MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY FEBRUARY, 2000 (For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see the Author's Note at the end of this summary.) *********************************************************************** SPECIAL NOTE by AUTHOR Since August, 1999, most of the Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summaries have been initially issued in two or three installments in the interest of getting information out as quickly as possible. However, after the final installment has been disseminated, I put together all the sections into one complete summary and send this to the several persons who archive the summaries. For those persons who wish to archive their own copy of the summaries for future reference, I would advise downloading the completed version from one of the web- sites referenced at the end of each summary. I occasionally make some corrections or revisions after the initial installments have been mailed out, and in one case, I received some additional information which was incorportated into the final version. *********************************************************************** FEBRUARY HIGHLIGHTS --> Extremely long-lived and far-traveled Indian Ocean cyclone wreaks havoc in Madagascar and Mozambique --> Rapidly forming cyclone strikes Cairns, Queensland--regenerates in Gulf of Carpentaria *********************************************************************** ACTIVITY BY BASINS ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico Activity for February: No tropical cyclones *********************************************************************** NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180 Activity for February: No tropical cyclones *********************************************************************** NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180 Activity for February: No tropical cyclones *********************************************************************** NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea Activity for February: No tropical cyclones *********************************************************************** SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN (SIO) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E Activity for February: 2 moderate tropical storms ** 2 severe tropical storms ++ 1 intense tropical cyclone (hurricane) ** - This based upon official classification from RSMC La Reunion. Based upon JTWC warnings Tropical Storm Gloria briefly reached minimal hurricane (cyclone) intensity. ++ - This total includes Tropical Storm Connie, which on 1 Feb was still technically at severe tropical storm intensity, but was rapidly weakening and by 2 Feb had weakened significantly and was becoming extratropical. The primary sources of information upon which the narrative is based are the warnings issued by the TCWC on La Reunion Island, associated with Meteo France, and which is the RSMC for the South Indian Ocean basin. However, cyclones in this region are named by the sub-regional centres on Mauritius and Madagascar with longitude 55E as the dividing line between their respective areas. La Reunion only advises these centres regarding the intensity of tropical systems. References to sustained winds should be understood as meaning a 10-min averaging period unless otherwise stated. In the accompanying tracks file some position comparisons have been made with JTWC's positions, and warnings from JTWC were used as a source of 1-min avg MSW estimates. Also, the comments about satellite imagery and other sources of data such as SSM/I and TRMM were obtained for the most part from the JTWC warnings. South Indian Ocean Activity for February ---------------------------------------- The month of February was quite active in the South Indian Ocean west of longitude 90E. As indicated in the note above, former Tropical Cyclone Connie was still active as the month began, but rapidly disappeared from the scene. Short-lived Tropical Storm Damienne was named on 1 Feb, but weakened rapidly on 2 Feb and dissipated later that day. Felicia formed after mid-month out in the central South Indian Ocean and reached severe tropical storm intensity, but ultimately moved uneventfully to higher latitudes and weakened. At the end of the month Tropical Storm Gloria formed just east of the northern tip of Madagascar and made landfall there on 1 March. (JTWC briefly classified Gloria as a cyclone (i.e., hurricane) when an eye became visible along the coast as the storm made landfall.) Also, an area of disturbed weather was becoming better organized out in mid-ocean as February ended and became a tropical depression during the first few days of March. This system will be covered in the March summary. All this being said, the main tropical event of February was major Tropical Cyclone Eline (formerly known as Leon in the Australian Region). Leon had reached hurricane intensity on 6 Feb while well off the coast of Western Australia, but had weakened to near minimal cyclone (tropical storm) strength by the time it crossed 90E into the Southwest Indian basin and was renamed Eline by Mauritius. The storm almost dissipated, but managed to hang on and eventually traveled across the entire southern Indian Ocean to make landfall in both Madagascar and in Mozambique. Not only that, the cyclone underwent remarkably rapid intensification shortly before each of the two landfalls. The torrential rains of Tropical Cyclone Eline served to exacerbate the already-severe and massive flooding taking place in Mozambique. Tropical Storm Damienne (TC-10S / SIO #5) 31 January - 2 February ------------------------------------------ An area of convection was mentioned in a STWO by JTWC at 0000 UTC on 27 Jan southeast of Diego Garcia near 9S, 79E. A broad LLCC was present but the convection was disorganized. Over the next few days the disturbed area drifted westward, exhibiting persistent but still disorganized convection. Moderate vertical shear was present over the region and prevented the disturbance from intensifying rapidly. The system remained quasi-stationary for several days roughly 300 nm southeast of Diego Garcia. By 31 Jan animated infrared satellite imagery indicated that convection was beginning to organize around the LLCC somewhat, and JTWC upgraded the potential for development to Fair. MFR initiated bulletins on the system at 31/0600 UTC, designating it as disturbance #5. MSW were estimated at 25 kts with local winds to 30 kts possible in some areas. The LLCC was rather broad with the primary convection developing southwest of the center. The disturbance was upgraded directly to Tropical Storm Damienne at 0000 UTC on 1 Feb when it was located about 425 nm southeast of Diego Garcia. JTWC had not initiated warnings at this juncture but a Formation Alert was issued at 01/0130 UTC. SSM/I data indicated a developing convective band west of the LLCC beginning to wrap around the northeast quadrant of the system. 200-mb analysis showed an upper- level ridge extending over Damienne. The MFR warning at 0600 UTC increased the MSW to 40 kts and relocated Damienne's center about 115 nm east of the previous warning position. During the day Damienne moved steadily almost due south. JTWC issued the first warning at 1800 UTC when the storm was about 575 nm southeast of Diego Garcia. JTWC's initial MSW estimate (1-min avg) was 45 kts, which compares well with MFR's 10-min avg wind of 40 kts. The initial JTWC warning forecast Damienne to strengthen to cyclone (hurricane) intensity but this failed to materialize. A SSM/I pass at 02/0025 UTC showed the deep convection to be sheared about 130 nm southeast of the LLCC. The warning from La Reunion at 02/0600 UTC relocated the center about 100 nm northwest of the 0000 UTC position and downgraded Damienne to a tropical depression. The concurrent JTWC warning lowered the MSW to 40 kts and indicated that Damienne was tracking slowly southwestward at 7 kts. It was thought that a mid- level HIGH positioned to the southeast of the storm would build north- eastward over Cocos Island and steer Damienne into a more favorable environment for strengthening, but the storm continued to track southwestward and weaken. MFR issued the last bulletin at 02/1200 UTC and JTWC issued their last at 1800 UTC. A SSM/I pass showed minimal convection associated with the system and that was sheared well to the south of the LLCC. A scatterometer pass indicated winds of only 10 kts near the LLCC, and CIMSS charts indicated that strong vertical shear continued over the system. The final JTWC position was about 630 nm south-southeast of Diego Garcia. Tropical Cyclone Leon-Eline (TC-11S / SIO #6) 3 - 23 February ---------------------------------------------- Tropical Cyclone Leon-Eline was certainly one of the longest-lived and farthest-traveled cyclones on record in the Southern Hemisphere. From its inception south of Java on 3 Feb til its final dissipation over Zimbabwe on 23 Feb, this great tropical cyclone's track spanned 80 degrees of longitude--almost one-quarter of the way around the globe! The storm was not only noteworthy for its longevity and track--it also made destructive landfalls in two countries after having, in both instances, underwent very rapid intensification. (This portion of the summary will cover the second part of the cyclone's lifespan in the Southwest Indian basin--the first portion of the storm's history as Leon east of 90E is detailed in the section of this summary covering the Australian Region.) Tropical Cyclone Leon reached an initial peak intensity of 70 kts while in the Australian Region on 6 Feb, but had weakened considerably by the time it crossed 90E into the Southwest Indian region. An upper- level ridge axis to the north was creating shear over the system, resulting in a fully-exposed LLCC with all the significant convection sheared to the south. Both Perth and JTWC were estimating the MSW at 40 kts as Leon exited the Perth AOR; however, JTWC did call for the storm to move back into a more favorable environment after 48-72 hours. Leon entered the Mauritius/La Reunion AOR around 1500 UTC on 8 Feb at a point approximately 500 nm west-southwest of Cocos Island, and, in accordance with long-standing practice, was renamed Eline by the Mauritius Meteorological Service. Over the next several days Tropical Storm Eline moved generally westward across the wide expanse of the South Indian Ocean. On the 9th some convection tried to re-establish itself around the tightly- wrapped LLCC, and MFR and JTWC increased the MSW estimates to 45 kts at 0600 UTC. However, JTWC soon decreased their MSW (1-min) to 40 kts and to 35 kts by 1200 UTC on 10 Feb, but MFR increased the 10-min avg intensity to 50 kts (severe tropical storm level) from 09/1800 UTC through 10/1800 UTC before downgrading Eline back to a moderate tropical storm (MSW < 48 kts). Vertical shear associated with an upper-level ridge axis to the south of Eline inhibited further intensification but the storm was able to hold its own. The "low point" in Eline's life seemed to come around 1200 UTC on 11 Feb when MFR's and JTWC's MSW estimates were 35 and 30 kts, respectively. The center of the weak tropical storm was located roughly 600 nm south of Diego Garcia about this time. By 12 Feb the vertical shear which had been inhibiting Eline's further development had decreased somewhat and convection began consolidating around the LLCC. Winds were up to 45 kts by late on the 12th and further increased to 50 kts on the 13th as Eline had become positioned under a 200-mb ridge axis. Ever since around 0000 UTC on 10 Feb the storm had been moving on a course ever so slightly north of due west, and at 0600 UTC on 13 Feb had reached a position about 220 nm north of Rodrigues Island. Soon after this, however, Eline turned to a west-southwesterly course and began to steadily intensify. JTWC upped the MSW (1-min) to 70 kts at 14/0000 UTC, and MFR had increased their 10-min avg estimate to 60 kts by 0600 UTC when the storm was centered only about 50 nm south-southeast of St. Brandon. A TRMM pass at 13/2101 UTC revealed an eye 12 nm in diameter with good outflow in all quadrants. Later on the 14th the intensification process reached a plateau as a mid- to upper-level trough southwest of the system weakened the mid-level subtropical ridge and enhanced west- northwesterly flow over Eline, causing the convection to be sheared somewhat to the south. MFR brought down the intensity to 55 kts at 1800 UTC and JTWC decreased their MSW estimate to 65 kts at 15/1200 UTC. Severe Tropical Storm Eline continued on a west-southwesterly course during this time, passing about 125 nm north of Mauritius around 1800 UTC on 14 Feb and about 140 nm north of Reunion around 1200 UTC on the 15th. On Mauritius a peak gust of 71 kts was recorded at Ft. William with attendant heavy rainfall which officially ended the drought. The average rainfall over the island during the period 12-16 Feb was 228 mm with a maximum of 405 mm (exact location unknown). A 24-hour total of 182 mm was also recorded on 16-17 Feb. (A special thanks to Arvind Mungur of London for passing along this information to me.) As the 15th progressed deep convection began to recover abit and then held steady. MFR estimated the MSW (10-min) at 60 kts once more at 1800 UTC, and then upgraded Eline to a tropical cyclone (hurricane) with 65-kt winds at 0600 UTC on 16 Feb. JTWC maintained the storm at 65 kts through the 16th as animated satellite imagery depicted a partially-exposed LLCC with persistent deep convection. Water vapor imagery showed some dry air entraining into the southeast quadrant, and CIMSS charts indicated that Eline was still under some weak vertical shearing. The cyclone turned to more of a westerly course on the 16th and began to approach the east coast of Madagascar on the 17th. By 1200 UTC the center was within 30 nm of the coast, and landfall occurred near Mahanoro around 1500 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Eline underwent a very significant intensification in the 24 hours prior to landfall. MFR seemed to pick up on this trend a little sooner than did JTWC with the 10-min avg winds up to 70 kts at 0000 UTC and to 75 kts at 0600 UTC while JTWC maintained a 65-kt MSW (1-min avg). However, at 1200 UTC both centers reported 80 kts. The 1200 UTC warning from JTWC contained the statement that a peak intensity of 85 kts had likely occurred at 0600 UTC, but the subsequent warning at 18/0000 UTC indicated that a peak intensity of 90 kts (1-min avg) had occurred near the time of landfall (around 1500 UTC). Philippe Caroff, the Chief Forecaster at RSMC La Reunion, expressed the opinion that Eline possibly reached a maximum 10-min avg windspeed of 95 kts, or MSW (1-min) of 110 kts, about the time of landfall. Eline predictably weakened significantly while crossing over the large, mountainous island of Madagascar, its winds dropping to around 30 kts. Even though over land, the system retained good outflow aloft in all quadrants. The depression moved out over the Mozambique Channel on the 19th and began to slowly regain strength with the primary band of convection to the north of the LLCC. By late on 19 Feb Eline had regained tropical storm intensity with the MSW up to 45 kts. On 20 Feb the storm continued to strengthen and reached the severe tropical storm category with winds increasing to 55 kts. Eline was located just south of an upper-level ridge axis and still maintained good outflow aloft. A 19/2007 UTC TRMM pass showed well- defined low-level cloud lines north of the LLCC with deep convection confined to the southern and eastern quadrants. The storm was experiencing some shear, but by 1200 UTC deep, persistent convection was once again located over the LLCC. Eline had initially trekked southwestward after exiting Madagascar, but around 20/1200 UTC turned to a westward track once more. The storm was centered roughly 300 nm east-southeast of Beira, Mozambique, at this point. MFR upped the MSW to 60 kts at 21/0000 UTC (JTWC's 1-min MSW was 65 kts) and to 65 kts (cyclone intensity) by 1200 UTC. JTWC's MSW estimate then was 70 kts, so this was good agreement between the two. CIMSS charts showed an improved environment for further strengthening with an upper-level trough to the southeast enhancing outflow. On 21 Feb Tropical Cyclone Eline turned to the northwest and its forward motion slowed considerably (to 3 kts) as it approached the Mozambique coast. At 22/0000 UTC the cyclone displayed a 32-nm wide eye. Microwave imagery depicted concentric eyewall features with strong rainbands. Winds had reached 90 kts (10-min avg) by this time and continued to increase as the storm neared landfall. Eline was being steered on the northwesterly course by a subtropical ridge located to the south-southwest of the cyclone. Intense Tropical Cyclone Eline began to make landfall about 40 nm south of Beira around 0300 UTC. MFR estimated the maximum 10-min avg winds to be around 100 kts at landfall. JTWC's 22/1200 UTC warning indicated that the MSW (1-min avg) near the time of landfall was 115 kts, so this agrees well with RSMC La Reunion's assessment. So once more this remarkable cyclone had intensified rapidly from minimal cyclone strength into an intense cyclone in about 18 hours when on the verge of making landfall. By 1200 UTC Eline was well inland about 50 nm southwest of Beira. MFR had quickly downgraded the winds to 45 kts, but JTWC reported the MSW (1-min avg) at 100 kts. This was based strictly on satellite intensity estimates, however, and it seems quite unlikely that actual sustained winds to 100 kts would still be occurring almost ten hours after the center had made landfall--at least based on the behavior of landfalling Atlantic hurricanes in the United States. By 0000 UTC on 23 Feb the weakening Eline had moved west-northwestward into eastern Zimbabwe and both JTWC and MFR issued their final warnings. A well-defined cloud system could be seen in satellite imagery for several days drifting slowly across the southern African continent. Tropical Cyclone Eline was quite destructive to Madagascar. One report received by the author indicated that 10,000 persons were homeless and over 22,000 completely isolated due to flooding in the wake of Eline and Tropical Storm Gloria which struck the northern portion of the island in early March. The towns of Mahanoro and Vatomandry were reportedly about 80% destroyed. A report from OCHA (Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs) dated 23 Feb indicated that Eline caused six deaths on Madagascar--two deaths were reported in Antananarivo, the capital, where roofs were blown away and trees uprooted. However, these figures were rather early, and in the author's opinion, the death toll was likely much higher. There were some media reports which indicated that much of the populace along the eastern coast of Madagascar had little advance warning of the cyclone's approach. In Mozambique the specific effects of Tropical Cyclone Eline are very difficult, if not impossible, to distinguish from the disastrous flooding already taking place when the storm made landfall. Heavier than normal rainfall during the summer had led to widespread and severe flooding beginning in late January, and had already reached disastrous proportions by the time Eline made landfall in late February. About all that can be said with certainty is that the cyclone exacerbated the situation to some degree. Prior to Eline's arrival in Mozambique the flooding had already displaced 300,000 people while affecting as many as 800,000. Roads, bridges, and other infrastructure items were severely damaged. As of the end of March one report stated that the flooding was reponsible for over 1000 fatalities with over 4 million persons displaced and/or significantly affected. The death toll could likely be much higher as large numbers of bodies were swept away by the flooding waters. Two small fishing boats were sunk off Beira with the presumed loss of the crews. A special thanks to Matthew Saxby, Jean Marc de Maroussem, Patrick Hoareau, and Kelly Sponberg for sending me information on the effects of Eline and the flooding disaster in Africa. For those who are interested, much more information can be found at the following website: Tropical Storm Felicia (TC-12S / SIO #7) 19 - 24 February ----------------------------------------- An area of convection had developed by 17 Feb near 13S, 81E in the monsoon trough southeast of Diego Garcia. A scatterometer pass indicated a broad LLCC with associated convection over a wide area. CIMSS shear charts indicated weak vertical shear over the area with fair outflow. By 19 Feb the disturbed area was approximately 400 nm southeast of Diego Garcia with still poorly-organized but persistent convection. MFR began issuing bulletins on disturbance #7 with winds near the center of 25 kts but with some localized winds to 30 kts possible well away from the center under the heavier convection. The system was classified as a tropical storm by MFR at 20/0000 UTC when it was located about 500 nm south-southeast of Diego Garcia, and had been named Felicia by Mauritius by 0600 UTC. The 10-min avg MSW were estimated at 40 kts. JTWC had not initiated warnings at this time but did issue a Formation Alert at 0530 UTC. Felicia was moving on a generally west-southwesterly course at this time which later became more southwesterly. The storm was temporarily downgraded to a tropical depression by MFR at 1800 UTC but was reclassified as a tropical storm twelve hours later. JTWC initiated warnings at 21/0000 UTC, placing the center about 675 nm east-northeast of Rodrigues Island with 35-kt winds (1-min avg). An ERS-2 scatterometer pass at 20/1815 UTC indicated an elongated LLCC with winds of 25-30 kts to the west with strong convection organizing on that side. Felicia was undergoing some northeasterly shear but continued to slowly intensify as a band of convection began to develop south of the center. At 22/0000 UTC JTWC estimated the MSW (1-min) to be 45 kts based on satellite intensity estimates of 30 and 55 kts. Microwave imagery depicted strong convection organizing on the west side of the LLCC in a developing banding feature. The storm had good outflow to the south and fair in other quadrants. JTWC maintained the 45-kt MSW at 1200 UTC but MFR increased their estimate to 55 kts at 0600 UTC and to 60 kts by 1800 UTC. Felicia was located about 385 nm due east of Rodrigues Island at 22/0000 UTC and thereafter began to move on more of a south- southwesterly track. JTWC assigned its peak MSW estimate of 50 kts at 23/0000 UTC. A mid-level trough to the west was building equatorward and was expected to turn Felicia to the south and then southeast, but the severe tropical storm continued to move south-southwestward throughout its life. Animated infrared and visible satellite imagery showed convection being sheared to the southeast away from the LLCC--the shear being caused by the approaching trough. At 1200 UTC JTWC decreased the MSW (1-min) to 40 kts (based on CI numbers of 35 and 55 kts), but MFR maintained Felicia at 60 kts through 1200 UTC, then began to decrease the intensity estimates rather quickly. At 0000 UTC on 24 Feb the weakening storm was still tracking south- southwestward at 10 kts. JTWC assigned a MSW estimate of 30 kts and wrote their last warning; MFR had decreased Felicia's intensity to 40 kts by this time. The storm displayed an exposed LLCC with rapidly decaying convection being sheared southeastward; also, dry air was starting to be entrained into the system. MFR wrote their final warning at 0600 UTC, estimating the MSW (10-min) at 30 kts and judging the system to be transitioning into an extratropical LOW. The final MFR position placed the dissipating Felicia about 665 nm south- southeast of Rodrigues Island. Tropical Storm Gloria (TC-15S / SIO #8) 28 February - 5 March ---------------------------------------- At 27/0930 UTC JTWC issued a Formation Alert on a hitherto previously unmentioned area of convection east of northern Madagascar, with a LLCC located near 13.9S, 61.8E. Microwave imagery at 27/0155 UTC suggested that at least a well-defined mid-level circulation had formed within the convective area. The cloud pattern was becoming more circular and upper-level outflow was improving since vertical shear across the region had decreased, and the Formation Alert noted that rapid intensification might be possible due to the well-developed mid-level circulation and the recent increase in deep convection near the center. MFR initiated bulletins on the system as disturbance #8 at 0600 UTC on the 28th when the system was located roughly 600 nm east-southeast of the northern tip of Madagascar. Winds were estimated at 25 kts with some 30-kt winds possible locally in areas to the south of the center. JTWC began issuing warnings at 1200 UTC with the MSW estimated at 30 kts (1-min avg). Convective organization had continued to improve with good outflow to the west but restricted to the east. The system was expected to intensify slowly due to moderate easterly shear. At 29/0000 UTC JTWC upped the MSW to 35 kts and MFR upgraded the LOW to a tropical depression. The depression was moving westward under the steering influence of a large subtropical ridge to the south. There was some moderate vertical shear present and the majority of the deep convection was located west of the LLCC. JTWC increased the MSW to 40 kts at 1200 UTC based on a convective bursting near the center. Outflow was excellent to the west but poor to the east due to the shear. At 29/1800 UTC the center of the depression was located approximately 300 nm east of the northern tip of Madagascar and was moving somewhat north of due west. The system began to show definite signs of strengthening on 1 Mar. JTWC had increased their MSW estimate to 45 kts at 0000 UTC and to 55 kts at 1200 UTC. The depression had become Tropical Storm Gloria at 0600 UTC, and by 1200 UTC was moving southwestward at 9 kts. Gloria's center made landfall in Madagascar around 1800 UTC near Antsirabe. JTWC's MSW estimate (1-min avg) at landfall was 65 kts. This was based on infrared imagery and a SSM/I pass at 1725 UTC which showed a 15-nm wide closed eye along the coast. MFR's intensity estimate at landfall was somewhat lower at 45 kts (10-min avg). By 02/0000 UTC Gloria was inland over Madagascar and weakening. JTWC reported the MSW to be 45 kts based on satellite intensity estimates of 35 and 45 kts (the MFR warning at this time was not available to the author). At 0600 UTC Gloria had weakened into a depression and MFR issued its final warning. JTWC continued to follow the weak system for the next three days as it drifted south- westward across the northern and central portions of Madagascar. Gloria's remnants maintained a LLCC fairly well for over 24 hours after landfall, but gradually became more diffuse and difficult to locate. Apparently JTWC continued to issue warnings since re-intensification over the Mozambique Channel was consistently forecast. The weak center appeared to have emerged into the Channel by around 0600 UTC on 4 Mar. There was some isolated convection with low-level cumulus and stratocumulus clouds wrapping into the LLCC. By 1200 UTC some new convection was developing south and east of the center. At 0000 UTC on 5 Mar JTWC still forecast some very modest intensification, but at 0600 UTC the final warning was written. The weak and fully-exposed LLCC was located about 70 nm west of Morondava with weak, isolated convection about 100 nm east of the center over land. Synoptic data showed surface pressures near 1010 mb and winds averaging less than 10 kts around the LLCC. 200-mb analysis and CIMSS shear charts also revealed an environment unfavorable for strengthening. Tropical Storm Gloria brought heavy rainfall to northern Madagascar. An island (Nosy Be) near northwestern Madagascar reported 165 mm of rain in the 24 hours ending at 0600 UTC on 2 Mar (the monthly average is 295 mm). Mananjary recorded 427 mm in a 48-hour period ending at 05/0600 UTC. (Mananjary's average monthly rainfall is 478 mm.) The highest death toll available to the author was 137. Andapa was the most severely affected city with 40 dead and 33 unaccounted for. Over 100 homes were destroyed there with widespread structural damage occurring. Also, an outbreak of cholera added to the misery of the population. The road linking this region to the capital was rendered unpassable, and this was expected to have a substantial negative impact on the region's economy. (A special thanks to Patrick Hoareau, Jean Marc de Maroussem, and Matthew Saxby for passing along information on the effects of Gloria in Madagascar.) ADDENDUM to JANUARY SUMMARY --------------------------- Arvind Mungur of London sent me some information on Tropical Cyclone Connie which he had gleaned from the Mauritian daily _Le Mauricien_. Connie passed about 130 nm northwest of Mauritius on 28 Jan and a peak gust of 73 kts was recorded on the island with a 24-hour rainfall total of 262 mm reported. *********************************************************************** AUSTRALIAN REGION (AUG) - From Longitude 90E Eastward to Longitude 160E Activity for February: 1 tropical LOW 1 tropical cyclone of gale intensity ** 1 tropical cyclone of storm intensity 1 severe tropical cyclone (hurricane) ** - This system, Tropical Cyclone Marcia, was never carried as a tropical cyclone by JTWC. The primary sources of information for Australian Region tropical cyclones are the warnings and bulletins issued by the three TCWCs at Perth, Darwin, and Brisbane. Information gleaned from JTWC's warnings is used as a supplement for times when it was impossible to obtain Australian bulletins and for comparison purposes. References to sustained winds should be understood as being based on a 10-min averaging period unless otherwise noted. Matthew Saxby, a tropical cyclone enthusiast from Queanbeyan, New South Wales, Australia, typed up the tracks for the cyclones and LOWs in the Australian Region. Also, Carl Smith, another dedicated tropical cyclone enthusiast from the Gold Coast of Queensland, sent reports he had written for Tropical Cyclones Steve, Leon, and Marcia. Also, Lori Chappel of the Darwin TCWC sent me a report on Cyclone Steve's passage through the Darwin AOR. Most of the material presented below is based upon these reports. A special thanks to Lori, Carl and Matthew for passing along the information to me. A description of the Australian Cyclone Severity Scale can be found in Chris Landsea's FAQ on HRD's website: on Michael Bath's Australian Severe Weather site: or on the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's official website: Click on the link 'Cyclone Severity Categories' Carl Smith has a website on which he has placed his full reports on the various cyclones in the Australian Region this season, as well as map animations which he has created for the storms. The URL is: Links to various reports and map animations can be found under the link 'TC Reports & Map Animations'. Australian Region Activity for February --------------------------------------- Tropical cyclone activity in the Australian Region picked up somewhat in February with three cyclones being named during the month as opposed to only one in January. Tropical Cyclone Leon reached hurricane intensity early in the month in the Southeast Indian Ocean, weakened, then moved across 90E into the Southwest Indian basin to become the long-lived and destructive Tropical Cyclone Eline. Marcia was a short-lived, marginal cyclone which popped up around mid-month in waters to the southeast of Cocos Island. Another tropical LOW was getting organized off Western Australia as the month ended and intensified into Severe Tropical Cyclone Norman in early March. In the Coral Sea what appeared to be a rapidly developing midget cyclone warranted three warnings from Brisbane on 19 Feb, but the system just as quickly began to weaken. The first warning, issued at 19/0100 UTC, had placed the LOW's center about 225 nm east-southeast of Townsville, or near the Creal Reef AWS. At 1900 UTC on 18 Feb the station had reported 10-min mean winds of 31 kts with the pressure dropping to 1006.1 mb. Initially, the LOW displayed a good cloud signature in visible satellite imagery through 19/0500 UTC as it was under very diffluent upper-level flow. However, it then moved under unfavorable southerly flow and weakened rapidly. The LOW moved northeastward in the direction of Lihou Reef where it became stationary and ill-defined. The LOW which was the precursor of Tropical Cyclone Steve developed in the same general area a few days later and there is a possibility that Steve was a redevelopment of the earlier LOW. This second LOW intensified rapidly on 26 Feb while approaching the Cairns, Queensland area into a near-hurricane. After weakening over land, the ex-Steve LOW re-intensified in the Gulf of Carpentaria and made a second landfall in the western Gulf region on 1 Mar, weakened again, and later re-intensified a third time in the Southeast Indian Ocean and made two more subsequent landfalls in Australia. I have chosen to split the coverage of Steve between the February and March summaries. (Most of the data on the LOW of 19 Feb came from Jeff Callaghan of the Brisbane TCWC--a special thanks to Jeff for passing the information along.) Severe Tropical Cyclone Leon-Eline (TC-11S) 3 - 23 February ------------------------------------------- On 3 Feb at 0100 UTC the Perth TCWC issued a High Seas Warning for a 1000-mb tropical LOW which had developed about 325 nm east of Christmas Island and was moving west-southwestward at 5 kts. At 1400 UTC JTWC issued a Formation Alert on the LOW. Animated infrared satellite imagery revealed disorganised but persistent convection associated with a LLCC. CIMSS analysis indicated weak to moderate vertical shear over the area and animated water vapour imagery depicted fair outflow aloft. JTWC issued their first warning for TC-11S at 04/0300 UTC with the MSW (1-min avg) estimated at 30 kts. Data from a scatterometer pass indicated an elongated LLCC. About this time a boat carrying 500 (apparently) refugees from the Middle East arrived on Christmas Island, and the seas kicked up by the LOW were so rough that the boat had to be escorted into a bay on the leeward side of the island where the people were removed a few at a time by small boat. At 0400 UTC BoM Perth upgraded the LOW to Tropical Cyclone Leon with 45-kt winds, located about 115 nm south-southeast of Christmas Island, and moving west-southwestward at 10 kts. Leon quickly gained intensity whilst moving on a track that became more southwesterly. Peak intensity of 960 mb and 75-kt MSW (10-min avg) was attained at 1000 UTC on 5 Feb about 300 nm south-southwest of Christmas Island. (This was per BoM Perth's analysis--JTWC reported the 1-min avg MSW at only 55 kts at this point.) Following this, Perth's MSW dropped slightly to 65 kts but then increased again to 70 kts by 06/0400 UTC. JTWC's 1-min avg MSW estimate had also increased to 70 kts by this juncture. Convective organisation had improved during this period but enhanced infrared imagery showed that the cyclone was undergoing some northeasterly shear. SSM/I imagery on the 6th revealed that the LLCC was under the northeastern region of the convection and that the convection had become more symmetric. However, on 7 Feb warnings from both agencies indicated a weakening trend as the upper-level anticyclone weakened and shifted east of the LLCC, thereby increasing northerly vertical shear. Leon's track turned to a westerly heading with the storm passing about 275 nm south of Cocos Island around 0400 UTC on the 7th. Weakening continued as Leon approached the western boundary of BoM Perth's AOR with most of the significant convection sheared to the south of the LLCC. MSW were down to around 40 kts by the time Leon crossed 90E into the Southwest Indian basin at a point about 500 nm west-southwest of Cocos Island and was renamed Eline by the Mauritius Meteorological Service. Although at this point it looked as if Leon-Eline were on its last leg, subsequent warnings from JTWC forecast a regeneration of the system. While the storm remained quite weak for several days, it did ultimately re-intensify and before it was through, had traveled almost one-quarter of the way around the globe and made two destructive landfalls in the western portion of the South Indian Ocean. The history of this system as Tropical Cyclone Eline is detailed in the section of this summary covering the Southwest Indian basin. Tropical Cyclone Marcia 15 - 21 February ----------------------- A Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Indian Ocean issued by BoM Perth at 0400 UTC on 15 Feb mentioned a 1000-mb tropical LOW located about 290 nm east-southeast of Cocos Island. The first warning, issued at 0900 UTC, located the center somewhat farther to the south and east. The system remained basically quasi-stationary over the next day or two with a slight increase in organisation. The LOW was upgraded to Tropical Cyclone Marcia at 0300 UTC on 16 Feb at a point roughly 325 nm east-southeast of Cocos Island. JTWC issued a Formation Alert at 0500 UTC which stated that winds were estimated to be 25-30 kts in the area. Animated visible and infrared satellite imagery indicated a well-defined LLCC within the monsoon trough with convection continuing to organise around the center. By 1000 UTC the estimated CP and MSW (10-min avg) were 992 mb and 45 kts, respectively, and Marcia was moving east-southeastward at 3 kts. The Perth warning at 1600 UTC relocated Marcia's centre about 35 nm east of the previous warning position. The marginal cyclone was looking less impressive by this time and winds were dropped to 40 kts. Perth issued their final warning at 17/0400 UTC with Marcia centered about 375 nm south-southwest of Christmas Island. Winds were expected to moderate below gale force within the next six hours. Perth continued to mention the system in daily Tropical Weather Outlooks for a couple of days, and JTWC issued daily Formation Alerts through 19/0500 UTC, but never commenced issuing warnings. (If this system had been in the Northwest Pacific basin where JTWC's warning criteria is more liberal, likely it would have been classified as a tropical depression.) The ill-defined LOW continued to drift generally southeastward for a couple of days, as tracked by JTWC in their daily STWOs, being last mentioned on 21 Feb when it was located roughly over 400 nm to the south-southeast of Christmas Island. Tropical Cyclone Steve (TC-14P) 25 February - 12 March -------------------------------- On 25 Feb a developing tropical LOW with a CP of 1000 mb was located approximately 300 nm east-southeast of Cooktown on the Queensland coast. Satellite-derived wind data indicated extensive areas of west to northwesterly winds averaging between 30 and 40 kts to the north and northeast of the centre. (This LOW was possibly a redevelopment of the LOW for which Brisbane issued three warnings on 19 Feb. See comments in the introductory paragraphs above for more information on the earlier system.) The system moved westward, slowly becoming better organised, and by 26/1800 UTC was located about 115 nm east of Port Douglas with the pressure having fallen to 996 mb. JTWC issued its first warning at 1800 UTC, estimating the MSW (1-min avg) at 35 kts based upon satellite current intensity estimates of 30 kts and a synoptic observation of a 10-min mean wind of 32 kts. Infrared imagery indicated continued organisation of the system with convection building over the LLCC. At 2000 UTC, in a special marine warning, the Brisbane TCWC named the LOW Tropical Cyclone Steve, placing the center about 100 nm east- northeast of Cairns. The CP was reported as 994 mb and the maximum 10-min avg winds were estimated at 40 kts. Steve remained stationary for several hours and then began to move generally on a west- southwesterly track toward the coast. Animated water vapour imagery revealed good outflow aloft--especially to the north--and weak vertical wind shear across the region. Shortly after being named as a cyclone, Steve began to intensify rather rapidly. By 27/0100 UTC the cyclone was centered about 65 nm east-northeast of Cairns with the CP having fallen to 988 mb and the MSW (10-min avg) estimated at 50 kts. Cyclone Steve crossed the coastline in the Cairns area around 0900 UTC with an attendant CP of 975 mb and MSW (10-min avg) likely in the 60-65 kt range. The eye passed very close to Green Island where a 10-min mean wind of 62 kts with gusts to 85 kts was recorded at 0830 UTC. Landfall was slightly to the north of Cairns which measured a maximum 10-min wind of 56 kts and peak gusts to 77 kts around 0851 UTC. The exact center seems to have passed over Kuranda which, unfortunately, does not send in weather observations. The radius of gales for Steve was very small--on the order of 15-20 nm. The 10-min avg maximum wind observations from Cairns and Green Island would translate into a 1-min avg MSW of around 65-70 kts, making Steve a minimal hurricane by Northern Hemisphere standards--well above the 40-kt MSW estimated by JTWC shortly before landfall. The contention that midget cyclones are often much more intense than they sometimes appear--an idea often espoused by Mark Lander--is certainly supported by this case. (Most of the above meteorological information was sent by Sue Oates of BoM Brisbane to Matthew Saxby, who in turn forwarded it to Carl Smith and myself.) Rainfall totals were not exceptionally large for a tropical cyclone. Some of the higher totals from the area include Kuranda - 291 mm; Mt. Sophia - 269 mm; and Mareeba - 218 mm. However, Cairns recorded its wettest February on record with the suburb of Manunda measuring 1462.7 mm and Bartlefrere recording 3376 mm. In the Cairns area many trees were uprooted and some buildings were unroofed. Hundreds of homes reportedly suffered damage to some degree with more than 40,000 homes without electrical power. Many roads were blocked with downed trees and the Bruce Highway was cut by flooding. In Cairns a really giant fig tree was uprooted with the entire root system out of the ground. It apparently became the "cool" thing for tourists to have their photos taken standing by the tree--the root bowl being taller than some adults of shorter stature. By 1200 UTC Steve had been downgraded to a Category 1 cyclone on the Australian Cyclone Scale when it was about 40 nm west of Cairns, moving west at 16 kts. Some gales with gusts to 60 kts were still being felt along the coast and adjacent inland areas between Cairns and Port Douglas but were expected to ease within a few hours. The final advice (for the time being) was issued by Brisbane at 1300 UTC, downgrading Steve to a LOW which was continuing to move further inland while weakening. The LOW moved somewhat to the west-southwest and by around 0730 UTC on 28 Feb was located near Normanton, southeast of the Gulf of Carpentaria. By 1330 UTC the system had changed direction and was moving west-northwestward over water in the Gulf of Carpentaria about 40 nm northwest of Karumba. A strong mid-level circulation was maintained under a divergent upper trough while the system was over land, and as soon as the center moved back over water, the LOW began to regain intensity and was renamed Cyclone Steve by Darwin at 28/2230 UTC. The cyclone was located near Mornington Island and was moving west-northwestward at 8 kts. Gales with gusts to 65 kts were being experienced between Mornington Island and the Queensland/Northern Territory border. After regaining cyclone status Steve initially continued moving to the west-northwest, then turned to a westerly course as it approached the Northern Territory coast along the western Gulf of Carpentaria. With warm SSTs and good to excellent upper-level outflow in all quadrants, the storm intensified slightly with the MSW increasing to 45 kts (per both Darwin and JTWC) by the time Steve made landfall around 0000 UTC on 1 Mar near Bing Bong. Centre Island reported gales from 2030-2230 UTC on 29 Feb as the cyclone approached and passed just north of the AWS. The maximum 10-min mean wind was 38 kts at 2224 UTC with the peak gust of 50 kts occurring at 2145 UTC. The cyclone moved across the Bing Bong port office after passing Centre Island. A minimum pressure of 987 mb was reported but mean winds were no more than 20-25 kts (as estimated from white caps on the water visible from the office). A calm lasting about 45 minutes was observed as the center passed by. Damage from Steve in this portion of Australia was very light. No damage was reported from Bing Bong, while Borroloola township, about 60 km inland from Bing Bong, reported some uprooting of small trees. After making its second landfall Tropical Cyclone Steve continued westward across the Northern Territory, maintaining a strong low- to mid-level circulation. Gale-force winds were observed in the Timor Sea in the monsoon westerly flow to the north of the LOW and storm- force wind gusts were observed across the Top End. The LOW moved just south of the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf and into the Kimberley region of Western Australia, and once more reformed into a cyclone just north of Broome on 5 March. The subsequent history of Tropical Cyclone Steve in the Timor Sea and Southeast Indian Ocean will be covered in the March summary. *********************************************************************** SOUTHWEST PACIFIC (SWP) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E Activity for February: 1 tropical depression 1 tropical cyclone of hurricane intensity Most of the information presented below was taken from the operational warnings and advisories issued by the Fiji TCWC at Nadi. References to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period unless otherwise noted. Also, the basic definition of a cyclone in WMO Region 5 (Australia and the South Pacific) has the unique requirement that a depression must have gale-force winds more-or-less completely surrounding the center before the system is named as a tropical cyclone. Hence, often gales of 35-40 kts may be present in one or two quadrants but the system is not considered a tropical cyclone. Last season Fiji initiated their own numbering scheme for tropical disturbances (01F, 02F, etc) that form in the Nadi AOR. Some of the numbered disturbances never warrant depression status. The report on Tropical Cyclone Kim was written by Alipate Waqaicelua, Chief Forecaster at the Nadi TCWC, with only minimal editing by myself. Also, I received some information on damage caused by Kim from Steve Ready of the New Zealand Meteorological Service. A very special thanks to Alipate and Steve for sending along the information. Southwest Pacific Activity for February --------------------------------------- One tropical cyclone, Kim, came to life in the South Pacific east of 160E during February, and surprisingly was unusually far to the east of the normal cyclogenetical region--in the very edge of the tropics to the southeast of French Polynesia. Most people expect tropical cyclone formation to occur this far east only during warm ENSO events (El Ninos), but according to information received from Steve Ready of the New Zealand Meteorological Service, tropical cyclones of higher- latitude origin do occasionally develop in this region during La Nina seasons. In February, 1989, Tropical Cyclone Hinano developed near 27.0S, 127.3W while at about the same time Tropical Cyclone Judy formed near 19.0S, 152.0W. Both of these systems were midgets which sported eyes in satellite imagery. Also, Tropical Cyclone Frances became a hurricane near 25.0S, 150.0W in February, 1976, during another strong La Nina. All three of these cyclones had a pronounced westerly component to their tracks. Also, in some correspondence from months back, Mark Lander mentioned that the Southeast Pacific was the only area outside the North Atlantic and the Northwestern Pacific which normally has a well-developed TUTT which occasionally helps to trigger the formation of higher-latitude midget tropical cyclones. In addition to Tropical Cyclone Kim, another system was designated as Tropical Depression 13F at the end of the month. This depression formed about 125 nm north of Noumea in New Caledonia on 28 Feb and subsequently moved south-southeastward and into the Wellington AOR on the 29th. Gale warnings were issued on 29 Feb as gale-force winds were forecast to be occurring in the southern semicircle well-removed from the center. Tropical Cyclone Kim (TC-13P / TC-11F) 23 - 29 February --------------------------------------- A tropical depression was analysed by RSMC Nadi over the south- eastern parts of French Polynesia (near 23.3S, 134.0W), approximately 60 nm east-southeast of Rikitea or about 270 nm northwest of Pitcairn Island at 23/1800 UTC, moving slowly northwestward. The system was being subjected to significant shear as the LLCC was clearly exposed at some distance northwest of the deep convection. Aloft, at 250 mb, the depression was situated just west of an upper-level ridge axis. A little over 24 hours later, no substantial change had occurred, except for convection beginning to develop about the LLCC. However, by 24/1200 UTC, convection had erupted over the LLCC and cooled considerably. Spiral bands were also better organised and wrapping with more curvature amid the presence of some shear. At this time, the depression was moving westward about 5 kts and was located just west of Rikitea. The system continued to develop further through the night, and by 24/1800 UTC was named Tropical Cyclone Kim about 40 nm west of Rikitea or about 200 nm southeast of Mururoa. Twelve hours later, at 25/0600 UTC, Kim attained storm force (48 kts) and reached hurricane intensity at 25/1200 UTC after a ragged eye was observed on satellite imagery only 18 hours after being named. At this stage the cyclone was being steered west-southwestward with anticipation of a gradual turn and eventual southwesterly track into New Zealand's AOR. Kim continued to intensify with deep convection cooling further and the rather broad eye at 25/1800 UTC becoming well-defined and contracting. After 26/0000 UTC the cyclone also gradually picked up speed under the strengthening mid-level north- easterly steering regime. Primary responsibility for warnings on Tropical Cyclone Kim was handed over to New Zealand after 26/0600 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Kim reached its peak intensity of 80 kts (10-min avg) six hours later at 1200 UTC, still moving to the southwest. The storm was then located over 500 nm west of Pitcairn Island or more than 700 nm southeast of Tahiti. The estimated minimum CP in Kim was 955 mb, and the estimated peak 1-min avg MSW from NPMOC was 100 kts, which agrees quite well with Wellington's assessment. After reaching its peak, the cyclone began to steadily weaken as it continued to trek toward the southwest over increasingly cooler SSTs. By 29/0600 UTC Kim was becoming extratropical as it still moved southwestward nearly 1000 nm south of Tahiti. No damage reports have been received as yet, even though, from its track, it can be inferred that damage, if any, especially in Rikitea, would be either minimal or negligible. Kim was probably a hybrid (with more baroclinic traits) that gradually and eventually developed deep convection all around the LLCC and hence attained tropical cyclone characteristics further south than usual. Kim developed in an area of a fairly warm SST anomaly--approximately 2 to 3 deg Celsius warmer than average. Some information received later from Steve Ready of the New Zealand Meteorological Service: During the early stages of its development, Kim passed over the islands of Rikitea about 1200 UTC on 24 Feb. Rikitea recorded a maximum 10-min avg wind of 27 kts, a peak gust of 52 kts, and a minimum pressure of 996 mb. During its hurricane phase Kim passed to the east and south of the island of Rapa on 27 and 28 Feb. The lowest pressure of 995.8 mb was reported when the eye was located about 80 nm from the island. The maximum 10-min avg wind was less than 30 kts and the peak gust was 74 kts. Rapa lay on the more sheltered side of the cyclone. According to Jacki Pilon, Meteo France in French Polynesia, there was no loss of life and material damage was relatively minor--just a few trees were uprooted and a few less substantial homes lost their corrugated iron roofing. *********************************************************************** EXTRA FEATURE In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and acronyms. I have tried to define most of these with the first usage in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then. Most of these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a few aren't clear to some. To remedy this I developed a Glossary of Abbreviations and Acronyms which I included in the July, 1998 summary. I will include this glossary from time to time, primarily in "lean" months without a lot of tropical cyclone activity to cover. But if anyone missed receiving it and wishes to obtain a copy, send me an e-mail privately and I'll forward them a copy. *********************************************************************** AUTHOR'S NOTE: This summary should be considered a very preliminary overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers. The information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning centers will be passed along from time to time. The track files are not being sent via e-mail. They can be retrieved in the following manner: (a) FTP to: hrd-type42.nhc.noaa.gov [140.90.176.206] (b) Login as: anonymous (c) For a password use your e-mail address (d) Go to "data" subdirectory (Type: cd data) (e) Set file type to ASCII (Type: ascii) (f) Transfer file (Type: get remote_file_name local_file_name ) (The files will be named with an obvious nomenclature--using February as an example: feb00.tracks) (g) To exit FTP, type: quit Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files created in DOS editor. Download to disk and use a viewer such as Notepad or DOS editor to view the files. The first summary in this series covered the month of October, 1997. If anyone wishes to retrieve any of the previous summaries, they may be downloaded from the aforementioned FTP site at HRD. The summary files are catalogued with the nomenclature: feb00.sum, for example. Back issues can also be obtained from the following websites (courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Tom Berg, Michael Pitt, and Rich Henning): Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office. Their site contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones globally on a monthly basis. The URL is: TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE I have discovered that JTWC now has available on its new website the complete Annual Tropical Cyclone Report (ATCR) for 1998 (1997-1998 season for the Southern Hemisphere). Also, ATCRs for earlier years are available also. The URL is: Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor" tracking charts for the 1999 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones; also, preliminary storm reports for all the 1999 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones are now available. The URL is: Prepared by: Gary Padgett E-mail: garyp@alaweb.com Phone: 334-222-5327 (nights & weekends) / 850-882-2594 (weekdays) *********************************************************************** ***********************************************************************