GARY PADGETT'S
GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS - DECEMBER 2002
!!!! IMPORTANT -- PLEASE SEE NOTE AT END OF FILE !!!!
SPECIAL NOTE: Back issues of the global tropical cyclone summaries
and monthly cyclone track files can be obtained at the following
websites:
OR
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NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180
Sources of Information
----------------------
The track coordinates and 1-minute average maximum sustained wind
values in general were taken from operational warnings issued by the
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy,
located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. The central pressure and 10-minute
average maximum sustained wind estimates for most systems were obtained
from warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA), which
is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Specialised Meteor-
ological Centre for the basin. In a few instances, information from
warnings issued by other Asian warning centers may have been utilized.
The center position coordinates from JMA and other centers were com-
pared with those from JTWC and annotations made in the Remarks column
when the differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm or more.
Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the
Typhoon 2000 website, sends me cyclone tracks based upon warnings
issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency and the Philippines'
Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration
(PAGASA). Also, Huang Chunliang of Fuzhou City, China, sends me
each month tracks obtained from warnings issued by the National
Meteorological Center of China (NMCC), the Central Weather Bureau
of Taiwan (CWBT) and the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO). A very
special thanks to Michael and Chunliang for the assistance they so
reliably provide.
Systems Tracked
---------------
Super Typhoon PONGSONA (31W / 0226) 02 - 11 Dec
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Storm Name: PONGSONA Cyclone Number: 31W Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: None JMA Tropical Storm Number: 0226
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
02 DEC 02 0600 7.2 N 164.9 E 1004 30 JMA Bulletin
02 DEC 02 1200 8.0 N 163.7 E 1004 30 "
02 DEC 02 1800 7.4 N 163.5 E 1004 25 30 JMA: 8.3 N, 162.4 E
02 DEC 03 0000 8.6 N 163.0 E 1004 35 30
02 DEC 03 0600 9.2 N 162.2 E 1002 35 30
02 DEC 03 1200 9.2 N 161.2 E 1000 40 35
02 DEC 03 1800 9.1 N 160.4 E 994 45 40
02 DEC 04 0000 8.4 N 159.7 E 992 45 40
02 DEC 04 0600 8.4 N 159.3 E 990 50 45
02 DEC 04 1200 8.4 N 158.9 E 990 50 45
02 DEC 04 1800 8.4 N 158.2 E 980 55 55
02 DEC 05 0000 8.5 N 156.5 E 980 60 55 JMA: 8.0 N, 157.3 E
02 DEC 05 0600 8.6 N 155.7 E 980 65 55 JMA: 8.0 N, 156.3 E
02 DEC 05 1200 8.4 N 155.0 E 975 70 60
02 DEC 05 1800 8.8 N 154.0 E 970 70 65
02 DEC 06 0000 8.9 N 152.7 E 970 75 65
02 DEC 06 0600 9.0 N 152.0 E 970 80 65
02 DEC 06 1200 9.3 N 150.9 E 970 85 65
02 DEC 06 1800 9.6 N 150.1 E 965 90 70
02 DEC 07 0000 10.4 N 149.1 E 965 95 70
02 DEC 07 0600 10.9 N 148.1 E 955 100 80
02 DEC 07 1200 11.3 N 147.2 E 955 105 80
02 DEC 07 1800 11.9 N 146.2 E 950 110 80
02 DEC 08 0000 12.6 N 145.7 E 950 120 80
02 DEC 08 0600 13.5 N 145.2 E 950 130 80 Very near NE Guam
02 DEC 08 1200 14.3 N 144.7 E 940 130 90 Just north of Guam
02 DEC 08 1800 15.2 N 144.2 E 940 130 90
02 DEC 09 0000 16.2 N 143.8 E 940 125 90
02 DEC 09 0600 16.9 N 143.7 E 940 125 90
02 DEC 09 1200 18.2 N 143.7 E 940 115 90
02 DEC 09 1800 19.1 N 144.2 E 940 110 90
02 DEC 10 0000 20.5 N 145.8 E 945 110 85
02 DEC 10 0600 22.5 N 147.4 E 945 100 85
02 DEC 10 1200 24.1 N 150.3 E 950 100 85
02 DEC 10 1800 25.6 N 153.0 E 965 90 65
02 DEC 11 0000 27.1 N 156.0 E 980 75 55 JMA: 27.7 N, 157.1 E
02 DEC 11 0600 29.0 N 160.0 E 996 45 XT - JMA Bulletins
02 DEC 11 1200 30.0 N 164.0 E 1004 35
02 DEC 11 1800 32.0 N 169.0 E 1008 35
Note: The estimated 10-min avg MSW values from NMCC follow in the
table below:
Date Time Estimated 10-min avg MSW in kts
(GMT) NMCC
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
02 DEC 03 1200 35
02 DEC 03 1800 35
02 DEC 04 0000 40
02 DEC 04 0600 40
02 DEC 04 1200 45
02 DEC 04 1800 45
02 DEC 05 0000 55
02 DEC 05 0600 55
02 DEC 05 1200 65
02 DEC 05 1800 65
02 DEC 06 0000 70
02 DEC 06 0600 70
02 DEC 06 1200 70
02 DEC 06 1800 80
02 DEC 07 0000 80
02 DEC 07 0600 90
02 DEC 07 1200 90
02 DEC 07 1800 90
02 DEC 08 0000 90
02 DEC 08 0600 90
02 DEC 08 1200 90
02 DEC 08 1800 100
02 DEC 09 0000 100
02 DEC 09 0600 100
02 DEC 09 1200 100
02 DEC 09 1800 100
02 DEC 10 0000 90
02 DEC 10 0600 80
02 DEC 10 1200 80
02 DEC 10 1800 75
02 DEC 11 0000 65
02 DEC 11 0600 55
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NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea
Sources of Information
----------------------
The track coordinates and 1-minute average maximum sustained wind
values in general were taken from operational warnings issued by the
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy,
located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. Occasionally some information may
have been gleaned from the daily tropical weather outlooks and other
bulletins issued by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), which
is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Specialised Meteor-
ological Centre for the basin.
The reported maximum sustained winds are based on a 1-minute
averaging period, which is used by all U. S. civilian and military
weather services for tropical cyclone warnings. For synoptic
observations in the North Indian Ocean region, both 10-minute and
3-minute average winds are employed, but IMD makes no attempt to
modify the Dvorak scale for estimating tropical cyclone intensity;
hence, a 1-minute average MSW is implied.
Systems Tracked
---------------
Tropical Cyclone (05B) 22 - 25 Dec
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Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: 05B Basin: NIO
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
02 DEC 22 2030 3.4 N 80.4 E SAB: T2.5/2.5 (35 kts)
02 DEC 23 0230 4.3 N 80.7 E SAB: T3.0/3.0 (45 kts)
02 DEC 23 0830 4.7 N 80.7 E SAB: T3.0/3.0 (45 kts)
02 DEC 23 1430 5.2 N 80.5 E SAB: T3.5/3.5 (55 kts)
02 DEC 23 1800 4.9 N 81.9 E 35 JTWC Warnings
02 DEC 24 0600 5.7 N 83.1 E 35
02 DEC 24 1800 6.8 N 84.8 E 35
02 DEC 25 0600 7.6 N 85.6 E 35
02 DEC 25 1800 7.9 N 86.7 E 35
Note: Since the system appeared so well-organized prior to the issuance
of warnings by JTWC, and since I was aware of several tropical cyclone
analysts who felt the system was of tropical storm intensity early on
23 December, I have included some satellite fixes from SAB which
certainly classified the system as being quite stronger than did JTWC.
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SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E
Sources of Information
----------------------
The track coordinates as well as the central pressure and 10-minute
average maximum sustained wind estimates were obtained from warnings
issued by Meteo France's Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre on Reunion
Island (MFR), which is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional
Specialised Meteorological Centre for the basin. The 1-minute average
maximum sustained wind estimates were taken from warnings issued by the
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy,
located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. The center position coordinates from
JTWC were compared with those from MFR and annotations made in the
Remarks column when the differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm
or more.
Systems Tracked
---------------
Tropical Cyclone CRYSTAL (MFR-04 / 05S) 22 - 30 Dec
Tropical Depression (MFR-05 / 07S) 25 Dec - 04 Jan
Tropical Storm DELFINA (MFR-06 / 08S) 30 Dec - 01 Jan
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Storm Name: CRYSTAL Cyclone Number: 05S Basin: SWI
MFR Tropical Disturbance Number: 04
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
02 DEC 22 1200 8.2 S 68.3 E 1004 25 Locally 30 kts to south
02 DEC 22 1800 8.7 S 68.7 E 1002 25 "
02 DEC 23 0600 10.2 S 66.9 E 996 30 Locally 35 kts to south
02 DEC 23 1200 11.2 S 66.6 E 994 35 35
02 DEC 23 1800 12.1 S 65.8 E 992 40
02 DEC 24 0000 12.4 S 64.9 E 987 45 45
02 DEC 24 0600 12.6 S 64.3 E 985 50
02 DEC 24 1200 13.9 S 62.7 E 982 55 50 JTWC: 13.5 S, 63.2 E
02 DEC 24 1800 14.3 S 62.8 E 978 50
02 DEC 25 0000 14.6 S 61.8 E 970 65 65
02 DEC 25 0600 15.0 S 61.8 E 970 65
02 DEC 25 1200 15.7 S 61.5 E 972 75 60
02 DEC 25 1800 16.4 S 60.7 E 972 60
02 DEC 26 0000 16.8 S 60.1 E 972 70 60
02 DEC 26 0600 17.3 S 60.1 E 972 60
02 DEC 26 1200 18.5 S 59.8 E 972 70 60
02 DEC 26 1800 19.1 S 59.5 E 966 65
02 DEC 27 0000 19.8 S 59.3 E 965 90 70
02 DEC 27 0600 20.7 S 59.5 E 956 75
02 DEC 27 1200 21.6 S 59.9 E 956 80 75
02 DEC 27 1800 22.4 S 60.3 E 958 75
02 DEC 28 0000 23.1 S 60.7 E 962 80 70 JTWC: 23.3 S, 61.2 E
02 DEC 28 0600 24.1 S 60.4 E 975 60
02 DEC 28 1200 25.2 S 61.1 E 976 70 55
02 DEC 28 1800 26.2 S 62.2 E 978 55
02 DEC 29 0000 26.8 S 62.7 E 984 40 50
02 DEC 29 0600 27.1 S 63.1 E 984 50
02 DEC 29 1200 27.7 S 64.4 E 990 40
02 DEC 29 1800 28.0 S 66.1 E 990 40 Extratropical
02 DEC 30 0000 28.7 S 67.7 E 995 40
02 DEC 30 0600 29.3 S 69.5 E 998 35
02 DEC 30 1200 30.6 S 71.7 E 1000 30 Locally 30 kts to east
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Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: 07S Basin: SWI/AUW
MFR Tropical Disturbance Number: 05
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
02 DEC 25 0400 3.0 S 88.0 E 1005 STWO from Perth TCWC
02 DEC 25 1800 5.1 S 87.6 E 999 25 Locally 30 kts to south
02 DEC 26 0000 6.6 S 87.3 E 998 30
02 DEC 26 0600 7.7 S 88.5 E 998 30
02 DEC 26 1200 8.1 S 88.7 E 998 30
02 DEC 26 1800 8.6 S 88.9 E 998 30 30
02 DEC 27 0000 9.5 S 89.1 E 996 30
02 DEC 27 0600 9.5 S 89.7 E 996 30 30
02 DEC 27 1200 9.1 S 90.2 E 998 30 Final MFR Warning
02 DEC 27 1800 9.1 S 90.8 E 30 JTWC Warning
02 DEC 28 0400 9.2 S 91.5 E 998 STWO from Perth TCWC
02 DEC 28 0600 9.4 S 93.1 E 30 JTWC Warning
02 DEC 28 1800 10.1 S 93.7 E 30 Final JTWC Warning
02 DEC 29 0400 9.7 S 94.1 E 998 STWOs from Perth TCWC
02 DEC 30 0400 10.0 S 93.0 E 1000
02 DEC 31 0400 10.0 S 92.0 E 1000
03 JAN 01 0400 10.0 S 91.0 E 1000
03 JAN 02 0400 8.0 S 91.0 E 1002
03 JAN 03 0400 10.0 S 92.0 E 1002
03 JAN 04 0400 11.0 S 91.0 E 1006
Note: No MSW estimates were given in the STWOs from Perth and I have not
attempted to supply any.
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Storm Name: DELFINA Cyclone Number: 08S Basin: SWI
MFR Tropical Disturbance Number: 06
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
02 DEC 30 1200 16.0 S 43.0 E 1007 25
02 DEC 30 1800 16.2 S 42.2 E 1004 35 25
02 DEC 31 0000 16.3 S 41.0 E 1000 25
02 DEC 31 0600 16.2 S 41.5 E 998 35 30
02 DEC 31 1200 16.2 S 41.2 E 992 40
02 DEC 31 1800 15.9 S 40.2 E 984 55 50
03 JAN 01 0000 16.0 S 39.6 E 985 45 Inland in Mozambique
03 JAN 01 0600 15.8 S 39.1 E 45 Final JTWC Warning
Note: The remnants of Delfina remained over land in East Africa for a
few days, then drifted back out over the Mozambique Channel where some
modest re-intensification took place. No warnings on Delfina's second
incarnation were issued by JTWC, but MFR issued warnings on the system
as Tropical Disturbance 07, even though it was acknowledged that the
disturbance was most likely a redevelopment of Delfina. For this reason
I am treating the system separately and the track will be contained in
the tracks file for January.
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SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E
Sources of Information
----------------------
The track coordinates as well as the central pressure and 10-minute
average maximum sustained wind estimates were obtained from warnings
issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Nadi, Fiji, and
Wellington, New Zealand. The 1-minute average maximum sustained wind
estimates were taken from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor,
Hawaii. The center position coordinates from JTWC were compared with
those from the Southern Hemisphere centres and annotations made in the
Remarks column when the differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm
or more.
Systems Tracked
---------------
Tropical Cyclone YOLANDE (02F / 04P) 29 Nov - 06 Dec
Tropical Depression (03F) 10-15 & 19-20 Dec
Tropical Cyclone ZOE (04F / 06P) 23 Dec - 01 Jan
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Storm Name: YOLANDE Cyclone Number: 04P Basin: SPA
Fiji Tropical Disturbance Number: 02F
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
02 NOV 29 2100 11.5 S 178.0 E 999 25 See Note
02 NOV 30 0600 10.0 S 179.0 E 1000 25
02 NOV 30 2100 11.0 S 180.0 E 1002 25
02 DEC 01 0830 13.0 S 178.5 W 1000 25
02 DEC 01 2100 14.0 S 178.0 W 1001 25
02 DEC 02 0600 15.6 S 178.2 W 1002 25
02 DEC 02 1800 16.0 S 177.0 W 1002 25
02 DEC 03 0600 15.7 S 177.9 W 1002 25
02 DEC 03 1800 17.0 S 179.0 W 1000 25
02 DEC 03 2100 16.0 S 178.0 W 1000 30 Relocated
02 DEC 04 0000 16.8 S 177.9 W 1000 30
02 DEC 04 0600 17.9 S 177.0 W 1000 30
02 DEC 04 1200 19.3 S 176.5 W 998 30
02 DEC 04 1800 20.0 S 175.0 W 998 40 30 JTWC: 20.0 S, 174.5 W
02 DEC 04 2300 20.4 S 174.7 W 995 35 Named
02 DEC 05 0000 21.4 S 173.5 W 995 35
02 DEC 05 0600 21.0 S 173.2 W 995 35 35
02 DEC 05 1200 21.8 S 172.2 W 996 30 Becoming extratropical
02 DEC 05 1800 22.8 S 171.2 W 996 30 Some peripheral gales
02 DEC 06 0000 23.2 S 169.3 W 996 30 "
02 DEC 06 0600 24.0 S 168.6 W 996 30 "
Note: The Tropical Disturbance Summaries from Nadi did not mention any
MSW estimate prior to 03/1800 UTC, but considering the reported central
pressures, 25 kts seems to be a good estimate.
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Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: None Basin: SPA
Fiji Tropical Disturbance Number: 03F
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
02 DEC 10 2100 13.0 S 165.0 W 1003 25
02 DEC 11 0600 14.0 S 164.0 W 1003 30
02 DEC 11 2100 13.9 S 162.8 W 1004 30
02 DEC 12 0600 14.5 S 163.3 W 1002 30
02 DEC 12 2100 14.0 S 165.0 W 1002 30
02 DEC 13 2100 16.0 S 171.0 W 1002 25
02 DEC 14 2100 16.0 S 176.0 W 1006 20 MSW estimated
02 DEC 15 0600 17.0 S 178.0 W 1007 20 "
02 DEC 19 2100 16.0 S 173.0 E 1008 15
02 DEC 20 0600 15.0 S 174.0 E 1005 15
Note: No warnings were issued on this depression by JTWC. The Tropical
Disturbance Summaries from Nadi dropped the system after 15 December,
but briefly mentioned it again on the 19th and 20th.
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Storm Name: ZOE Cyclone Number: 06P Basin: SPA
Fiji Tropical Disturbance Number: 04F
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
02 DEC 23 2100 8.0 S 176.0 W 1007 25
02 DEC 24 2100 9.0 S 180.0 W 1007 25
02 DEC 25 0900 10.7 S 178.3 E 1003 25
02 DEC 25 1200 11.0 S 177.7 E 35 JTWC Warning
02 DEC 25 1800 11.3 S 177.3 E 996 30
02 DEC 25 2100 10.8 S 175.5 E 995 35 Relocated and named
02 DEC 26 0000 10.8 S 175.0 E 990 55 45
02 DEC 26 0600 10.8 S 174.7 E 980 55
02 DEC 26 1200 10.7 S 174.1 E 975 75 60 JTWC: 10.8 S, 173.7 E
02 DEC 26 1800 10.9 S 173.2 E 970 60
02 DEC 27 0000 11.3 S 172.5 E 960 95 75
02 DEC 27 0600 11.5 S 171.5 E 920 110
02 DEC 27 1200 11.6 S 170.6 E 910 155 120
02 DEC 27 1800 11.8 S 170.2 E 900 125
02 DEC 28 0000 12.3 S 169.8 E 900 155 125
02 DEC 28 0600 12.5 S 169.5 E 890 130
02 DEC 28 1200 12.5 S 169.2 E 900 145 125
02 DEC 28 1800 12.5 S 169.3 E 900 125
02 DEC 29 0000 12.7 S 169.5 E 915 120 115
02 DEC 29 0600 13.0 S 169.9 E 920 110
02 DEC 29 1200 13.5 S 170.4 E 925 100 100
02 DEC 29 1800 13.9 S 171.0 E 930 95
02 DEC 30 0000 14.2 S 171.7 E 935 95 90
02 DEC 30 0600 15.0 S 172.1 E 950 80
02 DEC 30 1200 15.3 S 172.5 E 965 75 70 JTWC: 15.9 S, 173.2 E
02 DEC 30 1800 16.5 S 173.3 E 975 60
02 DEC 31 0000 16.5 S 173.5 E 980 55 55
02 DEC 31 0600 17.8 S 173.6 E 985 50
02 DEC 31 1200 18.3 S 174.0 E 987 55 45
02 DEC 31 1800 19.5 S 174.8 E 990 40
03 JAN 01 0000 20.2 S 175.0 E 997 45 30
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!!!!!! IMPORTANT NOTE - PLEASE READ !!!!!!
It has been brought to my attention that I should repeat in the
cyclone tracks file the caveat which is included in the Author's
Note at the end of the cyclone summaries. The tropical cyclone
tracks which I prepare are based upon the operational warnings/
advisories/advices/bulletins from the various tropical cyclone
warning agencies around the world. Users of these tracks should
be aware that they are preliminary and subject to revision during
post-seasonal analyses of the cyclones by the forecasters and
analysts at the several warning centers.
For the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific basins, official tropical
cyclone reports and "best tracks" can be found at the website of
the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center:
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center's website contains links to their
Annual Tropical Cyclone Reports which include that agency's "best
tracks" for tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific basin, the
North Indian Ocean, and the Southern Hemisphere:
In the near future I shall contact the other tropical warning
centers to see if I can locate any links to sites where their "best
tracks" might be archived.
PREPARED BY:
Gary Padgett garyp@alaweb.com
SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTIONS BY:
Michael V. Padua michaelpadua@hotmail.com
webmaster@typhoon2000.ph
Huang Chunliang huangchunliang@hotmail.com
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Published: 01.17.03 / Typhoon2000.ph, Typhoon2000.com