GARY PADGETT'S MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY DECEMBER, 2003 (For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see the Author's Note at the end of this summary.) ************************************************************************* DECEMBER HIGHLIGHTS --> Not one, but two, Atlantic tropical storms --> North Indian cyclone destructive to India --> Long-lived Southwest Indian cyclone affects Madagascar --> Northern Australia experiences hurricane strike --> Strong tropical storm brushes Mauritius ************************************************************************* ***** Feature of the Month for December ***** TROPICAL CYCLONE CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA for the SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN A. Introduction --------------- This month's feature is the second of three highlighting tropical cyclone climatological data for the Southern Hemisphere. The source for the data was a set of tropical cyclone tracks sent to me by Mr. Charles Neumann. These had been prepared in association with a hurricane risk analysis (HURISK) study he was performing for the U. S. Navy. Earlier studies had been accomplished for the Atlantic and North Pacific basins. The tracks and intensities were based upon available data sets for the various Southern Hemisphere basins from the regional warning centers, and from 1980 onward, JTWC's Best Track files were utilized as an additional source of data. The data set begins with the 1960-61 Southern Hemisphere cyclone season and extends through 2001-2002, and I have included the entire period. While the annual number of intense tropical cyclones (MSW < 100 kts) increases somewhat around 1970, the numbers of tropical storms and hurricanes during the pre-1970 period are not significantly different than for years following the advent of meteorological satellites. No doubt in pre-satellite years many cyclones were not detected, especially in the vast island-free South Indian Ocean. But in some areas, such as northern Australia, where most storms form near land and affect the coastline, and also in the island-rich South Pacific, it is likely that most significant tropical cyclones were at least detected (even if not tracked accurately) before operational satellite coverage became complete in the late 1960s. B. Definition of Parameters --------------------------- The following definitions apply: NS - a tropical cyclone with a peak 1-min avg MSW >= 34 kts H - a tropical cyclone with a peak 1-min avg MSW >= 64 kts IH - a tropical cyclone with a peak 1-min avg MSW >= 96 kts NSD - four 6-hour periods in which a NS is operating HD - four 6-hour periods in which a H is operating IHD - four 6-hour periods in which an IH is operating NTC - (((Total NS/Avg NS) + (Total H/Avg H) + (Total IH/Avg H) + (Total NSD/Avg NSD) + (Total HD/Avg HD) + (Total IHD/Avg IHD))/6) x 100% I have included another seasonal measure of the overall tropical cyclone level of activity which I developed--the Tropical Cyclone Index (TCI). It is a summation of the MSW for each 6-hourly data point, divided by 100 (kts) with the resultant quotient then squared. Thus, it is identical to Dr. Bill Gray's Hurricane Destruction Potential (HDP) except that I begin the TCI with 34 kts, whereas the HDP calculation begins with 64 kts. It also very similar to the index which NOAA uses in their Atlantic seasonal forecasts--a summation of the square of the velocity--except that I've scaled the TCI to a baseline of 100 kts in order to avoid huge numbers. My reason for including the TCI is that it is independent of the period of data covered. The NTC is a good indicator of overall tropical cyclone activity, but it changes for all years whenever a new baseline period is utilized, whether this is done on a yearly basis or every 5 or 10 years. Thus, for example, 1950's NTC for the 1950-1990 period is not the same as it was for the 1950-2000 period, etc. The TCI correlates very closely with the NTC, however. I calculated correlation coefficients for the NTC vs TCI data sets for several basins, and the two indices always correlated to around 97-98%. Thus, the TCI is an absolute index independent of any average values of the various parameters, yet it correlates well with the NTC as computed by Dr. Gray's rule. C. Southern Hemisphere Basins ----------------------------- Dividing up the Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclogenetical regions is rather problematic. The Northern Hemisphere basins are rather neatly divided geographically by landmasses and regions of very infrequent tropical cyclone formation, but storms form in the Southern Hemisphere in a rather continuous band from the Mozambique Channel off the eastern coast of Africa eastward across the South Indian Ocean, through the seas and gulfs north of Australia, into the Coral Sea and across the South Pacific to the region of French Polynesia well east of the International Dateline. Several different schemes for dividing the Southern Hemisphere into useful basins for statistical purposes have been proposed, but none are completely satisfactory in all respects. For my purposes, I am going to present statistics for various longitudinal regions, some of which overlap. This monthly feature focuses on the South Pacific Ocean. Last month's feature covered the entire Southern Hemisphere and several portions of the South Indian Ocean. The final one, scheduled for the February summary, will focus on the Australian Region. Due to time constraints, I did not calculate the full regime of parameters for the 2002-2003 season, but I did glean the numbers of NS, H and IH for the various areas, and these are summarized following each table. The four regions covered this month are: (1) Southern Hemisphere east of longitude 135E (2) Entire South Pacific east of Australia (3) South Pacific east of longitude 160E (Fiji/New Zealand AOR) (4) Southeast Pacific (east of Dateline) Last month's feature included a table for the Southern Hemisphere west of longitude 135E. Region (1) above is the counterpart of that: the extreme eastern Arafura Sea, the Gulf of Carpentaria, and the South Pacific to the western coast of South America, although essentially no tropical cyclone activity occurs east of longitude 120W. Region (2) is the open South Pacific east of the Australian continent, while Region (3) is the area of warning responsibility of the TCWC at Nadi, Fiji, for cyclones north of latitude 25S, and the Wellington, New Zealand, office for storms south of 25S. As is the case with longitude 90E in the South Indian Ocean, there is no meteorological reason for the 160th meridan being a basin boundary--it is strictly arbitrary. I have included a separate table for the South Pacific east of the 180th meridian (Region 4), even though it is also an arbitrary boundary. However, tropical cyclone activity east of the International Dateline is highly variable from year to year, especially east of 160W. That region only rarely sees tropical cyclones in neutral ENSO or La Nina years, but can become quite active during El Nino events. D. Tables of Tropical Cyclone Data ---------------------------------- The tropical cyclone data in tabular format follows. The various intensity categories are based on a MSW averaged over 1-minute. This results in slightly higher numbers of cyclones than would be obtained utilizing a 10-minute averaging period, as all the Southern Hemisphere TCWCs do. The year listed in the leftmost column is the year in which the season ends; e.g., 1961 represents the 12-month period from 1 July 1960 through 30 June 1961. (1) ENTIRE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE EAST OF 135E Year NS H IH NSD HD IHD NTC TCI --------------------------------------------------------------- 1961 9 1 0 42.75 3.00 .00 35 32 1962 7 1 0 26.50 .75 .00 24 19 1963 18 2 0 62.00 6.00 .00 63 50 1964 11 4 0 69.25 16.00 .00 76 75 1965 10 3 0 33.50 3.25 .00 41 28 1966 3 1 0 21.75 9.75 .00 28 36 1967 8 2 1 39.75 6.00 1.75 62 43 1968 6 3 0 27.25 2.50 .00 32 26 1969 11 2 0 39.25 3.75 .00 42 36 1970 13 3 0 40.00 4.00 .00 49 36 1971 9 1 0 36.50 1.00 .00 31 30 1972 16 11 5 82.00 30.75 9.00 243 135 1973 14 4 1 41.75 8.00 .75 75 47 1974 15 3 0 49.50 6.75 .00 59 45 1975 13 4 2 62.00 17.25 4.75 129 86 1976 12 5 0 50.25 14.50 .00 72 63 1977 15 4 1 40.25 8.25 .75 77 40 1978 11 4 0 57.00 14.00 .00 69 59 1979 12 4 2 65.25 16.50 4.25 125 84 1980 12 4 1 46.25 6.75 .50 71 50 1981 10 4 0 31.00 6.25 .00 48 33 1982 10 6 5 42.25 16.50 3.00 144 66 1983 15 10 5 95.25 40.25 6.00 235 160 1984 10 6 2 34.50 5.50 1.75 88 55 1985 16 7 5 56.25 18.50 5.75 182 91 1986 10 6 0 38.00 11.25 .00 64 46 1987 16 8 2 63.25 13.50 .50 116 72 1988 7 5 2 40.25 10.00 3.00 96 60 1989 14 6 4 64.75 21.75 6.75 179 110 1990 7 5 1 35.25 11.00 3.50 88 51 1991 4 3 2 27.00 10.25 4.25 88 49 1992 15 9 4 77.75 38.50 10.00 238 164 1993 14 8 5 72.00 32.75 9.50 231 139 1994 6 4 4 38.25 21.00 8.75 162 87 1995 6 3 1 20.00 4.50 1.00 49 26 1996 9 3 1 29.50 4.75 1.25 59 32 1997 17 9 3 95.00 30.25 8.00 213 146 1998 21 12 5 103.00 38.00 10.25 279 186 1999 12 3 1 43.00 12.25 1.75 81 59 2000 9 4 1 23.50 5.50 .50 57 27 2001 8 2 0 19.75 5.25 .00 32 25 2002 8 2 1 16.25 4.75 1.00 48 19 Avg. 11.2 4.6 1.6 47.6 12.9 2.6 2002-2003 Season - NS: 13 H: 7 IH: 6 (2) ENTIRE SOUTH PACIFIC (EAST OF AUSTRALIA) Year NS H IH NSD HD IHD NTC TCI --------------------------------------------------------------- 1961 9 1 0 42.00 3.00 .00 38 32 1962 6 1 0 24.25 .75 .00 23 17 1963 17 2 0 60.75 6.00 .00 66 49 1964 10 3 0 57.25 15.25 .00 69 65 1965 9 3 0 25.00 3.25 .00 40 24 1966 2 1 0 21.00 9.75 .00 27 36 1967 7 2 1 34.75 6.00 1.75 63 41 1968 5 3 0 25.25 2.50 .00 32 25 1969 10 2 0 37.50 3.75 .00 43 34 1970 13 3 0 39.75 4.00 .00 53 36 1971 7 0 0 31.00 .00 .00 23 23 1972 16 11 5 77.75 30.75 9.00 255 132 1973 12 3 1 38.25 7.75 .75 72 44 1974 15 3 0 47.00 6.75 .00 62 43 1975 12 4 2 60.75 17.25 4.75 135 85 1976 12 5 0 48.50 14.50 .00 76 62 1977 14 3 0 35.25 6.00 .00 55 30 1978 11 4 0 55.00 14.00 .00 72 58 1979 11 3 2 56.50 15.75 4.25 122 76 1980 10 4 1 40.25 6.75 .50 70 45 1981 10 4 0 29.75 6.25 .00 51 32 1982 7 5 4 38.00 15.00 2.75 128 60 1983 15 10 5 95.25 40.25 6.00 248 160 1984 9 4 1 29.50 3.00 .25 58 41 1985 13 6 4 49.50 15.00 4.00 154 76 1986 10 6 0 38.00 11.25 .00 68 46 1987 13 7 2 55.50 13.25 .50 112 66 1988 7 5 2 40.25 10.00 3.00 101 60 1989 14 6 4 64.75 21.75 6.75 189 110 1990 7 4 1 32.50 10.75 3.50 88 49 1991 4 3 2 27.00 10.25 4.25 92 49 1992 15 9 4 76.00 38.50 10.00 251 162 1993 13 8 5 69.50 32.75 9.50 241 137 1994 6 4 4 37.75 21.00 8.75 170 87 1995 5 3 1 17.75 4.50 1.00 50 24 1996 7 2 1 21.75 4.25 1.25 52 26 1997 16 9 3 92.25 30.25 8.00 223 144 1998 18 12 5 97.25 38.00 10.25 287 181 1999 11 3 1 41.75 12.25 1.75 84 59 2000 9 4 1 22.50 5.50 .50 60 26 2001 5 2 0 16.25 5.25 .00 29 23 2002 7 2 1 15.00 4.75 1.00 49 19 Avg. 10.2 4.3 1.5 44.4 12.6 2.5 2002-2003 Season - NS: 11 H: 7 IH: 6 (3) SOUTH PACFIFIC EAST OF 160E (FIJI/NEW ZEALAND AREA) Year NS H IH NSD HD IHD NTC TCI --------------------------------------------------------------- 1961 8 1 0 29.50 3.00 .00 41 24 1962 6 1 0 22.50 .75 .00 30 16 1963 14 2 0 50.25 5.25 .00 73 40 1964 9 3 0 45.25 12.50 .00 78 52 1965 7 3 0 17.50 3.25 .00 43 18 1966 2 1 0 18.25 9.75 .00 36 33 1967 5 1 0 7.75 .25 .00 19 7 1968 5 3 0 20.00 2.50 .00 39 19 1969 9 2 0 32.50 3.75 .00 51 31 1970 11 2 0 30.00 2.75 .00 52 26 1971 6 0 0 12.50 .00 .00 18 8 1972 11 7 4 36.00 16.75 7.25 226 72 1973 11 3 1 33.25 6.50 .75 86 38 1974 12 2 0 26.25 1.50 .00 49 20 1975 11 4 2 55.50 17.25 4.75 173 80 1976 8 3 0 19.75 4.25 .00 48 21 1977 10 3 0 27.75 6.00 .00 59 26 1978 9 4 0 47.25 14.00 .00 87 53 1979 8 3 1 32.50 6.00 2.25 92 37 1980 9 2 0 25.00 1.00 .00 42 21 1981 9 4 0 22.00 6.25 .00 59 25 1982 6 5 3 23.25 12.00 2.50 134 42 1983 13 9 4 73.00 30.50 3.75 252 118 1984 5 1 0 9.75 .50 .00 20 8 1985 10 5 3 34.75 12.25 3.50 158 58 1986 8 4 0 25.75 7.00 .00 61 29 1987 12 7 2 52.25 13.25 .50 141 64 1988 6 3 2 28.00 9.25 3.00 113 50 1989 13 5 3 52.50 15.75 2.75 173 79 1990 6 2 1 17.00 7.75 3.50 90 34 1991 2 1 1 7.25 3.75 2.25 53 18 1992 13 9 4 61.75 31.75 9.00 296 132 1993 11 7 4 45.00 23.25 7.25 243 98 1994 5 4 3 20.50 10.50 4.00 137 42 1995 4 2 0 8.75 1.00 .00 23 8 1996 4 1 1 13.25 3.75 1.25 51 19 1997 13 8 3 67.25 22.25 6.25 238 102 1998 17 11 5 66.50 30.75 9.00 328 141 1999 10 3 1 36.75 12.25 1.75 105 56 2000 6 4 1 16.00 5.50 .50 67 22 2001 5 2 0 16.25 5.25 .00 37 23 2002 6 2 1 11.00 4.00 1.00 57 16 Avg. 8.5 3.6 1.2 30.9 9.2 1.8 2002-2003 Season - NS: 10 H: 7 IH: 6 (4) SOUTHEAST PACIFIC EAST OF LONGITUDE 180 Year NS H IH NSD HD IHD NTC TCI --------------------------------------------------------------- 1961 3 1 0 11.75 3.00 .00 51 14 1962 3 0 0 6.75 .00 .00 20 4 1963 8 1 0 21.75 4.25 .00 89 21 1964 3 0 0 5.00 .00 .00 18 3 1965 3 2 0 7.25 3.00 .00 55 11 1966 1 1 0 13.50 8.75 .00 72 29 1967 1 0 0 .25 .00 .00 4 0 1968 1 1 0 4.25 .75 .00 23 5 1969 4 1 0 7.50 1.00 .00 40 7 1970 7 2 0 19.50 2.75 .00 86 20 1971 0 0 0 .00 .00 .00 0 0 1972 4 1 0 5.00 .25 .00 33 5 1973 8 0 0 14.75 .00 .00 50 11 1974 6 1 0 8.75 .50 .00 47 6 1975 5 2 1 17.75 6.00 1.75 194 26 1976 3 1 0 7.00 1.75 .00 39 8 1977 7 1 0 12.50 1.50 .00 61 10 1978 5 1 0 29.50 9.25 .00 111 34 1979 3 1 1 8.00 1.00 .50 98 8 1980 6 0 0 8.50 .00 .00 34 6 1981 6 1 0 9.75 1.00 .00 51 8 1982 1 1 1 3.75 2.75 .50 92 8 1983 10 7 3 48.50 22.75 2.50 497 84 1984 1 0 0 2.00 .00 .00 6 1 1985 7 4 0 16.00 3.75 .00 107 19 1986 3 3 0 13.75 5.50 .00 86 18 1987 8 4 1 31.50 8.75 .25 207 42 1988 1 0 0 1.75 .00 .00 6 1 1989 6 2 0 20.50 5.50 .00 96 26 1990 3 2 1 13.50 7.75 3.50 249 30 1991 1 1 1 2.75 1.50 .50 85 6 1992 9 3 2 31.25 12.75 4.50 407 59 1993 7 4 0 15.75 4.25 .00 109 20 1994 1 1 0 1.00 .25 .00 16 1 1995 2 1 0 3.50 .50 .00 25 3 1996 2 0 0 3.00 .00 .00 11 2 1997 7 3 1 28.50 4.75 1.00 196 32 1998 11 7 2 36.00 14.75 4.00 455 69 1999 4 1 0 12.00 3.50 .00 57 15 2000 5 3 1 9.50 4.00 .50 142 15 2001 3 1 0 7.00 1.50 .00 38 8 2002 2 1 1 4.50 3.25 1.00 116 11 Avg. 4.3 1.6 0.4 12.5 3.6 0.5 2002-2003 Season - NS: 6 H: 3 IH: 3 E. Monthly Tropical Cyclone Information --------------------------------------- I did not have the time to attempt to ferret out monthly information regarding tropical cyclone genesis. Patrick Hoareau has already compiled much information on Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones, including monthly tropical cyclone frequencies, and this can be accessed at the following link: I would encourage those interested in detailed statistics of Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones to visit the above website. More infor- mation describing Patrick's work can be found in the monthly feature in the February, 2003, summary. ************************************************************************* ACTIVITY BY BASINS ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico Activity for December: 2 tropical storms Sources of Information ---------------------- Most of the information presented below was obtained from the various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida: discussions, public advisories, forecast/advisories, tropical weather outlooks, special tropical disturbance statements, etc. Some additional information may have been gleaned from the monthly summaries prepared by the hurricane specialists and available on TPC/NHC's website. All references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period unless otherwise noted. Atlantic Tropical Activity for December --------------------------------------- Disturbed weather which had developed in the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the final days of November persisted into the first week of December. The area began to show signs of organization on the 3rd, and early on the 4th was upgraded to Tropical Depression 20. By late after- noon Tropical Storm Odette had been christened, becoming the first named Atlantic tropical cyclone to develop in December in 19 years. The last year to see a December tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin was 1984, when Hurricane Lili evolved out of a subtropical storm in the central Atlantic and briefly threatened the Leeward Islands as it moved south- westward before dissipating. Odette subsequently moved northeastward, crossing the island of Hispaniola before becoming extratropical on the 7th. At the same time a non-tropical LOW in the eastern Atlantic was slowly assuming subtropical characteristics. This LOW was later determined to have developed into a subtropical storm on the 7th, and by the 9th had developed full tropical characteristics and was named Tropical Storm Peter. Peter peaked near hurricane intensity later that day and then weakened quickly as it moved northward into a more hostile environment. The most significant thing about Peter was the fact that it developed at all. Atlantic tropical cyclones in December are about as scarce as hens' teeth; for two to form in one month is extremely rare. The last time on record that this happened was in 1887. Also, the two December storms along with Tropical Storm Ana in April represent the first occasion since 1887 that three tropical storms or hurricanes have formed outside the official 1 June-30 November tropical cyclone season. The last time there were even two out-of-season storms was in 1953, when Tropical Storm Alice formed in the southwestern Caribbean in late May and an unnamed tropical storm was charted northeast of the Leeward Islands in early December. Finally, a gale center in the central Atlantic on 26 and 27 December looked for a time as if it might make an attempt to become Tropical Storm Rose, but it didn't get very far before it sheared off. According to David Roth, OPC ceased to treat is as an occluded cyclone on the 21st, so possibly the system had some very weak subtropical features. David indicated that there'd been one 35-kt ship report with several more of 30 kts. The official storm reports for Odette and Peter are already available online on TPC/NHC's website, so only brief summaries of the cyclones are included here. Links to the official reports are included with each storm's summary. TROPICAL STORM ODETTE (TC-20) 4 - 9 December ----------------------------------------- Tropical Storm Odette was the first Atlantic named storm to form in the month of December since 1984, and was the first December storm on record to develop in the Caribbean Sea. Odette formed in the southwestern Caribbean and moved generally in a northeastward direction, crossing the Dominican Republic early on 7 December. After emerging into the Atlantic the tropical cyclone was soon overtaken by a cold front and lost its tropical characteristics. Press reports indicate that substantial damage was sustained by many farms, crops, electrical lines, roads and bridges. About 35% of the banana crop was destroyed. The dwellings of 859 families were damaged, of which 34 were completely destroyed. Damage was also reported in the capital city of Santo Domingo. An estimated 10,000 persons were adversely affected by Odette. Eight deaths were directly attributed to the storm, and two additional persons died of heart attacks indirectly related to Odette. The official TPC/NHC report on Tropical Storm Odette, authored by James Franklin, can be accessed at the following link: (This brief report written by Gary Padgett) TROPICAL STORM PETER (TC-21) 2 - 11 December ---------------------------------------- During early December a large extratropical LOW moved over the eastern North Atlantic Ocean near 20N, 37W. This LOW gradually acquired persistent deep convection and was classified as Tropical Storm Peter on 9 December. Movement had been biased toward the south towards warmer waters during the previous couple of days, which aided in development. The MSW soon reached 60 kts, and visible satellite images revealed a banding-type eye and several curved bands associated with Peter around midday on 9 December. Based on that evidence, Peter possibly may have been a hurricane but only for a brief period. Thereafter, the storm quickly deteriorated as it moved northward ahead of a frontal system, although it managed to keep its identity until the 11th when it was absorbed into the advancing front. (It should be noted that in post- storm analysis it was decided not to upgrade Peter to hurricane status.) The official TPC/NHC storm report on Tropical Storm Peter, written by Lixion Avila, is available at the following link: (This brief report written by Kevin Boyle) ************************************************************************* NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180 Activity for December: No tropical cyclones ************************************************************************* NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180 Activity for December: 1 tropical depression ** 1 tropical storm ++ ** - classified as a tropical depression by JMA only ++ - classified as a tropical storm by JTWC only Sources of Information ---------------------- Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I normally annotate track coordinates from some of the various Asian warning centers when their center positions differ from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more. All references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period unless otherwise noted. Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the Typhoon 2000 website, normally sends me cyclone tracks based upon warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the Philippines' Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). A very special thanks to Michael for the assistance he so reliably provides. In the title line for each storm I have referenced all the cyclone names/numbers I have available: JTWC's depression number, the JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator, and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their area of warning responsibility. Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for December ------------------------------------------------ The month of December was fairly quiet in Western North Pacific waters. One tropical system required warnings from JTWC and was upgraded to a minimal tropical storm by that agency, but was not named by JMA. Apparently, JTWC was the only warning center to classify it as a tropical storm. A report on Tropical Storm 27W (named Zigzag by PAGASA), written by Kevin Boyle follows--a special thanks to Kevin for writing the report. The only other system to be classified as a tropical depression during December was a weak LOW around mid-month in the South China Sea east of extreme southern Vietnam. Apparently JMA was the only agency to refer to this disturbance as a depression. The LOW remained quasi-stationary on 16-17 December and then weakened. No track was included for this system in the December tropical cyclone tracks file. UPDATE TO THE NOVEMBER SUMMARY ------------------------------ After posting the November summary I discovered some information on the Relief Web's internet site regarding damage caused by Typhoon Lupit on some of the islands in the Federated States of Micronesia. The storm passed fairly near some of the islands and atolls in Yap State, and huge waves and strong winds caused significant damage on three islands, although fortunately there was no loss of life reported. The islands affected most severely were Ulithi Atoll, Woleai Atoll, and Fais Island. On these islands sources of potable water were contaminated by salt water, and severe damage was sustained to most agricultural crops, with taro, breadfruit, banana and coconut being the most important. After the typhoon's passage the islands were in great need of drinking water, food, and tools with which to repair buildings and for use in planting new crops. More information can be found at the following link: TROPICAL STORM (TC-27W / ZIGZAG) 24 - 27 December ------------------------------------- Zigzag: PAGASA name, means to take a meandering path in abrupt side-to-side movements A. Storm Origins ---------------- At 0600 UTC on 21 December an area of disturbed weather developed approximately 140 nm west-southwest of Chuuk Island. Enhanced infrared satellite animations revealed cycling deep convection organising over a possible LLCC. The first STWO issued by JTWC at this time assessed a fair development potential, but little development was noted and the LLCC remained rather difficult to follow over the next few days. The potential for development was lowered to poor at 22/0600 UTC and remained so through the 23rd. It was not raised to fair again until 24/0030 UTC. This was based on an increase in deep convection over a partially- exposed LLCC. A TCFA was released soon after at 24/0230 UTC, followed by the first warning on Tropical Depression 27W at 24/0600 UTC. The partially-exposed LLCC was situated approximately 265 nm north- northwest of Yap at the time of the first warning with a mid-level ridge to the northeast of Tropical Depression 27W guiding the system west- northwestward at 11 kts. At 25/0000 UTC the LLCC was fully-exposed and the nearest deep convection was located 67 nm to the southeast. As the day progressed, however, the tropical depression got its act together as deep convection began to wrap into the LLCC, and the system accordingly began to intensify. The MSW reached 35 kts, resulting in the upgrade to tropical storm status at 25/1200 UTC. This was to be its peak intensity. (JMA never upgraded this system to tropical storm status, hence, no name was assigned from the international list of names.) B. Storm History ---------------- By 0000 UTC 26 December, Tropical Storm 27W was moving slowly west- southwestward at 5 kts, some 445 nm east of Manila, Philippines. The west-southwesterly motion was the result of interaction with the north- east monsoon, and surges in the monsoon flow were to influence the storm for the rest of its short existence. The LLCC once again became exposed and deep convection became rather limited, resulting in a downgrade to tropical depression status at 26/1200 UTC. However, JTWC upped the MSW back to 35 kts again six hours later. Tropical Storm 27W subsequently began to move a little more quickly towards the south-southwest and was located 145 nm north-northeast of Dapa, Philippines, at 0000 UTC on 27 December. Visible satellite imagery revealed a partially-exposed LLCC with deep convection located mostly in the northwest quadrant. Turning southward the system began to weaken: the LLCC was fully-exposed and deep convection began to diminish. In a way, PAGASA's name for the system (Zigzag) was very apt for this tropical cyclone. Tropical Storm 27W/Zigzag continued its suicide run into the central Philippines and was downgraded to a tropical depression at 27/1200 UTC. It then turned southwestward, completing the last part of its zigzag path before dissipating over the central Philippines at 27/1800 UTC, which was the time of the final warning issued by JTWC. C. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ No reports of damage or casualties were received. Tropical Storm 27W/Zigzag made landfall in the central Philippines only a week after heavy rainfall and mudslides had affected the area, resulting in destruction of properties and several casualties. Heavy rains from the cyclone only served to aggravate the problem. (Report written by Kevin Boyle) ************************************************************************* NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea Activity for December: 1 tropical cyclone of storm intensity Sources of Information ---------------------- Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. Occasionally some information may be gleaned from the daily tropical weather outlooks and other bulletins issued by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), which is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for the basin. The reported maximum sustained winds (MSW) are based on a 1-minute averaging period, which is used by all U. S. civilian and military weather services for tropical cyclone warnings. For synoptic observations in the North Indian Ocean region, both 10-minute and 3-minute average winds are employed, but IMD makes no attempt to modify the Dvorak scale for estimating tropical cyclone intensity; hence, a 1-minute average MSW is implied. In the North Indian Ocean basin JTWC usually does not initiate warnings until a system has become well-organized and likely to attain tropical storm status within 48 hours. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC-03B) 12 - 15 December ------------------------------------ A. Storm Origins ---------------- An area of convection associated with a broad low-level circulation developed very deep in the tropics about 400 nm west of northern Sumatra on 10 December. A surface analysis and microwave imagery indicated that multiple LLCCs were embedded within a broad trough which was being enhanced by strong equatorial westerlies and northeasterly monsoon flow to the north. Animated visible imagery indicated cycling and disorganized convection near the trough, while an upper-level analysis indicated the disturbance lay under favorable diffluence but under not-so-favorable vertical shear. At 10/1800 UTC the system was located about 660 nm east-southeast of Colombo, Sri Lanka, with little change in organization noted. The development potential was upgraded to fair at 0600 UTC on the 11th based on improving organization and a weakening of the vertical shear. A TCFA was issued at 1400 UTC on 12 December, relocating the system to a position about 530 nm east-northeast of Colombo. Animated enhanced infrared and microwave imagery revealed that the LLCC had consolidated to the north of the previous position. The overall organization of the system had continued to improve and the MSW was estimated at around 25-30 kts. JTWC issued the first warning on Tropical Cyclone 03B at 12/1800 UTC, placing the center approximately 550 nm east-southeast of Madras, India. Animated water vapor imagery indicated increasing pole- ward outflow, and the initial warning intensity was estimated at 30 kts. TC-03B was tracking northwestward at 7 kts along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge located to the north of the system. B. Storm History ---------------- The system continued tracking slowly in a general northwesterly direction. The LLCC, completely exposed southeast of the deep convection at 0600 UTC on the 13th, had partially moved underneath the convection by 1800 UTC. With CI estimates at 35 kts, JTWC upped the MSW to that value and placed the center of TC-03B about 415 nm east-southeast of Madras. The cyclone was forecast to continue tracking northwestward along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge located to the north- northeast. The system appeared to be slightly stronger on the 14th--the MSW was upped to 45 kts at 0600 UTC. By 1800 UTC the center of TC-03B had reached a position approximately 200 nm east-southeast of Madras. Animated water vapor imagery indicated good radial outflow with an additional poleward outflow channel that was being enhanced by the leading edge of a trough approaching from the west. By 0600 UTC on 15 December the cyclone had accelerated somewhat in its northwesterly trek to 14 kts and was located about 130 nm north- northeast of Madras. Satellite CI estimates ranged from 45 to 65 kts, and JTWC increased the MSW to its peak value of 55 kts. The center of TC-03B made landfall at approximately 15/1430 UTC near False Divi Point, India, and by 1800 UTC was inland and tracking northward at 9 kts. Convection had decreased significantly since landfall and continued weakening was forecast. The 1800 UTC warning was the final one from JTWC. The only observation I've received was sent by Patrick Hoareau. At 1500 UTC, Machilipatnam (16.2N, 81.2E) reported a pressure of 997 mb and northeast winds of 40 kts with moderate rain. C. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ According to press reports, Tropical Cyclone 03B packed quite a wallop when it struck India. Eleven persons were killed, and three fishermen who went to sea before the cyclone hit were missing. The storm triggered heavy rains and flooding, destroying houses in several villages across four coastal districts in Andhra Pradesh State. Many trees were uprooted and the cyclone destroyed many banana fields. There was one report of waves up to 10 metres in height. Television coverage of the storm's aftermath revealed many fairly thick trees and poles snapped in two. This would suggest that TC-03B may have been somewhat stronger than the 55-60 kts reported in the warnings. One press report mentioned winds of hurricane force, but it is unknown if this is estimated or recorded, nor whether it refers to sustained winds or peak gusts. Microwave and scatterometer data suggest that winds could have been in the 75-80 kt range at landfall. (Report written by Gary Padgett) ************************************************************************* SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E Activity for December: 1 severe tropical storm 1 tropical cyclone (hurricane) Sources of Information ---------------------- The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for Southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclones are the warnings issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre on La Reunion Island, part of Meteo France (MFR), and the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre for the basin. However, tropical cyclones in this region are named by the sub-regional warning centres on Mauritius and Madagascar with longitude 55E being the demarcation line between their respective areas of warning responsibility. The La Reunion centre only advises these agencies regarding the intensity of tropical systems. References to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period unless otherwise stated. In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from MFR's coordinates by usually 40-50 nm or more. The JTWC warnings are also the source of the 1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included in the tracks file. Additionally, information describing details of satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings. Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for December ----------------------------------------------------- Two tropical storms formed in the South Indian Ocean west of longitude 90E during December with one reaching minimal cyclone (hurricane) intensity. Tropical Storm Cela crossed the northern tip of Madagascar, weakened over land, and then emerged into the Mozambique Channel where it re-intensified. Cela moved slowly and very erratically southward through the Channel, reaching cyclone strength twice during its long life. Severe Tropical Storm Darius formed farther east and moved on a poleward course which took the center very near Mauritius on 2 January 2004. Reports for both these storms follow. TROPICAL CYCLONE CELA (MFR-03 / TC-03S) 5 - 21 December ----------------------------------------- Cela: contributed by Swaziland A. Storm Origins ---------------- The beginnings of long-lived Tropical Cyclone Cela can be traced to an area of convection which developed on 3 December about 440 nm west- southwest of Diego Garcia. Animated enhanced infrared and microwave imagery revealed cycling and disorganized deep convection associated with a partially-exposed LLCC to the northwest. A 200-mb analysis indicated moderate diffluence over the area with weak vertical shear. By 1800 UTC on the 4th the disturbance had moved westward to a position approximately 490 nm west-southwest of Diego Garcia. The LLCC was no longer exposed, and was becoming better organized with improving poleward outflow. JTWC raised the potential for development to fair at this time. A TCFA was issued by JTWC at 04/2300 UTC, placing the LLCC about 580 nm west-southwest of Diego Garcia. The LLCC had continued to organize, and deep convection had increased and was no longer cyclic. Upper-level conditions remained optimal for further intensification. MFR issued the first bulletin on the system at 0600 UTC on 5 December, upgrading it directly to Tropical Depression 03 with 30-kt winds. The first JTWC warning on TC-03S was issued at 05/1800 UTC, locating the center about 700 nm west-southwest of Diego Garcia and tracking west- southwestward at 4 kts. The MSW (1-min avg) was estimated at 30 kts, and the system was forecast to intensify as the poleward outflow was being enhanced by the approach of a major shortwave trough from the southwest. The depression was being steered by a low to mid-level ridge anchored to the southeast. Intensification of the system was rather slow, possibly hindered by dry air in the western semicircle. The track was initially toward the west-southwest, becoming more westerly on the 7th. At 1800 UTC the system was centered approximately 400 nm north of Mauritius. Convection had been gradually increasing near the center, and a 07/1733 UTC SSM/I pass depicted deep convection over the LLCC. MFR and Mauritius were still treating the system as a tropical depression, but JTWC upped the MSW (1-min avg) to 35 kts at 07/0600 UTC and to 40 kts at 1800 UTC. Satellite CI estimates (1-min avg) were up to 45 kts, and QuikScat data revealed an unflagged 35-kt wind vector. B. Storm History ---------------- Tropical Storm Cela was christened at 0600 UTC on 8 December when the center was located approximately 285 nm east of the northern tip of Madagascar, moving westward at 10 kts. Poleward outflow was good, but deep convection had weakened some during the previous 12 hours. Based on MFR's warnings, Cela reached an initial peak intensity of 45 kts (10-min avg) at 0000 UTC on 9 December before weakening slightly. Convection continued to cycle in intensity up to the time Cela made landfall in extreme northern Madagascar around 1200 UTC on the 9th. The storm's intensity at the time of landfall was around 35-40 kts (per MFR), and by 1800 UTC Cela had been reduced to depression status. Cela quickly crossed over the northern end of Madagascar and by 0600 UTC on the 10th was over water once more approximately 50 nm west of the island. The concurrent JTWC warning indicated that the LLCC was no longer evident in a surface analysis and QuikScat data, so the 0600 UTC warning was intended to be the final one. However, by 1800 UTC deep convection was beginning to regenerate over the old LLCC, so warnings were re-initiated. Cela's center was then estimated to be about 270 nm north-northwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar, moving west-southwestward at 11 kts. The upper-level environment was favorable for further strengthening with good diffluence and weak vertical shear. The MSW (1-min avg) was estimated at 25 kts, but this was bumped to 35 kts at 11/0600 UTC. Interestingly, MFR issued a "final" bulletin on the system at 10/1800 UTC, the same time at which JTWC restarted warnings. However, MFR also resumed issuing bulletins on Cela at 11/1200 UTC. Cela remained quasi-stationary on the 11th. Deep convection continued to slowly increase with both poleward and equatorward outflow evident. The system was forecast to track slowly poleward along the western periphery of a low-level ridge to the east. JTWC upped the MSW (1-min avg) to 40 kts at 11/1800 UTC, based on CI estimates of 30 and 45 kts, but MFR maintained the system at 25 kts through the 13th. Cela continued to remain quasi-stationary roughly 300 nm northwest of Antananarivo all through the 12th and 13th of December while convection cycled in a diurnal fashion. One CI estimate reached 55 kts on the 12th, but this came down on the 13th. MFR's intensity remained locked in at 25 kts through 0000 UTC on 14 December, and JTWC reduced their MSW to 35 kts at 12/1800 UTC where it remained pegged until 1800 UTC on the 15th. At 0000 UTC on 14 December MFR increased the intensity to 30 kts, and at 1200 UTC re-upgraded Cela to tropical storm status. The storm moved slowly south-southwestward in the Mozambique Channel about halfway between Madagascar and Mozambique, although late on the 15th a slight jog to the south-southeast was taken. The intensity remained basically static, as per both MFR and JTWC, but on the 15th Cela began to show signs of intensification. At 15/1200 UTC MFR increased the MSW from 35 kts to 50 kts. A microwave pass indicated a mid-level eye feature with a banding feature wrapping around the southern semicircle. A transient shortwave trough was enhancing the poleward outflow, leading to the intensification of Cela. Satellite CI estimates at 15/0600 UTC were 55 and 65 kts, and a SSM/I 37-GHz image revealed an 18-nm irregular eye. JTWC upped the MSW (1-min avg) to 65 kts at 0600 UTC, and MFR upgraded Cela to a tropical cyclone (hurricane) six hours later. The system retained its eye through the 16th, but by 17/0600 UTC an AMSU pass revealed that the LLCC had become fully-exposed with disorganized deep convection occurring only in the southern quadrants. Both MFR and JTWC lowered the intensity to 55 kts at 17/0600 UTC with the storm located approximately 370 nm west-southwest of Antananarivo, moving west-southwestward at 4 kts. Cela was forecast to slowly decrease in intensity as it tracked southwestward along the northern edge of a transient HIGH located to the south. However, another shortwave trough approaching from the southwest was expected to enhance the poleward outflow once more, leading to another round of intensification. This forecast verified rather well. Cela continued to drift southwestward through 0600 UTC on the 18th, when it became quasi-stationary for around six hours or so at a point about 250 nm west of Tulear on the southwestern coast of Madagascar. Following this halt the storm began a slow but steady east-southeasterly drift in the general direction of the southern tip of Madagascar. MFR upped the intensity to 60 kts at 17/1800 UTC, and to 65 kts for a 24-hour period beginning at 0600 UTC on 18 December. (It is interesting to note that at 18/0600 UTC, CI estimates ranged from 45 to 77 kts.) MFR downgraded Cela to a 60-kt severe tropical storm at 19/0600 UTC, but interestingly, JTWC upgraded the storm to 65 kts for a 24-hour period beginning at 19/1800 UTC--after MFR had downgraded Cela. The southeasterly motion came to a halt at 19/1800 UTC when Cela was centered approximately 175 nm south-southwest of Tulear, or west of the southern tip of Madagascar. Tropical Cyclone Cela's track southward through the Mozambique Channel had been very erratic. A late December tropical storm in the Northwest Pacific basin was dubbed "Zigzag" by PAGASA; indeed, such a moniker would have been very apt for Cela, based on the nature of its track. However, after 19/1800 UTC all the zigzagging ceased. The storm embarked on a definite southerly course, and by 1800 UTC on the 20th was zipping southward at 20 kts. This rapid southward motion, however, brought about the demise of this long-lived and tenacious cyclone as the system moved into an environment of cooler SSTs and increasing vertical shear. By 20/1800 UTC Cela was beginning to undergo extratropical transition and the intensity had fallen to 50 kts (per both MFR and JTWC). The storm was well on its way to becoming fully extratropical at 21/0600 UTC as it continued speeding southeastward into higher latitudes. JTWC issued their final warning on the system at this time, and MFR issued their final bulletin at 1200 UTC, placing the 40-kt extratropical gale about 900 nm east-southeast of Durban, South Africa. C. Casualties and Damage ------------------------ No reports of casualties or damage resulting from Tropical Cyclone Cela have been received. (Report written by Gary Padgett) TROPICAL STORM DARIUS (MFR-04 / TC-06S) 29 December - 4 January ------------------------------------------- Darius: contributed by Mauritius A. Storm Origins ---------------- On 24 December an area of convection was noted approximately 325 nm west of Diego Garcia. The existence of a LLCC was suspected within the near-equatorial trough, and an upper-level analysis indicated weak vertical shear and good divergence aloft. The zone of disturbed weather was very broad, and on the 25th the primary area of interest was relocated much farther to the east to a point approximately 170 nm west-northwest of Diego Garcia. A 25/1248 UTC QuikScat pass indicated cross equatorial flow but no clear evidence of a LLCC. Over the next couple of days there was little change in the system--convection continued to cycle over a possible LLCC within the elongated trough and the upper-level environment remained basically favorable for further development. JTWC issued an interim STWO at 0100 UTC on 28 December upgrading the development potential to fair. Convection had become better organized and a recent microwave image had revealed enhanced curvature of low-level cloud lines associated with the deep convection. The disturbance was estimated to be about 200 nm west-southwest of Diego Garcia, but at 1800 UTC was relocated about 150 nm to the west. A TCFA was issued at 0000 UTC on 29 December, placing the LLCC about 485 nm west-southwest of Diego Garcia. Animated enhanced infrared imagery indicated that the deep convection was becoming better organized around the LLCC. JTWC issued the first warning on TC-06S at 29/0600 UTC, and at the same time MFR initiated bulletins on Tropical Disturbance 04 with both agencies estimating the MSW at 25 kts. The system was then located approximately 500 nm west-southwest of Diego Garcia, moving west-southwestward at 8 kts. An upper-level analysis indicated that the disturbance was operating in an environment of moderate poleward outflow and moderate vertical shear. B. Storm History ---------------- The intensification trend continued and JTWC raised the MSW (1-min avg) to 35 kts at 29/1800 UTC, based on CI estimates of 30, 35 and 45 kts. However, MFR, following the most conservative estimate, main- tained the intensity 25 kts through 30/0000 UTC. TC-06S at the time was tracking southwestward at 8 kts along the northwestern quadrant of a low to mid-level steering ridge located to the southeast. Outflow gradually improved on the 30th and the system responded by slowly strengthening. MFR upgraded the disturbance to tropical depression status (30 kts) at 0600 UTC, and at 1800 UTC Tropical Storm Darius was christened by the Mauritius Meteorological Service. At the time, Darius was centered approximately 375 nm north-northeast of Mauritius, tracking southwestward at 10 kts. Intensity estimates from MFR and JTWC were 40 and 45 kts, respectively. The storm's track became increasingly south-southwestward on 31 December and Darius became more and more of a threat to Mauritius. Microwave imagery around 1800 UTC revealed the formation of a banding eye feature. This prompted JTWC to upgrade the MSW (1-min avg) to 65 kts, but MFR never classified Darius as a tropical cyclone (hurricane). Darius' peak intensity based on MFR's warnings was 55 kts (10-min avg) for a 24-hour period beginning at 0600 UTC on 1 January. New Year's Day, 2004, saw Darius reach its peak intensity and then begin a slow weakening trend. The severe tropical storm's track also became southerly, lessening the threat somewhat to Mauritius. By 01/1800 UTC Darius was located approximately 140 nm north-northeast of the island, moving southward at 7 kts. Satellite CI estimates were 55 and 65 kts, and based on a weakening trend apparent in microwave imagery, JTWC reduced the MSW (1-min avg) to 60 kts. The 2nd of January saw Tropical Storm Darius slide southward by Mauritius, passing the island less than 30 nm to the east--at 1800 UTC the center was located only about 40 nm east-southeast of Mauritius. The storm's intensity as reported by MFR was 50 kts (10-min avg); CI estimates were ranging from 45 to 65 kts at the time. By 1800 UTC on 3 January Darius was tracking south-southeastward at 15 kts from a position about 265 nm south-southeast of Mauritius. Winds were down to 45 kts. Continued slow weakening and transition to an extratropical LOW were forecast as the storm made its way into higher latitudes. Acceleration to the southeast continued on the 4th as animated water vapor imagery depicted weakening deep convection. Both MFR and JTWC declared Darius extratropical at 04/1200 UTC and issued their respective final bulletins. The extratropical gale with 40-kt winds was then located about 600 nm southeast of Reunion Island and racing southeastward at 26 kts. C. Meteorological Observations ------------------------------ Patrick Hoareau has sent me a few observations gleaned from various sources. The center of Darius passed about 43 nm west-northwest of St. Brandon (16.5S, 59.6E) around 0600 UTC on 1 January. The weather station there recorded a peak gust of 66 kts, and 135 mm of rain was recorded during a 24-hour period. The closest approach of the center to Mauritius was about 21 nm at 1800 UTC on the 2nd of January. Radar and microwave data showed very clearly that the southeastern quadrant with the strongest convective bands and strongest winds remained well out at sea. The western edge of the radar eye impinged on the east and southeast coasts of Mauritius near 1700 UTC where some locations reported a lull. Plaisance (the airport and near sea level) on the southeast coast reported a peak gust of 58 kts, and Souillac on the south coast recorded a peak gust of 59 kts. Rainfall amounts were near 100 mm in exposed areas, and these rains were very welcome since the island had experienced a prolonged drought. All in all, Tropical Storm Darius was a positive event for Mauritius, bringing much needed rain with the the most destructive winds remaining over the ocean. (A special thanks to Patrick for sending me the information.) D. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ The author has not received any reports of damage or casualties in Mauritius resulting from Tropical Storm Darius. Given the magnitude of the peak gusts, it is likely that only minor, scattered wind damage would have been experienced. (Report written by Gary Padgett) ************************************************************************* NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E Activity for December: 2 severe tropical cyclones (hurricanes) Sources of Information ---------------------- The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for Northwest Australia/Southeast Indian Ocean tropical cyclones are the warnings and advices issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Perth, Western Australia, and Darwin, Northern Territory. References to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period unless otherwise stated. In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from the Australian centres' coor- dinates by usually 40-50 nm or more. The JTWC warnings are also the source of the 1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included in the tracks file. Additionally, information describing details of satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings. Northwest Australia/Southeast Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for December ------------------------------------------ Two tropical cyclones formed in the Southern Hemisphere between longitudes 135E and 90E during the month of December with both reaching hurricane (severe tropical cyclone by Australian nomenclature) strength. Severe Tropical Cyclone Jana formed early in the month northwest of the Cocos Islands and executed a reverse curvature track around the islands, moving eastward, then southward, and finally westward as it weakened. Around mid-month a tropical LOW formed in the northern Gulf of Carpentaria and moved westward as it slowly intensified. The LOW was named Tropical Cyclone Debbie on the 18th shortly before it crossed the 135th meridian. Debbie subsequently took a south-southwestward track and reached severe tropical cyclone status before moving inland along the northern coastline of Australia's Northern Territory. Reports on both Jana and Debbie follow. The report on Debbie was written by Simon Clarke--a special thanks to Simon for his assistance. SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JANA (TC-04S) 7 - 12 December ------------------------------------------------ A. Storm Origins ---------------- An area of convection developed on 3 December about 350 nm northwest of the Cocos Islands. Animated enhanced infrared imagery indicated cycling and disorganized deep convection over a possible LLCC, and some mid-level turning was also noted. An upper-level analysis indicated moderate diffluence aloft with moderate vertical shear. By the next day the disturbance was centered about 430 nm northwest of the Cocos Islands. Deep convection had decreased, and the LLCC appeared to have opened up somewhat, leaving broad troughing at the surface. The Perth TCWC mentioned the LOW in their Tropical Weather Outlook, giving the system a moderate chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48-72 hours. On the 5th the system was still further west, and animated enhanced infrared imagery indicated that the LLCC being followed was one of several vortices embedded in the monsoon trough. An upper-level analysis indicated weak diffluence aloft associated with mostly linear flow. Vertical shear was still moderate. A STWO issued by JTWC at 1800 UTC on 6 December relocated the system well back to the east to a position approximately 340 nm northwest of the Cocos Islands. (Likely, another of the multiple LLCCs mentioned above had become the dominant center.) The LLCC had consolidated and was becoming better organized. Also, an upper-level analysis indicated improving environmental conditions under the subtropical ridge axis with weaker shear than previously. Perth gave the LOW a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48-72 hours. JTWC issued a TCFA at 06/2300 UTC as convection was rapidly increasing over the well-defined LLCC. The first JTWC warning on TC-04S was issued at 07/0000 UTC, placing the center approximately 300 nm north- northwest of the Cocos Islands. The MSW (1-min avg) was estimated at 35 kts, and the system was tracking eastward at 10 kts. Satellite CI estimates were only 25 kts, but an unflagged QuikScat report of 30 and 40 kts was used as the basis for the warning intensity. The Perth TCWC issued the first gale warning on the LOW at 07/0400 UTC in anticipation of the system becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 12 hours. B. Storm History ---------------- Perth upgraded the LOW to Tropical Cyclone Jana with 40-kt winds at 07/1000 UTC. Jana was then centered approximately 285 nm north-northwest of the Cocos Islands. (At 1200 UTC JTWC upped the 1-min avg MSW to 50 kts.) By 0000 UTC on 8 December satellite imagery revealed that Jana had continued to intensify with tightly-curved banding features and both equatorward and poleward outflow. Perth increased the intensity to 55 kts while JTWC upgraded Jana's winds to 65 kts (1-min avg). The cyclone at 08/0000 UTC was located about 250 nm north of the Cocos Islands and moving south-southeastward at 3 kts. The increasing threat to the islands prompted Perth to issue Tropical Cyclone Advices until the threat had lessened. At 1000 UTC Perth upped Jana's winds to 70 kts, making Jana officially a severe tropical cyclone (i.e., hurricane). The storm was being steered by a mid-level ridge situated to the southeast. Severe Tropical Cyclone Jana reached its peak intensity on the 9th of December. Perth's peak intensity (10-min avg) was 75 kts, and JTWC's peak MSW (1-min avg) was 80 kts. JTWC, however, upped Jana's intensity to 80 kts after Perth had decreased their MSW estimate to 70 kts. By 1200 UTC Jana was located 140 nm east of the Cocos Islands, moving south at 9 kts. Hence, the threat posed by the cyclone to the island group had significantly lessened. Animated water vapor imagery around 0000 UTC on 10 December revealed the first indications of increasing vertical shear and also a decrease in the poleward outflow channel. The cyclone was forecast to continue southward for the next 12 hours and then begin to turn to the southwest as a ridge to the south became the primary steering mechanism. This forecast verified--at 1200 UTC Jana was centered about 180 nm south-southeast of the Cocos Islands and moving southwestward at 8 kts. A 10/0530 UTC TRMM pass had revealed that the LLCC was north of the deep convection due to northerly wind shear. Perth had lowered the MSW to 60 kts at 0400 UTC, but JTWC maintained Jana at 75 kts (1-min avg) based on CI estimates of 65 and 77 kts. By 0000 UTC on the 11th Jana was moving westward well to the south of the Cocos Islands. The MSW estimates from Perth and JTWC were 50 kts and 55 kts, respectively. The system's center had become fully-exposed with the convection sheared about 80 nm to the southeast of the LLCC. Jana was forecast to continue weakening in an unfavorable environment of northerly shear, linear to confluent flow aloft, and marginal SSTs. This forecast verified--by 1200 UTC convection had significantly decreased from 12 hours earlier. Jana by this time had weakened to minimal tropical cyclone intensity, and Perth issued their final gale warning at 11/2200 UTC. JTWC issued their final warning at 12/0000 UTC, downgrading the MSW to 30 kts. The convection-free LLCC was located approximately 225 nm southwest of the Cocos Islands, tracking westward at 7 kts. C. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Severe Tropical Cyclone Jana. (Report written by Gary Padgett) SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE (TC-05P) 17 - 21 December -------------------------------------------------- A. Storm Origins ---------------- Debbie was the first tropical cyclone of the 2003/2004 season to be named by the Northern Territory Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre and the first to make landfall on the Australian mainland for the season. The cyclone originated from the first significant burst of widespread thunderstorm activity associated with the developing monsoon trough to the north of the Australian continent. The Bureau of Meteorology at Darwin first detected a 1005 hPa tropical LOW on 16 December near 10S, 140W, travelling west at 8 kts. At the time, the tropical LOW was being subjected to moderate upper-level wind shear. However, organization continued to improve, and by 17 December banding was evident along with a small central feature persisting against diurnal trends. The first gale warning was issued at 17/0700 UTC for a 30-nm area close to the developing tropical LOW. The tropical LOW continued to improve in structure while steadily intensifying. At approximately 18/2100 UTC (or during the early morning hours of 19 December 2004, Northern Territory time), the 992 hPa tropical low was upgraded to tropical cyclone status and named Debbie. B. Storm History ---------------- At the time of naming, slow-moving Tropical Cyclone Debbie was located about 125 nm north of Elcho Island and 230 nm east-northeast of Cape Don. Under favourable conditions, including high sea surface temperatures (28-30 C), Debbie steadily intensified, commencing a westerly, then southwesterly and finally south-southwesterly track across the Arafura Sea. By 19/1500 UTC, Tropical Cyclone Debbie had attained "severe" Category 3 status as it moved closer to the coast at 5 kts. Debbie crossed the coast at approximately 20/1130 UTC just east of Goulburn Island (11.6S, 133.6E). At this time, Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie had a central pressure of 970 hPa with a MSW (10-min avg) of 65 kts (gusts up to 90 kts) and was moving on a south to south-southwesterly track at 4 kts. Upon crossing the coast, the cyclone slowly but steadily weakened and was downgraded to a rain depression at 21/0000 UTC about 100 km east- southeast of Jabiru. The remnant depression persisted for several days while trekking southwestward across the Northern Territory, passing close to Katherine on 22 December, Timber Creek on 23 December, and finally moving into the Kimberley region of Western Australia on the 24th. C. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ The Bureau of Meteorology provided the following comments on Debbie's impacts: "No observations were available from near the centre of Tropical Cyclone Debbie. However, an aerial inspection of the coast affected by the core of the cyclone between Goulburn Island and Maningrida revealed severe damage to vegetation with 30-40% of trees felled. Fortunately, there are no communities along this part of the coast, apart from a few outstations further inland. No injuries were reported. "About 7 hours of gales and 1 hour of near storm-force winds were recorded at Warruwi Automatic Weather Station, with a maximum wind gust of 66 kts at 18:30 CST on the 20th (20/0900 UTC). The lowest pressure recorded at the same station was 989.9 hPa at 16:13 CST. Structural damage was limited to a few lifted sheets of roofing iron. Trees fell onto power lines, interrupting power and water supplies during the cyclone. "At Maningrida, a brief period of gales with a maximum gust of 44 kts occurred around 21:30 CST on the 20th (20/1200 UTC). A 2-metre swell combined with a storm surge caused minor coastal flooding, and the sea level rose about 0.5 metres above the barge landing. At McCluer Island, west of Goulburn Island and further away from the landfall area, sustained gales were recorded for 8 hours, with a maximum wind gust of 51 kts at around 16:00 CST on the 20th (20/0630 UTC)." As a rain depression, heavy rainfall affected the Arnhem, Darwin-Daly, Katherine and northern Victoria River Districts, resulting in flooding in many catchments throughout the Top End. Many areas north of Katherine reported up to 300 mm of rain during the passage of the cyclone and associated rain depression. The remnant depression then moved westward into the Kimberley region of Western Australia. Falls of more than 50 mm were reported at most Kimberley sites with several locations such as Ord River Dam (230 mm) and Warmun (172 mm) reporting much higher falls in the week to 30 December 2003. One related, but indirect death was reported in the media that could be attributed to Tropical Cyclone Debbie--a crocodile reportedly mauled a man to death in a remote part of the Northern Territory. The authorities in the Northern Territory stated that the heavy rains caused by Debbie allowed the fierce predators to move farther inland. (Report written by Simon Clarke) ************************************************************************* NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E Activity for December: 1 hybrid or monsoon LOW of gale intensity Sources of Information ---------------------- The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for Northeast Australia/Coral Sea tropical cyclones are the warnings and advices issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Brisbane, Queensland, and Darwin, Northern Territory, and on very infrequent occasions, by the centre at Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. References to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period unless otherwise stated. In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from the Australian centres' coor- dinates by usually 40-50 nm or more. The JTWC warnings are also the source of the 1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included in the tracks file. Additionally, information describing details of satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings. Northeast Australia/Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Activity for December -------------------------------------- No tropical cyclones were named in the Gulf of Carpentaria or Coral Sea during December. At the end of the month, an interesting system formed northwest of New Caledonia, actually spending most of its life east of 160E, but since Brisbane issued gale warnings on the LOW, I am covering it here. The Tropical Cyclone Outlook issued by Brisbane on 30 December stated that "a strong upper LOW near New Caledonia is producing a low-pressure system to its northeast. Global computer models indicate the formation of a monsoon LOW in the eastern Coral Sea in the next 24 to 48 hours owing to the upper LOW. Models develop this complex system and move it westwards towards the Queensland coast late in the week. At this stage this system it not expected to form into a classical tropical cyclone--it is expected to be a vigorous LOW with gales removed from the system centre." That pretty much sums up what transpired over the next few days. At 1800 UTC on the 30th a LOW was centered roughly 265 nm north-northwest of Noumea, producing 30-kt winds. The system moved slowly in a westerly direction for the next couple of days, producing winds up to 35 kts. The LOW began to weaken late on 1 January 2004 with Brisbane issuing the final gale warning at 01/2200 UTC, the center being located approximately 400 nm northwest of Noumea. The Nadi TCWC also issued general gale warnings for the areas affected by the system. (NOTE: I did produce a track for this system in the December tropical cyclone tracks file. There was a missing data point indicated for 0600 UTC on 1 January, which I discovered later was due to my having filed the appropriate warning in the wrong folder. The particulars for 01/0600 UTC are: Lat. 18.5S, Lon. 160.5E, CP 996 hPa, and a MSW of 35 kts (10-min avg), all based on the Brisbane warning. I have dispatched a corrected tracks file to the gentlemen who archive the summaries and tracks.) ************************************************************************* SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E Activity for December: 2 tropical depressions Sources of Information ---------------------- The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for South Pacific tropical cyclones are the warnings and advisories issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Nadi, Fiji (for waters north of latitude 25S), and Wellington, New Zealand (for waters south of latitude 25S). References to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period unless otherwise stated. In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from the Southern Hemisphere centres' coordinates by usually 40-50 nm or more. The JTWC warnings are also the source of the 1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included in the tracks file. Additionally, information describing details of satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings. South Pacific Tropical Activity for December -------------------------------------------- No tropical cyclones formed during the month of December in the South Pacific basin east of 160E. A tropical disturbance well to the north- west of Fiji was designated as Tropical Disturbance 01F early in the month, and was referred to as a "weak tropical depression" on the 5th and 6th. The system had weakened by late on the 6th due to strong vertical shear. No track was given for this weak system in the December cyclone tracks file. Tropical Disturbance 03F was first noted on Christmas Day well to the north of Fiji. This system drifted very slowly eastward during the following days and was referred to as a tropical depression on the 28th when it was very near the International Dateline. The depression continued to develop very slowly as it continued drifting eastward, and on 2 January was upgraded to Tropical Cyclone Heta. Heta became a very intense cyclone and devastated the small island nation of Niue. Heta will be covered in the January summary. ************************************************************************* EXTRA FEATURE In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and acronyms. I have tried to define most of these with the first usage in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then. Most of these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a few aren't clear to some. To remedy this I developed a Glossary of Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the July, 1998 summary. I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in order to help keep them from being too long. If anyone would like to receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy to send them a copy. ************************************************************************* AUTHOR'S NOTE: This summary should be considered a very preliminary overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers. The information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning centers will be passed along from time to time. The track files are not being sent via e-mail. They can be retrieved from the archive sites listed below. (Note: I do have a limited e-mail distribution list for the track files. If anyone wishes to receive these via e-mail, please send me a message.) Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files created in DOS editor. Download to disk and use a viewer such as Notepad or DOS editor to view the files. The first summary in this series covered the month of October, 1997. Back issues can be obtained from the following websites (courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Michael Pitt, and Chris Landsea): Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office. Their site contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones globally on a monthly basis. The URL is: TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE JTWC now has available on its website the complete Annual Tropical Cyclone Report (ATCR) for 2002 (2001-2002 season for the Southern Hemisphere). ATCRs for earlier years are available also. The report for the 2002-2003 Southern Hemisphere season has also recently been added. The URL is: Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor" tracking charts for the 2003 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones; also, storm reports for all the 2003 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as well as track charts and reports on storms from earlier years. The URL is: A special thanks to Michael Bath of McLeans Ridges, New South Wales, Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries. PREPARED BY Gary Padgett E-mail: garyp@alaweb.com Phone: 334-222-5327 Kevin Boyle (Eastern Atlantic, Western Northwest Pacific, South China Sea) E-mail: newchapelobservatory@btinternet.com Simon Clarke (Northeast Australia/Coral Sea, South Pacific) E-mail: saclarke@iprimus.com.au ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* >> Published: 03.22.04 Typhoon2000.com / Typhoon2000.ph