GARY PADGETT'S GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS - FEBRUARY 2002 !!!! IMPORTANT -- PLEASE SEE NOTE AT END OF FILE !!!! ************************************************************************* NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180 NOTE: The tracking information for Northwest Pacific Basin tropical cyclones is based primarily upon operational warnings from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U.S. Air Force and Navy at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. Comparisons were made with track coordinates given in advisories from the meteorological services of Japan (JMA) and the Philippines (PAGASA). In general, whenever the center position differed by more than 40-50 nm from JTWC's, an entry was made in the Remarks column. The 1-min avg MSW were taken from the JTWC advisories while the 10-min avg MSW and central pressure estimates were obtained from JMA's advisories. For the system below, JMA was the only agency to classify it as a tropical depression. Systems Tracked --------------- Tropical Depression 15 Feb ************************************************************************* Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: None Basin: NWP PAGASA Internal Name: None JMA Tropical Storm Number: None Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 02 FEB 15 0000 5.6 N 130.8 E 1006 30 02 FEB 15 0600 6.0 N 130.5 E 1006 30 02 FEB 15 1200 6.5 N 130.1 E 1008 30 02 FEB 15 1800 8.5 N 128.8 E 1008 30 Note: System was classified as a tropical depression by JMA only. ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E NOTE: The tracking coordinates, 10-min avg MSW, and estimates of central pressure were obtained from the RSMC La Reunion's (MFR) advisories, while the 1-min avg MSW values were taken from JTWC's warnings. Systems Tracked --------------- Intense Tropical Cyclone FRANCESCA (MFR 08 / 12S) 30 Jan - 12 Feb Tropical Disturbance (MFR 09) 05 - 06 Feb Intense Tropical Cyclone GUILLAUME (MFR 10 / 15S) 14 - 22 Feb ************************************************************************* Storm Name: FRANCESCA Cyclone Number: 12S Basin: SWI MFR Tropical Disturbance Number: 08 Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 02 JAN 30 1800 13.0 S 93.0 E 1003 25 Locally 30 kts 02 JAN 31 0600 12.0 S 89.4 E 1003 25 " 02 JAN 31 1200 12.4 S 89.9 E 1002 25 " 02 JAN 31 1800 12.7 S 90.2 E 999 30 02 FEB 01 0000 12.9 S 89.0 E 998 25 30 02 FEB 01 0600 13.3 S 87.5 E 998 30 Locally 35 kts 02 FEB 01 1200 13.5 S 85.8 E 997 30 " 02 FEB 01 1800 13.5 S 85.0 E 997 30 30 " 02 FEB 02 0000 13.4 S 84.4 E 997 30 " 02 FEB 02 0600 14.2 S 82.7 E 997 35 30 02 FEB 02 1200 14.0 S 81.8 E 991 35 40 02 FEB 02 1800 13.8 S 80.7 E 984 45 50 02 FEB 03 0000 14.1 S 80.1 E 980 55 02 FEB 03 0600 14.3 S 79.4 E 975 60 60 02 FEB 03 1200 15.0 S 78.9 E 973 60 02 FEB 03 1800 15.0 S 78.1 E 973 70 60 02 FEB 04 0000 14.9 S 77.7 E 965 70 02 FEB 04 0600 14.9 S 77.4 E 958 85 75 02 FEB 04 1200 15.0 S 77.7 E 950 85 02 FEB 04 1800 15.5 S 77.9 E 925 115 100 02 FEB 05 0000 15.8 S 78.4 E 925 100 02 FEB 05 0600 16.1 S 78.7 E 925 110 100 02 FEB 05 1200 16.4 S 79.2 E 945 85 02 FEB 05 1800 16.9 S 79.6 E 952 100 80 02 FEB 06 0000 16.9 S 79.8 E 958 75 02 FEB 06 0600 17.2 S 80.0 E 968 85 65 02 FEB 06 1200 17.4 S 80.3 E 968 65 02 FEB 06 1800 17.8 S 80.8 E 968 85 65 02 FEB 07 0000 17.8 S 81.2 E 968 65 02 FEB 07 0600 18.0 S 82.0 E 962 85 70 02 FEB 07 1200 18.2 S 82.5 E 957 75 02 FEB 07 1800 18.7 S 83.1 E 958 95 75 02 FEB 08 0000 19.2 S 83.4 E 958 75 02 FEB 08 0600 19.6 S 83.5 E 954 95 80 02 FEB 08 1200 20.0 S 84.1 E 954 80 02 FEB 08 1800 20.3 S 84.5 E 954 80 80 02 FEB 09 0000 20.9 S 84.7 E 955 80 02 FEB 09 0600 21.4 S 84.7 E 955 80 80 02 FEB 09 1200 21.9 S 84.8 E 960 75 02 FEB 09 1800 22.0 S 84.8 E 965 70 70 02 FEB 10 0000 22.3 S 84.8 E 972 60 02 FEB 10 0600 22.5 S 84.8 E 975 65 55 JTWC: 23.0 S, 85.0 E 02 FEB 10 1200 22.8 S 85.0 E 978 55 02 FEB 10 1800 23.2 S 85.2 E 984 50 50 02 FEB 11 0000 24.0 S 85.4 E 984 50 02 FEB 11 0600 25.1 S 85.8 E 990 40 40 02 FEB 11 1200 25.7 S 86.0 E 994 45 Locally 50 kts to south 02 FEB 11 1800 26.5 S 86.2 E 995 35 45 Extratropical 02 FEB 12 0000 27.6 S 86.4 E 995 45 Locally 50 kts to south 02 FEB 12 0600 29.1 S 86.5 E 995 45 " 02 FEB 12 1200 29.8 S 87.4 E 998 45 Final bulletin ************************************************************************* Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: None Basin: SWI MFR Tropical Disturbance Number: 09 Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 02 FEB 05 1200 20.7 S 39.3 E 1005 25 Locally 30 kts 02 FEB 06 0600 21.8 S 40.7 E 1005 20 Locally 30 kts E quad ************************************************************************* Storm Name: GUILLAUME Cyclone Number: 15S Basin: SWI MFR Tropical Disturbance Number: 10 Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 02 FEB 14 1200 18.0 S 50.0 E 1005 20 Locally 25-30 kts 02 FEB 15 0600 16.0 S 50.9 E 1003 25 Locally 30 kts S quad 02 FEB 15 1200 16.0 S 51.2 E 1000 25 " 02 FEB 15 1800 15.7 S 51.4 E 1000 30 25 " 02 FEB 16 0000 15.0 S 51.6 E 997 30 02 FEB 16 0600 14.7 S 52.5 E 997 35 30 02 FEB 16 1200 14.5 S 52.9 E 995 35 02 FEB 16 1800 14.2 S 54.4 E 993 50 35 02 FEB 17 0000 14.4 S 55.3 E 975 55 02 FEB 17 0600 14.5 S 56.4 E 965 90 70 02 FEB 17 1200 14.9 S 57.2 E 950 80 02 FEB 17 1800 15.5 S 58.1 E 950 90 80 02 FEB 18 0000 16.2 S 58.8 E 950 80 02 FEB 18 0600 16.8 S 59.3 E 950 100 80 02 FEB 18 1200 17.5 S 59.4 E 925 100 02 FEB 18 1800 18.1 S 59.5 E 920 120 105 02 FEB 19 0000 19.0 S 59.4 E 920 120 105 02 FEB 19 0600 19.4 S 59.2 E 925 115 100 02 FEB 19 1200 20.1 S 59.0 E 930 115 100 02 FEB 19 1800 20.6 S 58.9 E 930 115 100 02 FEB 20 0000 20.7 S 58.8 E 930 100 02 FEB 20 0600 21.0 S 58.9 E 930 120 100 02 FEB 20 1200 21.7 S 59.2 E 930 100 02 FEB 20 1800 22.4 S 59.8 E 940 105 90 02 FEB 21 0000 23.1 S 60.1 E 945 85 02 FEB 21 0600 24.0 S 60.6 E 965 75 70 02 FEB 21 1200 25.2 S 61.6 E 968 65 02 FEB 21 1800 26.4 S 62.9 E 975 60 55 JTWC: 26.2 S, 62.1 E 02 FEB 22 0000 25.8 S 61.8 E 990 40 02 FEB 22 0600 25.9 S 62.4 E 995 45 40 02 FEB 22 1200 26.1 S 62.8 E 998 30 Locally 35 kts to south 02 FEB 22 1800 26.4 S 64.0 E 30 Final JTWC warning ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - Longitude 90E to 135E NOTE: The tracking information presented below was obtained from operational warnings issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Perth, Western Australia, and Darwin, Northern Territory. Also, the central pressure estimates and 10-min avg MSW values were obtained from Perth's and Darwin's advices and warnings while the 1-min avg MSW was taken from JTWC's warnings. Systems Tracked --------------- Severe Tropical Cyclone CHRIS (13S) 02 - 06 Feb Tropical LOW 12 - 13 Feb ************************************************************************* Storm Name: CHRIS Cyclone Number: 13S Basin: AUW Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 02 FEB 02 0500 13.0 S 120.6 E 1003 30 02 FEB 02 1400 14.0 S 121.0 E 1001 30 Gales north of center 02 FEB 02 2200 14.8 S 121.3 E 999 30 " 02 FEB 03 0300 15.4 S 121.3 E 990 45 45 02 FEB 03 1000 15.8 S 121.1 E 985 55 02 FEB 03 1600 16.2 S 120.6 E 975 55 60 02 FEB 03 2200 16.4 S 120.6 E 975 60 02 FEB 04 0400 16.9 S 121.0 E 970 65 02 FEB 04 0700 17.3 S 121.0 E 965 65 70 02 FEB 04 1000 17.6 S 120.9 E 955 80 02 FEB 04 1600 17.9 S 120.5 E 955 100 80 02 FEB 04 2200 18.2 S 120.2 E 940 90 02 FEB 05 0500 18.5 S 120.2 E 930 115 100 02 FEB 05 1100 18.9 S 120.3 E 930 100 02 FEB 05 1700 19.6 S 120.2 E 915 125 110 02 FEB 05 2300 20.2 S 120.0 E 935 100 Inland - See Note 02 FEB 06 0400 20.8 S 119.8 E 960 95 75 02 FEB 06 1000 21.6 S 119.5 E 980 50 02 FEB 06 1600 22.4 S 119.2 E 985 45 02 FEB 06 1800 23.4 S 119.4 E 55 Final JTWC warning Note: The 10-min avg MSW values from 05/2300 UTC on were obtained from the peak gusts given in the public advices issued by the Perth TCWC, using a reduction factor of 1.41. ************************************************************************* Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: None Basin: AUW/AUE (System was an overland monsoon depression over the Northern Territory) Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 02 FEB 09 0230 13.7 S 130.0 E 1002 See Note 02 FEB 10 0230 15.0 S 130.5 E 999 02 FEB 11 0230 13.9 S 130.8 E 998 02 FEB 12 0130 12.5 S 133.0 E 1000 30 02 FEB 12 0730 13.1 S 134.1 E 998 30 02 FEB 12 1330 13.3 S 134.8 E 999 30 02 FEB 12 1930 13.5 S 134.5 E 998 30 02 FEB 13 0130 13.0 S 135.0 E 999 30 02 FEB 13 0730 13.5 S 135.5 E 998 30 02 FEB 13 1330 14.0 S 135.2 E 1000 30 02 FEB 13 1930 14.4 S 135.4 E 1000 30 02 FEB 13 2330 15.4 S 135.8 E 1002 25 Note: The first three entries above were taken from Darwin's daily Tropical Weather Outlooks. No maximum wind values were specified. The remainder of the track was taken from Tropical Cyclone Advices issued by the Darwin TCWC. No MSW estimates were given--instead the expected peak gusts were included. For the first two advices, the peak gust estimate was 90 km/hr, which by using the standard overwater gust reduction factor, translates to a 10-min avg MSW of 35 kts. However, gale warnings were not issued in association with this depression, so I reduced those values to 30 kts. From 12/1330 UTC onward, the peak gust estimate was 80 km/hr, or 31 kts 10-min avg MSW. ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - Longitude 135E to 160E NOTE: The tracking information presented below was obtained from operational warnings issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Brisbane, Queensland; Nadi, Fiji; and Wellington, New Zealand. Also, the central pressure estimates and 10-min avg MSW values were obtained from the Southern Hemisphere centres' warnings while the 1-min avg MSW was taken from JTWC's warnings. A special thanks to Steve Ready of the New Zealand Meteorological Service for sending me the Wellington warnings on Claudia as well as an operational post-warning stage track. Systems Tracked --------------- Severe Tropical Cyclone CLAUDIA (14P / 08F) 11 - 15 Feb Tropical LOW 16 - 23 Feb ************************************************************************* Storm Name: CLAUDIA Cyclone Number: 14P Basin: AUE/SPA Fiji Tropical Disturbance Number: 08F Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 02 FEB 11 0400 19.3 S 156.1 E 30 From JTWC TCFA 02 FEB 11 0600 20.4 S 156.8 E 995 35 40 02 FEB 11 1200 22.0 S 157.0 E 995 65 40 02 FEB 11 1800 22.5 S 157.6 E 985 65 50 02 FEB 12 0000 23.3 S 158.4 E 970 70 65 02 FEB 12 0600 24.1 S 160.0 E 970 75 65 02 FEB 12 1200 25.0 S 161.8 E 970 75 65 Fiji warning 02 FEB 12 1800 26.0 S 163.5 E 975 65 60 Entered Wellington AOR 02 FEB 13 0000 26.5 S 165.5 E 980 55 02 FEB 13 0600 26.8 S 167.6 E 984 50 50 JTWC: 27.3 S, 167.7 E 02 FEB 13 1200 27.0 S 169.0 E 986 50 02 FEB 13 1700 27.2 S 172.0 E 994 30 35 JTWC: 27.2 S, 170.8 E 02 FEB 13 2300 27.2 S 172.5 E 999 30 Extratropical 02 FEB 14 0500 27.0 S 176.4 E 998 30 02 FEB 14 1100 27.9 S 179.5 E 1000 30 02 FEB 14 1700 27.7 S 180.0 E 1000 30 02 FEB 14 2300 29.7 S 178.1 W 999 30 02 FEB 15 0500 28.6 S 176.6 W 999 35 02 FEB 15 1100 30.5 S 172.7 W 1000 30 ************************************************************************* Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: None Basin: AUE/AUW (Another primarily overland depression which moved westward) Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 02 FEB 16 0430 16.0 S 140.5 E 1000 02 FEB 17 0430 16.5 S 137.5 E 1000 Moving inland 02 FEB 21 0400 17.0 S 128.0 E 995 See Note 02 FEB 22 0400 17.0 S 128.0 E 996 02 FEB 23 0200 19.5 S 125.5 E 1002 Note: The information on this tropical LOW came from the daily Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by Darwin and Perth. After the LOW moved inland on 17 February, the Darwin Outlooks did not include any more coordinates, but did refer to a weak LOW moving westward. The Outlooks from Perth began mentioning a system on 21 February. I am not totally sure, but I feel very strongly that the Perth system was a continuation of the earlier one. ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E NOTE: The tracking and intensity information for South Pacific Basin tropical cyclones was taken from real-time operational warnings issued by the Nadi TCWC, Fiji for positions north of 25S and from the Wellington, New Zealand office for positions south of 25S. Warnings from JTWC were utilized for the purpose of making comparisons and for supplying information for times when the Nadi or Wellington warnings were unavailable. The 10-min avg MSW values were taken from the Fiji or New Zealand warnings while the 1-min avg MSW values were obtained from the JTWC warnings. Systems Tracked --------------- Tropical Depression (09F) 17 - 18 Feb Tropical Depression (10F / 16P) 23 - 26 Feb Tropical Depression (11F) 26 - 27 Feb ************************************************************************* Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: None Basin: SPA Fiji Tropical Disturbance Number: 09F Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 02 FEB 17 0600 14.0 S 179.0 W 1001 30 02 FEB 17 2100 14.0 S 179.0 W 1000 30 02 FEB 18 0600 18.0 S 179.0 W 998 30 02 FEB 18 2100 21.0 S 176.5 W 997 30 See Note Note: The strongest winds associated with this depression were located well to the north and later east of the center. Nadi's Tropical Disturbance Summary at 18/2100 UTC noted that north to northwest winds of 35 to 40 kts, gusting 50 to 60 kts, were located in a strong convergence zone well to the east of the depression. Separate gale warnings were issued on the 18th and 19th for this area of gales. ************************************************************************* Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: 16P Basin: SPA Fiji Tropical Disturbance Number: 10F Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 02 FEB 23 2100 18.0 S 176.0 E 1005 25 See Note 02 FEB 24 0100 18.6 S 175.1 E 30 From JTWC TCFA 02 FEB 24 1200 20.6 S 175.0 E 30 JTWC warning 02 FEB 24 2100 21.5 S 176.1 E 1000 30 02 FEB 25 0000 22.2 S 175.9 E 35 JTWC warning 02 FEB 25 1200 22.9 S 176.3 E 35 " 02 FEB 25 2100 23.2 S 176.4 E 1002 30 02 FEB 26 0000 23.2 S 176.9 E 30 JTWC warning Note: The Nadi TCWC issued gale warnings on the 24th-26th for a zone of gales displaced well to the east of the center. ************************************************************************* Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: None Basin: SPA Fiji Tropical Disturbance Number: 11F Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 02 FEB 26 2100 16.0 S 166.0 E 1002 15 See Note 02 FEB 27 0600 16.0 S 167.0 E 1002 15 02 FEB 27 1800 16.0 S 167.0 E 1004 15 02 FEB 27 2100 16.0 S 166.0 E 1003 15 Note: The first Tropical Disturbance Summary from Nadi mentioned that a QuikScat pass had revealed winds of 10 to 15 kts around the system's center. No further mention of surface winds was made in subsequent summaries. ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* !!!!!! IMPORTANT NOTE - PLEASE READ !!!!!! It has been brought to my attention that I should repeat in the cyclone tracks file the caveat which is included in the Author's Note at the end of the cyclone summaries. The tropical cyclone tracks which I prepare are based upon the operational warnings/ advisories/advices/bulletins from the various tropical cyclone warning agencies around the world. Users of these tracks should be aware that they are preliminary and subject to revision during post-seasonal analyses of the cyclones by the forecasters and analysts at the several warning centers. For the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific basins, official tropical cyclone reports and "best tracks" can be found at the website of the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center: The Joint Typhoon Warning Center's website contains links to their Annual Tropical Cyclone Reports which include that agency's "best tracks" for tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific basin, the North Indian Ocean, and the Southern Hemisphere: In the near future I shall contact the other tropical warning centers to see if I can locate any links to sites where their "best tracks" might be archived. ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* Published 03.17.02 / Typhoon2000.ph / Typhoon2000.com