as I've defined above. Indeed, Hurricanes Charlie of 1952 and Frances of 1961 could be counted in this category as they passed almost directly over the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic as tropical storms and reached Category 3 intensity in the western Atlantic. Also, the very intense Hurricane Easy of 1951 all but reached the longitude of eastern Hispaniola, its point of recurvature being very slightly east of due north of that location. However, during the next 29 seasons (1966-1994) there were only ten Atlantic IHs. After Faith of 1966, there was not another until Hurri- cane Eloise of 1975 which, ironically, ultimately became an IH in the Gulf of Mexico. Of these ten storms, Ella of 1978 was a higher latitude development of subtropical origin, and Hurricane Kate of 1985 was an anomalously late-season storm in the latter part of November which followed a typical mid-season track into the Gulf of Mexico across the northern coast of Cuba. This severe reduction in IHs tracking north of the Greater Antilles led to a complete absence of IH landfalls along the U. S. East Coast for a long period of time. No IH struck the East Coast between Betsy of 1965 and Gloria of 1985 (and it's question- able whether or not Gloria was a Category 3 hurricane at landfall, based on the Best Track intensities). South Florida enjoyed a 27-year "vacation" between Betsy and Andrew in 1992. South Carolina experienced a 30-year gap in IH landfalls between Gracie in 1959 and Hugo in 1989. New England enjoyed a 25-year break, at least in significant hurricane strikes, from 1960 (Donna) to 1985 (Gloria). And Hurricane Fran in 1996 was the first clear-cut major hurricane (wind-wise) to strike North Carolina since the mighty Hurricane Hazel of 1954. Beginning with the hyperactive Atlantic season of 1995, however, there has been a big turnaround in these north-of-Hispaniola IH tracks. The 1995 and 1996 seasons alone produced seven such storms: Felix, Luis, Marilyn, Bertha, Edouard, Fran and Hortense; and Bonnie of 1998 and Floyd of 1999 fall into this category also. True, several of these were "squeakers". Hortense almost passed directly over the tip of Hispaniola while Luis' and Marilyn's points of recurvature were not far to the west of the longitude of the eastern tip of the island. But Bertha, Edouard and Fran of 1996 as well as Bonnie and Floyd followed the classic track with all but Edouard striking the U. S. along the North Carolina coastline (although only Fran was of Category 3 intensity at landfall). In their classic 1960 book, _Atlantic Hurricanes_, Dunn and Miller refer to a 1955 study by Dr. H. C. Willett entitled "A Study of Tropical Hurricanes Along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States." The discussion was about possible climatic cycles which had led to the increase in strong hurricanes affecting the Middle Atlantic and New England areas since the mid-1930s. Dunn and Miller state that Dr. Willett was a leading student of long-range weather trends, and to quote a portion of their discussion: "Dr. Willett forecasts an end to the present warm dry cycle within the immediate future and that within ten years (by 1965), hurricanes will return to their traditional track in the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Atlantic....And along with this change in cycle would be associated a small but significant decrease in frequency." The cases cited above seem to bear out this forecast: there was a decrease in tropical cyclone frequency, especially in the 1970s and 1980s, even with better detection tools, and there was a noticeable increase in hurricane tracks across the central Caribbean with storms affecting Central America, Mexico, and the central and western U. S. Gulf of Mexico coastline in greater numbers than during the 1940s and 1950s. And just as the pattern which prevailed from the latter 1960s until 1994 had been forecast well in advance, so also the pattern which abruptly began in 1995 was also forecast several years in advance. Around 1990, Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University and his seasonal forecasting team began predicting a return to the sort of conditions which had been prevalent during the 1940s, 1950s and early 1960s. Nine Atlantic IH tracks over five seasons (1995-1999), as compared with only 10 during the previous 29 seasons, certainly announce that a change in tropical Atlantic atmospheric conditions has occurred. And, as one might expect, there has been a decided drop-off in Caribbean IH tracks, the only ones since the two great Caribbean hurricanes of 1988 being Georges and Iris, and of these, Georges barely qualified as it passed only a very short distance south of Hispaniola's eastern tip. This inverse relationship between East Coast and Gulf Coast IH land- falls has happened before. Between 1906 and 1926 the U. S. East Coast enjoyed a complete hiatus in IH landalls. But between 1909 and 1919, nine major hurricanes struck the central and western U. S. Gulf Coast, and another (in 1909) made landfall in extreme northeastern Mexico just south of the Rio Grande. And of these 10 storms, all but two were of Atlantic tropical wave origin, passing through the central Caribbean and ultimately into the Gulf of Mexico. The very quiet period in the Gulf of Mexico during the late 1940s and 1950s was probably in part just good fortune. Intense hurricanes which strike the central and western U. S. Gulf coastline as well as the upper Mexican coast may have traveled through the central Caribbean, but also storms originating in the Gulf and in the western Caribbean (such as Opal of 1995) may strike those areas. Also the Gulf is subject to IH landfalls from storms moving through the Florida Straits or over the extreme southern portion of the Peninsula, e.g., Betsy and Andrew. Because of this, the frequency of IH landfalls along the Gulf Coast over several such multi-decadal cycles would not be expected to show as much variation as in certain other areas. However, throughout the entire 20th century, all of the IHs striking the U. S. East Coast--with three exceptions--formed in the Atlantic and moved westward north of the island of Hispaniola. Therefore, when there is a major decline in the number of such storms for 2 or 3 decades, it follows that the East Coast will likely see very few landfalling IHs during that time. But since the number of central Caribbean tracks appear to increase during such periods, the U. S. Gulf Coast as well as Mexico and Central America can expect to see a modest upswing in the number of intense landfalling hurricanes. (Note: The three exceptions referred to above are King of 1950, and Carol and Hazel of 1954.) MINOR CORRECTION TO MAY FEATURE ------------------------------- In the May Feature of the Month I incorrectly stated that Michael V. Padua's Typhoon 2000 website had originated in 1998 as Typhoon '98. Michael informed me that actually he had launched it on 2 November 1997 as Typhoon '97. ************************************************************************* ACTIVITY BY BASINS ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico Activity for June: No tropical cyclones Atlantic Tropical Activity for June ----------------------------------- No tropical storms or depressions formed in the Atlantic during June, 2002. Over the period 1950-2001, 27 tropical storms have formed during June (0.52 per year) with 10 reaching hurricane intensity (0.19 per year). During the past ten seasons there have been five tropical storms named in June--exactly the long-term average--but with only one reaching hurricane intensity. The last June hurricane in the Atlantic was Hurri- cane Allison in 1995, which made landfall in the Florida Panhandle near St. Marks as a strong tropical storm. Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 brought incredibly heavy rains to the Houston area, resulting in devastating floods with over 20 fatalities. While no tropical cyclones formed during June, disturbed weather prevailed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula and the Bahamas for quite a few days during the month. All this was due to tropical waves and surface troughs, in some cases interacting with upper-level LOWs. ************************************************************************* NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180 Activity for June: 1 tropical depression 1 tropical storm Sources of Information ---------------------- Most of the information presented below was obtained from the various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida (or the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu, Hawaii, for locations west of longitude 140W): discussions, public advisories, forecast/advisories, tropical weather outlooks, special tropical disturbance statements, etc. Some additional information may have been gleaned from the monthly summaries prepared by the hurricane specialists and available on TPC/NHC's website. All references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period unless otherwise noted. Northeast Pacific Tropical Activity for June -------------------------------------------- June tropical activity was below normal in the Eastern North Pacific. Over the period 1971-2001, June has produced an average of two tropical storms per year with one reaching hurricane intensity. Only one fairly short-lived tropical storm formed during June, 2002. There was also a tropical depression (TD-03E) which was active during the final days of the month. The depression formed on 27 June about 950 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. The system moved generally west-northwestward for a couple of days and remained poorly-organized, although it did produce some impressive bursts of deep convection. By 0600 UTC on the 29th the depression had weakened into a remnant LOW about 1450 nm west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, or about 1350 nm east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. The summary below on Tropical Storm Boris was written by John Wallace of San Antonio, Texas. TROPICAL STORM BORIS (TC-02E) 8 - 11 June ---------------------------------------- A. Storm Origins ---------------- The disturbance that became Boris was evident in satellite imagery as early as 3 June. The disturbance remained disorganized for several days, probably due to land interaction as it straddled the southern coast of Mexico. A very broad cyclonic circulation had appeared by 6 June; the following day it finally tracked into the ocean and the system developed accordingly. The first advisory on Tropical Depression Two-E was issued at 1715 UTC on 8 June when it was located 160 nm west of Acapulco, Mexico. The depression tracked slowly west-northwestward, south of a weak ridge. Inhibited by shear at first, it nevertheless became organized enough to warrant its upgrade to Tropical Storm Boris at 0300 UTC on 9 June, located 140 nm south of Manzanillo, Mexico. B. Track and Intensity History ------------------------------ The cyclone's proximity to land justified the issuance of a tropical storm watch for the coast, extending from Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, at 2100 UTC on the 8th. It's bark proved worse than its bite, however, as Boris stalled on the 9th, sandwiched between ridges to its north and south. Indeed, it remained stalled or quasi-stationary for the rest of its existence while stiff easterly shear gnawed away at its convection. Boris still managed to reach a peak MSW of 50 kts at 1500 UTC on 9 June, with an estimated CP of 997 mb, while located some 135 nm south of Manzanillo. According to the advisory issued at this time, a QuikScat pass had revealed low-level winds of 50 kts--minus a closed circulation. Boris' intensity dropped immediately after its peak as strong easterly shear took its toll. Ship ELYL8 reported a 39-kt MSW and a MSLP reading of 1003.8 mb 70 nm north of the center around 0000 UTC on the 10th; the storm had more life than its deteriorating satellite signature suggested. Even so, Boris weakened as it spun aimlessly offshore. Though SSTs were warm, persistent shear prevented regeneration. By 1500 UTC on the 10th, it was little more than a low-level vortex, devoid of deep convection. Boris was downgraded to a depression and all watches for the coast were dropped. After a few intermittent bursts of convection, the final advisory on Tropical Depression Boris was issued at 2100 UTC on 11 June, placing the center about 185 nm west of Acapulco. The remnant vortex had dissipated by the 13th. C. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ Both the Mexican National Meteorological Service and the NHC state that wind and rain affected the Mexican coast, but no casualties are known to have resulted. According to the NHC, there was some relatively minor coastal damage to homes due to heavy rains. ************************************************************************* NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180 Activity for June: 2 tropical storms ** 1 typhoon ** - both storms formed on 29 June and continued well into July and will be covered in the July summary Sources of Information ---------------------- Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I normally annotate track coordinates from some of the various Asian warning centers when their center positions differ from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more. All references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period unless otherwise noted. Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the Typhoon 2000 website, normally sends me cyclone tracks based upon warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the Philippines' Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). Also, Huang Chunliang of Fuzhou City, China, sends me each month tracks obtained from warnings issued by the National Meteorological Center of China (NMCC), the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan (CWBT) and the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO). A very special thanks to Michael and Chunliang for the assistance they so reliably provide. In the title line for each storm I have referenced all the cyclone names/numbers I have available: JTWC's depression number, the JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator, and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their area of warning responsibility. Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for June -------------------------------------------- Three tropical cyclones formed in Northwest Pacific waters during the month of June. One of these, Noguri, became a small typhoon of moderate intensity early in the month, tracking out of the South China Sea and turning northward east of Taiwan, eventually passing west of Okinawa and weakening as it neared Japan. The month was quiet across the western Pacific until the final days of the month. Two systems formed simul- taneously, one in the Philippine Sea and one far to the east in the vicinity of Pohnpei. Both were upgraded to tropical storm status by JMA at the same time with the westernmost depression being named Rammasun and the easternmost one Chataan. Both cyclones subsequently reached typhoon intensity with Rammasun moving northward, passing east of Taiwan and eastern mainland China and eventually making landfall in South Korea as a weakening tropical storm. Chataan, after dawdling for several days in the vicinity of Chuuk, where it was responsible for extremely heavy rainfall, began moving west-northwestward as it increased to typhoon intensity and moved directly across the island of Guam as a Category 2 typhoon (on the Saffir/Simpson scale). Chataan later briefly became a super typhoon, then weakened and flirted with the Japanese coastline as it recurved northeastward. Since both of these tropical cyclones reached maturity in July and lasted well into the month, they will be covered in the July summary. TYPHOON NOGURI (TC-07W / STS 0204 / ESPADA) 6 - 11 June ------------------------------------------------ Noguri: contributed by South Korea, is the raccoon dog--a small grayish- brown animal with black markings on its face and on its thick, furry tail A. Storm Origins ---------------- The only Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone to form during the month of June had its beginnings in a monsoon trough which extended eastward from the coast of Vietnam across the South China Sea. A broad LLCC had formed by early on 4 June--a SSM/I pass at 04/0205 UTC and animated satellite imagery revealed that significant development had occurred during the past six hours with a developing banding feature wrapping into the LLCC from the southwest. Water vapor imagery revealed an upper- level trough extending over the coast of China while a mid-level analysis indicated air mass continuity over the suspect area through 500 mb. JTWC assessed the potential for development to be fair. A TCFA was issued at 0000 UTC on 5 June. Animated satellite imagery indicated a developing LLCC with associated deepening convection south- east of Hainan Dao. CIMSS analysis products indicated that the LLCC was situated beneath an upper-level ridge with favorable outflow aloft and weak to moderate vertical shear. At 0600 UTC the center was located roughly 150 nm south-southwest of Hong Kong and was quasi-stationary with most of the deep convection confined to the eastern semicircle. JTWC issued the first warning on Tropical Depression 07W at 0000 UTC on 6 June. (HKO also classified the system as a depression at this time.) The initial warning intensity was estimated at 30 kts, based on CI estimates of 25 and 35 kts, and the center was located roughly 150 nm south-southeast of Hong Kong. TD-07W was located in a region of weak to moderate vertical shear and consisted of a broad LLCC with deep convection limited primarily to the southeastern quadrant. The system moved slowly eastward toward the Luzon Strait during the next 24 hours with little change in intensity or organization. At 07/0000 UTC the depression's center was located approximately 185 nm west- southwest of southern Taiwan, moving eastward at 9 kts. PAGASA began issuing warnings on the system as it entered their AOR, naming it Espada (a Spanish noun meaning "sword"). As the depression continued eastward its organization began to improve and PAGASA upgraded it to Tropical Storm Espada at 07/0600 UTC. Espada's center passed about 65 nm south of Taiwan around 1200 UTC, and at 1800 UTC JTWC also upgraded the system to tropical storm status, based on CI estimates and ship reports of 35-kt winds. Convection was developing over the LLCC, and water vapor imagery revealed that a longwave trough moving over the East China Sea had helped in the establishment of a poleward outflow channel. B. Track and Intensity History ------------------------------ JTWC increased the MSW to 45 kts at 0000 UTC on 8 June--at the same time HKO upgraded Espada/07W to tropical storm status. Six hours later NMCC and JMA both classified the system as a tropical storm with JMA assigning the name Noguri. Deep convection near the LLCC temporarily weakened early on 8 June but was redeveloping by 1200 UTC. A 08/0953 UTC TRMM 37 GHz image indicated a well-defined vortex center on the western edge of the new deep convection. Noguri's earlier eastward and east-northeastward motion had been due to the steering influence of a low to mid-level ridge southeast of the cyclone. The ridge was forecast to build east of the storm, inducing it to turn more toward the northeast. This is exactly what happened--at 1800 UTC Noguri's center was located approximately 320 nm southwest of Okinawa, moving northeastward at 7 kts. JTWC upped the MSW to 55 kts at 1800 UTC, even though convection had decreased somewhat in the western semicircle as a shortwave trough passed north of the system. NMCC and PAGASA were reporting maximum 10-min mean winds of 50 kts while JMA and HKO were estimating the intensity at 40 kts. A surprise was in store on 9 June. Multi-spectral satellite imagery indicated the development of a cloud-filled eye, and CI estimates jumped to 65 and even up to 90 kts. At 09/0000 UTC JTWC upgraded Noguri to an 85-kt typhoon, located about 260 nm southwest of Naha, Okinawa. A SSM/I image at 08/2205 UTC had depicted a small area of deep convection with a well-defined eye and a broad region of dry air west of the system. Even though some CI estimates remained at 90 kts through 1800 UTC, JTWC did not increase the MSW above 85 kts. Noguri was a compact typhoon with gales extending outward around 70-75 nm from the center. NMCC upgraded Noguri to a typhoon at 0600 UTC with the 10-min avg MSW esti- mated at 70 kts. NMCC classified the storm as a typhoon for 18 hours while PAGASA upgraded it to minimal typhoon status for only one warning cycle. The peak intensity estimated by JMA, Hong Kong, and Taiwan was 60 kts (10-min avg). The small typhoon turned northward and by 1800 UTC was located about 160 nm southwest of Okinawa. TRMM and SSM/I passes during the day revealed a partial eyewall with most convection located in the eastern semicircle. A SSM/I pass at 09/1134 UTC depicted a small eye with very little deep convection extending out from the eyewall. Satellite imagery indicated that the system was beginning to experience shear from the west as a small upper-level ridge built to the west of the cyclone. At 0000 UTC on the 10th Noguri was approximately 90 nm southwest of Naha and moving north-northeastward. The storm was still experiencing shear and the intensity was lowered to 75 kts. The Okinawa radar loop indi- cated that the center tracked just east of the island of Miyako around 09/1700 UTC. A SSM/I pass at 09/2151 UTC indicated that the remaining deep convection was localized in the southeastern quadrant. JTWC downgraded Noguri to a 55-kt tropical storm at 10/1200 UTC when the storm was centered about 270 nm south-southwest of Sasebo, Japan. The cyclone's northeastward motion had accelerated to 16 kts. Deep convection was rapidly weakening and system was beginning to transition into an extratropical cyclone. JTWC downgraded Noguri to a 30-kt tropical depression at 1800 UTC, but JMA was reporting the 10-min avg MSW at 45 kts. The final JTWC warning on Noguri was issued at 11/0000 UTC with the system located about 380 nm west-southwest of Tokyo, racing northeastward at 33 kts. JMA had dropped the winds to 35 kts, and the final bulletin from that agency was issued at 0600 UTC, placing the center inland near Kyoto. The system either dissipated over Honshu, or else was absorbed into an extratropical LOW moving eastward over the Sea of Japan. C. Comparisons Between JTWC and Other Centers --------------------------------------------- NMCC's peak 10-min avg MSW of 70 kts compares rather well with JTWC's peak 1-min avg MSW of 85 kts. As noted above, PAGASA was the only other warning agency to upgrade Noguri to typhoon status, and that only for a six-hour period. All the other warning centers (JMA, HKO and CWBT) estimated the peak 10-min avg sustained wind at 60 kts. D. Meteorological Observations ------------------------------ Just as I was about ready to send out the June summary, I received some rainfall totals recorded on Taiwan during several tropical cyclones. These were sent to me by Huang Chunliang--a special thanks to Chunliang for passing them along. The data were compiled by Professor Chun-Chieh Wu of National Taiwan University and his student, Wei-Peng Huang. A special thanks also to these gentlemen for sending the information to Chunliang. The amounts are tabulated for various periods by station name and county. For Typhoon Noguri (rainfall amounts in mm): -------------------------------------------- 1. Storm totals, from 05/1600 UTC through 06/1900 UTC: LIUFENLIAO, Nantu County 134 JEASHIAN, Kaohsiung County 90 JIYUEHTAN, Nantu County 75 YU CHIH, Nantu County 71 NIU-TON, Ilan County 67 SHANGDER, Pingtung County 66 TSAOLING, Chiayi County 76 O MEI, Hsinchu County 67 2. Storm totals, from 06/1600 UTC through 07/1900 UTC: MU-TAN, Pingtung County 320 MA TSUMIAO, Tainan County 107 MA TOU SAN, Chiayi County 77 E. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ No reports of damage or casualties resulting from Typhoon Noguri have been received by the author. ADDENDUM TO MAY SUMMARY ----------------------- The Taiwan rainfall tables sent by Huang Chunliang also included some amounts recorded during the passage of Tropical Depression Dagul (06W) in late May. I have included these in the table below. For Tropical Depression Dagul, May, 2002 (rainfall amounts in mm): ------------------------------------------------------------------ 1. Storm totals, from 28/1600 UTC through 30/0700 UTC: MU-TAN, Pingtung County 191 SHOU CHIA, Pingtung County 137 SAUKUANSAN, Kaohsiung County 182 ************************************************************************* NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea Activity for June: No tropical cyclones North Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for June --------------------------------------------- No tropical cyclones developed in the Bay of Bengal or the Arabian Sea during June. A tropical disturbance formed on the 1st near the west coast of India, south of Bombay. The system exhibited improved organization on the 2nd and JTWC upgraded the development potential to fair, estimating the maximum winds in the 20-25 kt range. However, by the next day the system had moved inland over western India and weakened. There were some episodes of disturbed weather in both the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal later in the month but none of these disturbances became very well-organized. ************************************************************************* SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E Activity for June: 1 tropical disturbance Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for June ------------------------------------------------- A tropical disturbance developed in the Southwest Indian Ocean during June which elicited the issuance of several bulletins from the La Reunion TCWC. The system was located approximately 525 nm east-southeast of Diego Garcia at 11/0600 UTC and subsequently moved slowly southward over the next few days, accelerating on the 14th. By the time the final bulletin was issued at 0600 UTC on the 15th, the system was located about 900 nm southeast of Diego Garcia. JTWC did not issue any warnings on this system, but did assign a fair potential for development from the 10th through the 12th, downgrading it to poor on the 13th. On 13 June MFR estimated the MSW near the center at 25 kts, reaching 30 kts up to 250 nm from the center in the southern semicircle. ************************************************************************* NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E Activity for June: No tropical cyclones ************************************************************************* NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E Activity for June: No tropical cyclones Northeast Australia/Coral Sea Tropical Activity for June ----------------------------- No tropical cyclones developed in waters around northeastern Australia during June, but I did receive a report from Jeff Callaghan concerning a hybrid low-pressure system which brought gales, heavy rains and heavy seas to portions of Australia. I have included Jeff's write-up below verbatim (with some minor editing). A special thanks to Jeff for sending the report to me. A LOW in the middle atmosphere developed overland in southeast Queens- land by 2 June 2002. At the surface a large HIGH moved across southeast Australia while a trough developed to the east of the upper LOW, gener- ating gale-force winds along the south coast of Queensland. The trough developed east of Bowen between Marion Reef and Frederick Reef, and because of the large HIGH over southeast Australia, it had the same effect as a deep East Coast LOW. The gales extended northwards up to the Capricorn Coast by 4 June 2002. The low-level onshore flow and the upper LOW combined to produce areas of very heavy rain. On Tuesday, 4 June 2002, torrential rain and flash flooding occurred in the Yeppoon area with general falls between 80 mm and 100 mm in the 24 hours to 2300 UTC, 3 June 2002. Very heavy rain (with thunder) began falling at about 2230 UTC, 3 June 2002, and continued until 0030 UTC, 4 June 2002. Reports of amounts in that two-hour period ranged from 120 mm to 320 mm. The heaviest rainfall areas seemed to be around Kinka Beach (halfway between Yeppoon and Emu Park), Emu Park itself, and at Zilzie just south of Emu Park. Some of the reports received were Kinka Beach--359 mm in total, with 70 mm of it before 2100 UTC. Another Kinka Beach resident reported a 322 mm total--102 mm before 2300 UTC and 220 mm after 2300 UTC--while a report from a resident 1 km inland from Kinka Beach indicated 305 mm for a total and 75 mm before 2300 UTC. At Barlows Hill, just north of Yeppoon, 150 mm was recorded in 90 minutes, and at Kemp Beach 330 mm was recorded in total with 240 mm after 2300 UTC. Emu Park reported 290 mm in the 7 hours to 0500 UTC, 4 June 2002. Zilzie recorded a total of 380 mm with 320 mm after 2100 UTC. The Keppel Sands Coastguard registered 245 mm up to 0200 UTC. There was one report of 446 mm at Kinka Beach for the whole event. A number of houses were inundated by stormwater at Emu Park and motor vehicles were abandoned. Gales generated large seas, and near Lady Musgrave Island, five yachtsmen were rescued off two yachts: Banshee and Moonfleet. Both yachts were destroyed by the seas. Rundle Island automatic weather station (AWS) reported gales from 1700 UTC, 3 June 2002, until 0900 UTC, 4 June 2002. The strongest 10-minute average wind recorded at the AWS was 45 knots. The strongest 10-minute average wind recorded at Double Island Point AWS was 39 knots, at Lady Elliot Island AWS 35 knots, at Frederick Reef 38 knots, at Gannet Cay AWS 41 knots, and at Cape Moreton AWS 45 knots. ************************************************************************* SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E Activity for June: No tropical cyclones ************************************************************************* EXTRA FEATURE In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and acronyms. I have tried to define most of these with the first usage in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then. Most of these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a few aren't clear to some. To remedy this I developed a Glossary of Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the July, 1998 summary. I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in order to help keep them from being too long. If anyone would like to receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy to send them a copy. ************************************************************************* AUTHOR'S NOTE: This summary should be considered a very preliminary overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers. The information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning centers will be passed along from time to time. The track files are not being sent via e-mail. They can be retrieved in the following manner: (a) FTP to: hrd-type42.nhc.noaa.gov [140.90.176.206] (b) Login as: anonymous (c) For a password use your e-mail address (d) Go to "data" subdirectory (Type: cd data) (e) Set file type to ASCII (Type: ascii) (f) Transfer file (Type: get remote_file_name local_file_name ) (The files will be named with an obvious nomenclature--using June as an example: jun02.tracks) (g) To exit FTP, type: quit Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files created in DOS editor. Download to disk and use a viewer such as Notepad or DOS editor to view the files. The first summary in this series covered the month of October, 1997. If anyone wishes to retrieve any of the previous summaries, they may be downloaded from the aforementioned FTP site at HRD. The summary files are catalogued with the nomenclature: jun02.sum, for example. Back issues can also be obtained from the following websites (courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua and Michael Pitt): OR Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office. Their site contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones globally on a monthly basis. The URL is: TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE JTWC now has available on its website the complete Annual Tropical Cyclone Report (ATCR) for 2001 (2000-2001 season for the Southern Hemisphere). ATCRs for earlier years are available also. The URL is: Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor" tracking charts for the 2001 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones; also, preliminary storm reports for all the 2001 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as well as track charts and reports on storms from earlier years. The URL is: A special thanks to Michael Bath of Wollongbar, New South Wales, Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries. PREPARED BY Gary Padgett E-mail: garyp@alaweb.com Phone: 334-222-5327 AND John Wallace E-mail: dosidicus@aol.com ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* Published 08.01.02 / Typhoon2000.ph, Typhoon2000.com